Dallas Goedert Super Bowl LIX Player Prop Free Pick – Scott Seidenberg Analysis

Overview

In a discussion on Super Bowl LIX player props, Scott Seidenberg analyzes Philadelphia Eagles' tight end Dallas Goedert and his projected receptions. He argues that Goedert is positioned well to exceed 4.5 receptions, given the Chiefs’ struggles against tight ends and Goedert’s strong playoff performances.

Detailed Analysis with Quotes & Timestamps

Scott Seidenberg (0:00 - 1:21)

Seidenberg introduces his prop bet pick, aligning with Fez’s idea that Philadelphia has limited pass-catching options. His core argument is:

"I'm going Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert over four and a half receptions."

He predicts line movement, expecting the number to increase to 5.5 by kickoff:

"I firmly believe that by the time we get to kick off of the Super Bowl, this line will be at five and a half."

Chiefs’ Struggles Against Tight Ends

Seidenberg highlights that Kansas City’s defense has struggled against tight ends this season. However, he acknowledges a mixed performance in recent games.

• Dalton Kincaid (Buffalo Bills):
  • Had four targets but finished 2 receptions for 13 yards.
• Dawson Knox (Buffalo Bills):
  • Managed only 1 reception for 7 yards.
• Dalton Schultz (Houston Texans):
  • Had 4 catches for 63 yards.
• Irv Smith:
  • Contributed just one catch.

Despite the limited production from Buffalo's tight ends, Texans’ tight ends were more effective, showing potential for Goedert.

Dallas Goedert’s Playoff Performance

Seidenberg builds his case by analyzing Goedert’s consistent postseason success:

"He has gone over his receptions prop in nine straight Eagles playoff games."

He provides a historical breakdown of Goedert’s playoff reception totals:

• Last 9 Playoff Games: 7-6-5-5-6-4-4-4-7 receptions.
• This year’s playoffs: 15 catches on 18 targets in 3 games.
• Last game: 7 receptions.

Current Betting Line

Goedert’s reception prop has historically been set at 3.5 or 4. The current line of 4.5 still presents value, considering his recent form and matchup against Kansas City.

Seidenberg reiterates his confidence:

"I like Dallas Goedert to go over four and a half receptions."

Key Takeaways

 Dallas Goedert’s prop line is set at 4.5 receptions, but Seidenberg anticipates it rising to 5.5 before the Super Bowl.

 The Chiefs have struggled against tight ends, although some recent matchups have shown mixed results.

 Goedert has exceeded his receptions prop in 9 consecutive playoff games, demonstrating postseason consistency.

 This postseason, he has 15 catches on 18 targets over three games, including 7 catches in his last game.

 Historical performance suggests Goedert should surpass 4.5 receptions, making the over a strong play.

Conclusion

Scott Seidenberg’s analysis supports betting on Dallas Goedert over 4.5 receptions in Super Bowl LIX. Given the Chiefs' defensive struggles, Goedert’s playoff reliability, and his recent volume (7 catches last game, 15 in 3 playoff games this year), the bet appears to hold value.