In-Depth Breakdown: Shedeur Sanders and the Saints Draft Fit
This long-form summary thoroughly analyzes Dave Essler's commentary on Shedeur Sanders’ draft outlook. It dissects every major claim, betting strategy, player insight, and team logic over a full 3-minute monologue. The discussion leans heavily into the analytical side of sports betting, draft strategy, and quarterback market dynamics, all with the aim of explaining why the New Orleans Saints might be the perfect landing spot for Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft.
? Speaker Breakdown and Timeline Analysis
0:00 – 0:30 | Intro to Quarterback Market
Speaker: Dave Essler
Essler opens with a clear framing: this is a “quarterback update” for the NFL Draft, with a laser focus on Shedeur Sanders. He compares Sanders with Cam Ward, who is considered a lock for the first quarterback off the board, with virtually unbeatable odds of 20,000 to one.
“Everyone expects Cam Ward to go number one…”
Sanders, while a strong candidate, has 20 to one odds to go first. That alone puts him in a second-tier status entering the draft conversation.
0:30 – 1:10 | Uncertainty Around Sanders' Draft Order
Essler shifts focus to Sanders’ uncertain placement as the second quarterback. He notes:
“He’s the odds-on favorite to be the second quarterback taken—but where?”
However, he warns that Jackson Dart is gaining momentum, throwing off the assumption that Sanders will easily be the #2 QB. A team-by-team breakdown begins:
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Cleveland Browns: not drafting a quarterback.
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Giants: just acquired QBs, not in the market.
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Patriots: targeting Will Campbell instead.
1:10 – 1:40 | Draft Pathway Toward Saints
Essler continues down the draft board:
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Raiders: signed Geno Smith.
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Jets: picked up Justin Fields.
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Panthers: sticking with Bryce Young.
Only by pick #9 does Sanders' window open. That pick belongs to the New Orleans Saints, who reportedly were interested in QBs before committing to Derek Carr.
“That brings us all the way to the ninth pick before there's a chance of a second quarterback being taken.”
1:40 – 2:00 | Betting Odds Deep Dive
Essler goes granular with odds:
These numbers signify low likelihoods for early selections. He concludes:
“Odds are he's not going anywhere but New Orleans.”
He then makes a direct bet prediction: Sanders to go at pick 9.
2:00 – 2:30 | Saints’ QB Situation & Betting Tactics
Essler assesses the Saints:
“The Saints’ future isn’t—and never was—Derek Carr.”
He expresses skepticism that Sanders is a franchise savior but acknowledges that Carr isn’t either. Betting options emerge:
Essler notes all of this is “chalky”—safe, conservative betting—but profitable.
2:30 – 3:02 | QB Market and Final Predictions
He forecasts that Jackson Dart will also go in Round 1, expanding the market beyond just Sanders and Ward. He mentions:
Bears at pick #10 may trade down if another team wants Sanders. Final take:
“I’m going to bet Sanders to be taken ninth… Saints’ first pick to be offensive… over 2.5 QBs taken.”
He ends with a confident sign-off: “Good luck. Have fun.”
Player and Team Statistics & Insights
Shedeur Sanders
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Odds to be first QB taken: 20 to one
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Odds for pick #2: 13 to one
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Not seen as elite-tier but projected solidly within top 10.
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Essler does not believe Sanders is a surefire long-term franchise solution.
Team Draft Logic
Saints (#9 pick):
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Need a QB, despite having Derek Carr.
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Most realistic team to take Sanders due to positional need and draft slot.
Cleveland, Giants, Patriots, Raiders, Jets, Panthers:
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Either locked into QBs or focused elsewhere.
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Not competing for Sanders, thus clearing his pathway to Saints.
Bears (#10):
Washington, Chargers, Steelers:
Betting Insights Recap
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Shedeur Sanders Top 10 Pick: -220
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Pick Under 8.5: +240
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Over 2.5 QBs in First Round: -475
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Sanders to Pick 9 (Saints): Strongest implied outcome
Essler embraces these as “chalky” plays—safe bets with low odds—but he underscores their value through strategic consistency and low risk.
Final Thoughts
Dave Essler presents a crystal-clear case for Shedeur Sanders landing with the Saints at pick 9. Through logic, positional needs, and betting markets, he strips down all uncertainty and frames Sanders' draft path as one of inevitability—not potential. While Essler remains skeptical about Sanders as a future star, he argues the value lies not in hype, but in reading the board correctly and executing smart bets.
For analysts, bettors, and draft fans, this transcript offers a masterclass in forecasting using a hybrid of team strategy, player odds, and market patterns.