Bruno Bets said:
Will someone just post the write-up then and end this?
Fezzik| NFL Sidedime bet 429 NEP 3.0 (-115) Bookmaker.comvs 430 CAR
Results: L, -$115
Analysis:
PROP PLAYS!
BRADY OVER 23.5 Completions -120, 2 stars.
3rd QTR higher scoring -120 vs. 1st QTR scoring, 1 star.
GAME TOTAL: LEAN UNDER. If we see 47.5, I will add UNDER for 1 star.
You simply cannot run on Carolina. AND Carolina will put pressure on your Qb. Belichick knows this, and look for his game plan to be lots of short passes. Now this is obvious, and against a top tier coach, I'd worry the other team would know this is coming, and game plan for it, but I don't think Carolina is going to change anything they have been doing given their success of late. Further, NE IS the dog in the game, sure they pass more than most teams with the lead, but here expect a very close game, and NE could be trailing which helps this prop. Vereen, DannyA, Gronk all playing.....mid year with no receivers, and no familiarity, NE offense was crippled......NOW they have their players back.Further, NE had their share of bad weather games this year. The total is SKYROCKETING up to 47. That's NOT because of Carolina.....clearly the sharp bettors expect NE to air it out tonight.....however, this total is now getting out of control high, IMO.
Carolina games average 5 points in the 1st quarter, 9 in the 3rd quarter. Ne games are also higher scoring in the 3rd quarter. LAST year, NE OVER 9.5 3rd qtr was a weekly winner.....however, they have been lower scoring this year. Still, both teams clearly see games higher scoring in the 3Q......this prop is at Bookmaker, I'd lay up to -140 on it without blinking.....
**I will be tweeting during the game timouts @Fezziksports. The Key Word is "AUBURN" if I lead with that word, it is an official play.
429 Patriots +3, 1 star. +3-110 are popping up all over, that should be the price you pay.
Our pregame.TV Videos have been very popular. This past week, I was on Ten/Indy OVER 42, Boise -22.5 and the Pats will hopefully finish the hat trick with three easy winners. In a Video 2 months ago, I recommended taking Caro +3 as a free play in this very game.
I actually bet Caro AGAIN 15 days ago pk in this matchup. NOW, Caro is laying 3. To put this in perspective, Caro has gone (on a novig Moneyline) from +150 to +100 from 9/1 to 11/1, and from +100 to -150 IN TWO SHORT WEEKS! No question, Carolina has had an impressive run, but that's just too big an adjustment, espeically with NE Getting THEIR offensive players back! Shane Vereen is probable. Gronk is playing . Danny A.is playing. Brady and the playmakers vs. Cam Newton. Belichick vs. Ron Rivera.
I have Pats Power Rated as 4 points better than an average team, that makes them a slightly better team than Carolina. Further, Belichick HATS being disrespected. The last 5 teams the Pats have been put in a Dog role they are 5-0 ATS.
A normal team off a bye week might have spent the week in Mexico (Aka Tony Romo), but you know the NE coaching staff has been working 24/7 for 15 days prepping. Meanwhile, Carolina is fat drunk and happy off a rock and roll winning streak and a 53 yard fg to win @SF 10-9, a signature win. (They beat az, minny, stl, tb, atl , Timothy Lupus and Rudy Stein prior to that).
I can just hear Rivera after that 49ers win saying'GREAT JOB ALL! Take the rest of Monday and Tues off, and we get back to business Wednesday!!
We bet Caro earlier in the year since we knew we could dump it/scalp it, AND IT's TIME TO DO SO! Pats +3, 1 fine wager..... (note I strongly considered upgrading this to a 2 unit play, but since I only have a net 1 unit position on NE, I did not want to sell it as such).
Pick Made: Nov 17 2013 11:15PM PST