?‍?? Expanded Summary: WM Phoenix Open Predictions 

This detailed breakdown follows the transcript exclusively, providing in-depth quote analysis, player and team statistics, and strategic insights.

 First Round Leader Predictions

 [0:00 - 0:10] SleepyJ Kicks Off Discussion

• Speaker: SleepyJ
• Summary: Opens the discussion with Uncle Dave (Dave Essler), inviting him to share his picks for first-round leaders at the WM Phoenix Open.

 Dave Essler’s First-Round Leader Picks

 [0:10 - 2:30] Dave Essler’s Analysis

• Speaker: Dave Essler
• Summary: Focuses on "bombers" (long hitters) and values both elite players and high-odds longshots.

 Pick #1: Scottie Scheffler (12 to 1)

 Analysis:

• Reasoning for the bet:
  • Although Scheffler had what some called an "off week", he still finished T9 and did not record a single round over 70.
  • Historical perspective: If Scheffler is priced at 12 to 1 each week, and he leads after Round 1 at least once in 12 events, the bet breaks even.
  • Confidence level: Essler says if this price is offered every week, he would bet it every time.

 Statistical Insights:

• Last week’s performance: Finished T9, no rounds over 70.
• Course compatibility: Strong player for a one-round wager.

 Pick #2: Patrick Rodgers (80 to 1) - A High-Risk Flyer

 Analysis:

• Last week’s form:
  • Finished Sunday’s round with a 67.
  • Shot 66 on Saturday (but had a 75 mixed in).
• Why this course suits him:
  • Phoenix Open’s greens are flat and true-rolling, which reduces putting struggles—an area where Rodgers sometimes struggles.
  • Past success: Shot 65 in the final round last year at Phoenix, proving he has course confidence.

 Statistical Insights:

• Potential concerns: Streaky play (great rounds mixed with poor ones).
• Why he’s worth a bet: If he putts well, he’s a strong sleeper pick.

 Pick #3: Tom Hoagie (70 to 1) - Best Value Pick

 Analysis:

• Elite in “shots gained on approach”, which is one of the most crucial stats for Phoenix.
• Opening round performance this season:
  • Started both Hawaiian events with a 64.
  • Worst opening round in 2024: 69.
• Oddsmaker discrepancy:
  • Rodgers is 80 to 1, while Hoagie is 70 to 1—Essler argues that based on form and stats, Hoagie should be closer to 40 to 1.

 Statistical Insights:

• Best skill for this course: Iron play (shots gained on approach).
• Previous Phoenix Open performances: Consistent and reliable history in desert events.

 SleepyJ’s First-Round Leader Picks

 [2:31 - 4:31] SleepyJ’s Analysis

• Speaker: SleepyJ
• Summary: Shares two first-round leader picks, focusing on a mix of elite talent and a high-value sleeper.

 Pick #1: Justin Thomas (28 to 1) - The Safe Bet

 Analysis:

• Why JT is a strong pick:
  • Three top-3 finishes since the Tour Championship.
  • Hasn’t placed worse than 13th in his last six events.
  • Proven track record at Phoenix Open ("a threat every year for six years").
• Odds & Expectations:
  • He is currently the second favorite to win.
  • SleepyJ believes these odds are justified, given his form.
• Additional Advantage:
  • JT tees off early alongside Dunlap and Clanton—two younger players looking to make a name for themselves.
  • SleepyJ believes JT will assert dominance in this pairing.

 Statistical Insights:

• Current form:  Elite consistency over the last six months.
• Tournament history: Always a factor at Phoenix Open.
• Psychological advantage: More experienced than his playing partners.

 Pick #2: JJ Spaun (60 to 1) - High-Value Sleeper

 Analysis:

• Why Spaun is worth a flyer:
  • One of the first groups to tee off, which could be an advantage.
  • Inconsistent history at Phoenix, but plays well when in form.
• Current performance trends:
  • Top 35 in 8 of his last 9 events.
  • Two strong finishes in recent months (3rd & 6th place finishes).
• Phoenix Open Performance:
  • Best finish: 4th place.
  • SleepyJ believes his current game mirrors the form he had when he placed 4th.

