Thanks DM for all your contributions in Football and NBA
I did some research on your question. My answer is Don't Go for it
- Assuming a Push will not cost you anything
- A $90 bet (no juice) with a $200 potential winning has a 31% probability
- All NFL games going back 6 decades had roughly combined 8% Margin of Victory (MOV) of 1 or 2 points
- Since 2015, when PAT was moved back, the probability (1 or 2 points MOV) improved slightly by less than 1%
- In Super Bowls it's even worse. Only 1 Super Bowl (1991 Giants vs Buffalo) had 1 point MOV
- You would have less than 10% probability to hit 1 or 2 MOV vs 31%
Good luck this Super Bowl LIX