Summary of Cooper Dejean Super Bowl LIX Player Prop Free Pick from Dave Essler at pregame.com

Full Analysis of Cooper Dejean Super Bowl LIX Player Prop Bet

Speaker: Dave Essler (0:00 - 0:51)

Dave Essler presents a Super Bowl LIX player prop bet, specifically focusing on Cooper Dejean’s total tackles and assists. He recommends betting on Dejean to record over 4.5 tackles and assists combined.

Detailed Breakdown of Key Quotes and Analysis

1. "The short story here is that the Chiefs will have a hard time running the ball. They're going to, I mean, they have against marginal teams."

• Context: Essler argues that Kansas City has struggled to run the football, even against weaker defenses.
• Analysis: If the Chiefs’ run game is ineffective, they will likely pass the ball more. This means that Philadelphia’s defensive backs, including Dejean, will have more tackling opportunities when covering receivers and tight ends.

2. "What that means is the Eagles defensive backs are going to get plenty of opportunities and it's probable that he's going to likely be matched up and or helping on Kelsey quite a bit."

• Context: Dejean is expected to have an active role in pass coverage, especially in defending Travis Kelce, Kansas City’s star tight end.
• Analysis:
  • Kelce is a high-volume target in Kansas City’s offense, which means Dejean will frequently be in one-on-one or support coverage against him.
  • If Kelce is targeted often, Dejean will have multiple chances to register tackles after receptions.
  • Since tight ends are physical, safeties and corners tend to accumulate both solo and assisted tackles when covering them.

3. "Look at his stats, you know, he had six in the game against Washington, and he had five against the Reds. No, he only had four in their first win against Green Bay."

• Context: Essler provides past game statistics to justify the bet.

• Player Performance:

  • 6 tackles vs. Washington
  • 5 tackles vs. (unclear reference, possibly "Reds")
  • 4 tackles vs. Green Bay

• Analysis:

  • The Washington game (6 tackles) shows Dejean’s ability to exceed 4.5 tackles when facing a pass-heavy offense.
  • Against Green Bay, he only had 4 tackles, which was slightly below the threshold.
  • However, Essler explains that Green Bay ran the ball frequently, limiting Dejean’s tackling chances.

4. "Green Bay kept trying to pound the rock, pound the rock, pound the rock, and it didn't work."

• Context: Green Bay’s offensive strategy focused on running the ball, which limited tackle opportunities for defensive backs.
• Analysis:
  • If an opponent runs the ball consistently, linebackers and defensive linemen make most of the tackles.
  • Since the Chiefs will likely pass more, Dejean will be more involved in making stops.

5. "You'd have to go back to, you know, the middle of November to find one game aside from their game against the Steelers where he didn't have this many."

• Context: Dejean’s consistency in exceeding 4.5 tackles per game.
• Analysis:
  • Since mid-November, Dejean has consistently surpassed 4.5 tackles, except for one game against Pittsburgh.
  • This suggests that the probability of him hitting 5+ tackles is very high.

6. "So it's a little juicy. I believe it's minus 150, but it's a winner."

• Context: Essler acknowledges the betting odds and provides his confidence level.
• Analysis:
  • The odds of -150 mean that a $150 bet would return $100 in profit.
  • The phrase "it's a winner" indicates that Essler is confident in the bet despite the cost.
  • The term "juicy" means that the bet has a high probability of winning, but at a lower payout due to the odds.

Player Statistics and Betting Analysis

Cooper Dejean’s Recent Tackling Performances:

• Key Takeaways:
  • In two of the last three games, Dejean surpassed 4.5 tackles.
  • The only exception (Green Bay) was due to their run-heavy strategy.
  • Against a pass-heavy team like Kansas City, his tackle numbers should be higher.

Team Statistics and Insights

Kansas City Chiefs - Offensive Tendencies

• Chiefs' rushing struggles:

  • Essler suggests that Kansas City’s running game is weak, which forces them to pass more often.
  • This benefits Philadelphia’s defensive backs, including Dejean, by giving them more opportunities to make tackles.

• Travis Kelce Factor:

  • Kansas City’s tight end-heavy offense means that Dejean will be involved in tackling Kelce frequently.
  • Kelce’s playing style often requires multiple defenders to bring him down, leading to assisted tackles.

Philadelphia Eagles - Defensive Matchup

• Philadelphia’s defensive scheme:
  • The Eagles’ defensive backs will have an increased workload due to Kansas City’s passing focus.
  • Dejean, being one of their more active defenders, is likely to exceed 4.5 tackles.

Final Betting Recommendation

Bet: Cooper Dejean Over 4.5 Tackles & Assists (-150)

Confidence Level: ? (4.5/5)

Why This Bet Makes Sense:

1. Statistical consistency – Dejean has exceeded 4.5 tackles in most games since November.
2. Kansas City’s offensive strategy – More passing plays mean more chances for defensive backs to make tackles.
3. Matchup against Travis Kelce – Dejean will be heavily involved in covering and tackling one of Kansas City’s top targets.
4. Betting odds (-150) – While the odds indicate some risk, Essler strongly believes this is a winning bet.

Conclusion

Dave Essler presents a well-supported case for betting on Cooper Dejean’s total tackles & assists. His analysis is based on historical performance, opponent tendencies, and expected game flow. The Chiefs' passing-heavy attack and Dejean’s defensive role both point toward a high probability of him exceeding 4.5 tackles. Despite the slightly unfavorable odds (-150), Essler remains confident in this pick as a strong wager for Super Bowl LIX.