WM Phoenix Open Preview – In-Depth Analysis & Betting Guide

Introduction

In this episode of the Golf Preview Podcast on Pregame's Network, Will Doctor provides a comprehensive breakdown of the WM Phoenix Open. He reviews Rory McIlroy's dominant victory at Pebble Beach, highlights key player performances, and shares betting insights and fantasy picks for TPC Scottsdale.

The episode includes:

• Pebble Beach Pro-Am Recap – Rory’s win, top contenders, and betting results.
• WM Phoenix Open Analysis – Player performance reviews, betting picks, and predictions.
• Best Bets & Fantasy Picks – Matchups, sleepers, and first-round leader predictions.

Pebble Beach Pro-Am Recap (0:39 - 32:26)

 Rory McIlroy’s Masterclass

Rory McIlroy claimed his 27th PGA Tour win with an outstanding final round at Pebble Beach. His strategic play and near-flawless ball striking were on full display:

Key Stats:

• Final nine holes: 5-under.
• Birdies: Holes 10, 12, and 15.
• Eagle: Hole 14 (Par 5).
• Driving distance leader: 336 yards per drive.
• Top-10 in putting.

Strategic Shift

• Played conservatively in the final round, using irons instead of the driver on key holes.
• Adjusted to shorter drives (286 yards) on Sunday for better accuracy.
• Quote from Rory’s press conference: He admitted that a younger version of himself would have pulled driver on key holes.

 Analysis: Rory’s decision-making and course management were elite, showing why he is one of the best in the game. Jamie Kennedy (Golf Digest) highlighted how Rory adapted his strategy under pressure.

 Other Notable Performances

Scottie Scheffler (T-9)

• Above average in all key metrics.
• Final-round 67.
• Second-round 70 in tough conditions hurt his chances.

Tom Kim (T-7)

• Cashed a top-10 ticket but struggled on par-5s:
  • Thursday: -1
  • Friday: -2
  • Saturday: -2
  • Sunday: +1
• Big mistake: Hit his second shot into the Pacific Ocean on Hole 6.
• Slow Play Concern: Stood over shots for an extended time, which could be a problem at TPC Scottsdale.

Gary Woodland (T-22)

• Second top-25 finish in a row.
• Weather impacted his second and third rounds.

Justin Thomas (T-48)

• Struggled with driving accuracy (ranked 70th in the field).
• Poor putting performance.
• Driving issues continue, making him a risky bet.

Shane Lowry (2nd)

• Beat Tony Finau in a head-to-head matchup.
• Five birdies in his last eight holes secured his runner-up finish.

Rasmus Højgaard

• Bogey on the 72nd hole cost him a matchup win against Finau.
• Final drive landed in the Pacific Ocean, losing by one stroke.

WM Phoenix Open – Picks & Betting Strategy

 Top Contenders & Betting Analysis

 Scottie Scheffler (+305)

• Won WM Phoenix Open twice (2022, 2023).
• T-3 last year.
• Recent putting improvement is a good sign.
•  Passing on outright bet due to low odds but looking for a live number.

 Justin Thomas (15:1)

• Driving accuracy remains an issue.
• Has never won at TPC Scottsdale.
• Poor putting last week at Pebble Beach.
•  Passing on JT outright.

 Hideki Matsuyama (17:1)

• Back-to-back winner in 2016 & 2017.
• Struggling with driving accuracy.
• Playing third consecutive tournament (fatigue concern).
•  Passing on Hideki this week.

 Sungjae Im (22:1)

• Two top-10 finishes at Phoenix Open.
• Iron play has been below average in 2 of last 3 starts.
• Has not truly contended in this event.
•  Passing on Sungjae this week.

 Sam Burns (25:1)

• T-6 finish last year.
• Lost strokes in approach play in last four starts.
•  Passing on Burns due to poor iron play.

 Tom Kim (33:1)

• T-17 last year.
• Played well after a slow start.
• Slow play could be a major issue in a loud atmosphere.
•  Skipping outright bet.

 Best Bets & Sleeper Picks

 Matchup Bets

 Rico Hoey over Thriston Lawrence (-106)

• Hoey: Strong total driver and putter on fast greens.
• Lawrence: Weak in driving accuracy and distance.

 Top Picks

 Kurt Kitayama

• Win: 66:1
• Top-20: +240
• T-8 last year at WM Phoenix Open.
• Driving accuracy has improved.

 Sleeper Pick – Gary Woodland

• Win: 115:1
• Top-20: +350
• Won WM Phoenix Open in 2018.
• Improved putting & driving accuracy.

 Fantasy Picks (DraftKings & PGA Tour Lineup)

 DraftKings Lineup ($50K Budget)

1?? Kurt Kitayama ($8.9K) 2?? Luke Clanton ($8.3K) 3?? Si Woo Kim ($8K) 4?? Matt Fitzpatrick ($7.7K) 5?? Charlie Hoffman ($7.2K) 6?? Gary Woodland ($7.1K)

?‍?? PGA Tour Fantasy Lineup

 Starters: Kitayama (Captain), Woodland, Clanton, Si Woo Kim.
 Bench: Hoffman, Fitzpatrick.

 Final Predictions

 Winning Score: -18
 Best Bet: Kurt Kitayama Top-20 (+240)
 First-Round Leader Bet: Scottie Scheffler (Top-5 after Round 1) at +320

 Conclusion

Will Doctor provides a highly detailed analysis of the WM Phoenix Open, focusing on ball strikers and putters who can handle TPC Scottsdale.

• Top picks: Kitayama & Woodland offer great value.
• Key fades: Justin Thomas and Tom Kim (driving accuracy & slow play concerns).
• Scottie Scheffler remains the favorite but offers little betting value.

Next week: Genesis Invitational Preview.