Super Bowl LIX Best Bets – Expanded Summary
This extended breakdown of RJ Bell’s Dream Preview for Super Bowl LIX covers key betting insights, player performance analysis, and strategic observations made by RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik, and Mackenzie Rivers.
Best Bet: Will Both Teams Score in the First Quarter?
Steve Fezzik (0:02 - 0:11)
- Fezzik’s top betting pick is “No” on whether both teams will score in the first quarter.
- Odds for this bet are set at -140, indicating the bookmakers lean towards this outcome.
- He mentions they discussed this in a prior segment and believes it remains a strong value play.
RJ Bell (0:11 - 0:16)
- RJ Bell asks Fezzik to compare this bet with another option: under 3.5 scores in the first half.
- This question prompts Fezzik to weigh the relative strength of the two bets.
Steve Fezzik (0:17 - 0:20)
- Fezzik sticks with his original choice but acknowledges that the under 3.5 first-half scores bet is also solid.
- He prefers the “No” on first-quarter scoring but sees value in both bets.
Analysis:
- A bet against first-quarter scoring suggests expectations of slow offensive starts, possibly due to conservative play-calling, strong defensive game plans, or nerves affecting early-game execution.
- Historically, Super Bowl games often begin cautiously, with teams focusing on avoiding mistakes.
Player Prop: DeAndre Hopkins Under 12.5 Receiving Yards
Mackenzie Rivers (0:23 - 0:55)
- Mackenzie Rivers presents a strong case for betting the under on Hopkins' receiving yards (12.5 yards).
- He argues that Hopkins is not an active part of the offensive game plan, making it unlikely he will exceed the yardage total.
- Key Statistics & Observations:
- Hopkins is averaging just 1.5 targets per game in the playoffs.
- He has only been seeing around five yards per target, making it difficult for him to surpass 12.5 yards.
- Hollywood Brown replaced Hopkins as a starter in Week 14 and has taken on a greater role in the offense.
- Other key receivers like Juju Smith-Schuster and Travis Kelce have maintained stable target shares, limiting opportunities for Hopkins.
Steve Fezzik (0:55 - 1:15)
- Fezzik supports Rivers’ analysis and confirms that he has personally bet on this prop.
- He highlights that Juju Smith-Schuster was not playing five weeks ago, yet has already eclipsed Hopkins' role in the offense.
- Fezzik provides additional insight, noting that Hopkins only played 15 total snaps in a recent game.
Mackenzie Rivers (1:15 - 1:26)
- Rivers reinforces that Hopkins’ lack of playing time is a bigger issue than his lack of targets.
- Unless Andy Reid has an unexpected shift in strategy, Hopkins will likely remain a non-factor in this game.
- The possibility of a surprise game plan exists, but the strong trend of Hopkins' reduced role makes this under bet appealing.
Analysis:
- Hopkins is likely being phased out of the offense in favor of Hollywood Brown and Juju Smith-Schuster.
- 15 total snaps in a previous game is a major red flag, suggesting Hopkins is not expected to play a significant role.
- A bet on the under 12.5 receiving yards is supported by data on snaps, target share, and overall game plan.
Key Takeaways & Betting Insights
Best Bet: No first-quarter scoring for both teams (-140) – Fezzik’s top pick.
Under 3.5 first-half scores is a solid alternative.
DeAndre Hopkins under 12.5 receiving yards is a high-value prop bet.
Hopkins’ target volume has declined significantly since Hollywood Brown took over as a starter in Week 14.
Juju Smith-Schuster’s return has further diminished Hopkins’ role.
Hopkins played just 15 snaps in a previous game, making it unlikely he’ll be heavily involved.
? The only risk to the under bet is an unexpected game plan adjustment by Andy Reid.
Final Thoughts
This Super Bowl LIX preview from RJ Bell’s Dream Preview podcast provides insightful betting recommendations. The key bets focus on predictable trends, including low early scoring and declining player involvement.
Best Bets Summary:
- No first-quarter scoring for both teams (-140)
- Under 3.5 first-half scores
- DeAndre Hopkins under 12.5 receiving yards
The analysis highlights historical trends, current roster dynamics, and statistical backing, making these bets strategically sound choices for Super Bowl LIX.