 Statistical Insights:

• Past performance: Best finish at Phoenix: 4th place.
• Consistency: 8 top-35 finishes in last 9 events.
• Momentum: Game currently in great shape.

 Final Betting Recommendations

? Key Takeaways

 Best Elite Player Bet: Scottie Scheffler (12 to 1) – A consistent force in opening rounds.

 Best Safe Bet: Justin Thomas (28 to 1) – Unmatched Phoenix consistency and top form.

 Best Value Pick: Tom Hoagie (70 to 1) – Top-5 iron play, underrated by oddsmakers.

 Best Sleeper: JJ Spaun (60 to 1) – Strong form, high odds, early tee time advantage.

 Ultimate Longshot: Patrick Rodgers (80 to 1) – Capable of surprising if his putter gets hot.

 Hashtags for Discussion

#WMPhoenixOpen ?
#GolfBetting 
#FirstRoundLeader 
#PGAOdds 
#ScottieScheffler 
#JustinThomas 
#TomHoagie 
#JJSpaun 
#PatrickRodgers 

 Quotes from the WM Phoenix Open Predictions

Here are the most insightful and strategic quotes from the discussion, along with timestamps and analysis.

? Dave Essler’s Key Quotes

1?? On Betting Scottie Scheffler (12 to 1)

 [0:10 - 2:30]
 Quote: "If he's priced 12 to 1 as a first-round leader every week, I'll bet on him every week. I'm being serious about that."
 Analysis:

• Essler strongly believes Scheffler is underpriced and would bet him every time at this number.
• The logic: If he leads just once in 12 events, the bet breaks even.
• Confidence in Scheffler’s consistency despite an "off week" where he still finished T9.

2?? On Patrick Rodgers (80 to 1)

 [0:10 - 2:30]
 Quote: "If he can putt at this price, this is a course with fairly flat greens that roll pretty true, which makes me even consider this bet for anybody else that might struggle to putt."
 Analysis:

• Course conditions matter—Rodgers benefits from Phoenix’s "flat, true-rolling greens", which minimize putting struggles.
• High-risk, high-reward play—needs to putt well to capitalize.
• Rodgers shot 65 in the final round last year, proving he can score here.

3?? On Tom Hoagie (70 to 1)

 [0:10 - 2:30]
 Quote: "His worst opening round this year is 69. And when you consider that Rodgers is 80 to 1, if that were a true number, Hoagie ought to be like 40 to 1, I think."
 Analysis:

• Oddsmaker mistake? Essler argues Hoagie’s odds are too high given his consistency.
• Iron play matters—Hoagie excels in "shots gained on approach," a critical stat at Phoenix.
• Low round consistency—Worst start this season is 69, meaning he’s consistently strong early.

? SleepyJ’s Key Quotes

4?? On Justin Thomas (28 to 1)

 [2:31 - 4:31]
 Quote: "He’s been a threat pretty much every year that he’s been here at this course, at least over the last six years."
 Analysis:

• Historical dominance—JT consistently performs well at Phoenix.
• Odds justify confidence—His top-3 finishes in three recent events back up the pick.
• Strong field competition—He’s paired with young talents Dunlap and Clanton, but SleepyJ believes JT will hold his ground.

5?? On JJ Spaun (60 to 1)

 [2:31 - 4:31]
 Quote: "His best finish here at Phoenix was fourth. And again, that was when his game was going well. I think this is kind of a carbon copy right now for him."
 Analysis:

• Historical reference matters—Spaun’s best finish at Phoenix (4th) came when he was in top form.
• Current trajectory is similar—Top 35 in 8 of his last 9 events, third- and sixth-place finishes recently.
• Early tee-off advantage—He’s one of the first players out, potentially avoiding tougher afternoon conditions.

 Key Takeaways from the Quotes

 Essler prioritizes undervalued players, highlighting Scheffler’s consistency, Rodgers’ putting advantage, and Hoagie’s elite iron play.

 SleepyJ trusts form-based picks, backing JT’s Phoenix history and Spaun’s recent momentum.

 Course knowledge is crucial—Both speakers emphasize how past results at Phoenix influence betting decisions.