BILLS at CHIEFS OVER 48
“Long Live the King?”
Intro
During President Donald Trump's inauguration speech this week we got to see first-hand a king (Joe Biden) looking defeated as his main rival had just conquered everything his political party could do to keep him from relinquishing his lofty perch only to come up painfully short at the end. Not only did he look he part as the defeated king but when he entered the Capitol Rotunda when he was use to cheers and mass adulation by his loyal followers instead on this occasion he was met with audible boos from the audience, contrasting sharply with the enthusiastic cheers that was usually meant for him but now was for his hated rival. Despite maintaining a composed exterior, the negative reception underscored the political shift, and the challenges Biden faced during his failed presidency. This got me thinking ("oh no") about the inevitable transfer of power in all aspects of life and the mental makeup of both the defeated king and the gallant challenger that has now taken the throne. Additionally, the struggle for the challenger in climbing to the top and the equally if not greater struggle for the king to lay down his sword and relinquish the power that he has grown to love.
The psyche of a defeated king is a fascinating psychological and philosophical exploration of power, loss, and identity. Throughout history, rulers who have faced defeat—whether through political downfall, military loss, or abdication—often exhibit a mixture of emotions, ranging from denial and despair to acceptance and reinvention. Do we see a king fall on his sword today as we witnessed this week in the Capitol Rotunda? If so Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes will have to face a choice on how he will handle it. His choices below will be the same ones confronting our now Ex “King” Joe Biden:
- The Initial Shock: Disbelief and Denial
For a ruler, power is identity and losing it can create cognitive dissonance—a psychological conflict between self-perception and reality. Many fallen leaders initially struggle to accept their downfall, clinging to remnants of authority or seeking external validation.
In modern cases, defeated political leaders often blame external forces—the media, opposition, betrayal, or even the public—for their downfall. This helps them maintain an internal sense of control, even when external control is lost.
- Humiliation and Isolation: The Abyss of Defeat
Once the reality of defeat settles, feelings of shame, resentment, and isolation take hold. A ruler who once commanded absolute power is suddenly irrelevant, often abandoned by allies who benefited from their rule. This phase can be particularly painful if the leader was once adored but is now ridiculed.
- Rationalization and Nostalgia
Some defeated rulers retreat into nostalgia, seeing themselves as tragic heroes rather than failed leaders. This helps them cope by shifting responsibility and reframing their downfall as unjust.
- Reinvention or Oblivion: The Path Forward
Not all defeated rulers remain broken. Some reinvent themselves, finding a new purpose outside of power. On the other hand, some leaders fade into obscurity, unable to reconcile their lost power with their remaining life.
The Weight of a Fallen Crown
A defeated king (or leader) must navigate the collapse of their ego, identity, and purpose. Some find peace in new roles, others become bitter shadows of their former selves, and a few descend into delusion or self-destruction. The question remains: Is there life after the throne?
Black Hole
In our society, masculinity traditionally connotes power, control, competitiveness, independence, and aggression. As men, we want to experience those things. Take them away from us and we spiral down fast.
There is a stigma surrounding mental health, but I believe that there is an even bigger stigma surrounding depression and masculinity. One of the reasons for this is that we see them as opposites (depression = weakness while masculinity = strength).
Emotionally emasculated men are afraid of making hard decisions because they don’t have the courage to take risks or to suffer the consequences of their decisions. Thus, they are always paralyzed by excessive analysis and second-guessing themselves. This takes away from their call to lead as a man.
Round The Globe
This “mental defect” is simply called self-doubt. In the scope of sports (persona and/or team) the term has been defined as uncertainty about one’s abilities, potential for success, or competence in performance situations. As self-doubt concerning personal abilities increases, global self-esteem tends to decrease because self-doubt presents the threat to global evaluations of oneself. Hence, self-doubt can lead to both self-handicapping (i.e., creating or claiming obstacles that reduce the probability of success while at the same time providing an excuse for failure) and overachievement (i.e., striving to perform beyond one’s capabilities) in order to protect the self from the implications of failure. As such, self-doubt is often studied in the context of performance.
College Age
Self-doubt includes thoughts and feelings such as wondering whether or not one has the ability to succeed at important activities, having thoughts that focus on the bad things that might occur, feeling unsure of one’s abilities more often than not, and experiencing greater emotional impact as a result of avoiding failure than achieving success. Among university students, self-doubt is negatively related to variables such as achievement motivation, self-esteem, and narcissism while being positively related to variables such as self-handicapping, social anxiety, and “impostor” feelings in which success is perceived as undeserved.
It has been proposed that people who experience high levels of self-doubt tend to reduce their level of effort or quickly settle for mediocre solutions when faced with difficulties, challenges, or setbacks in performance situations. Thus, while self-doubt might be a more or less natural reaction to failure, it might be the resilience and ability to regain confidence that is critically important to successful performance when self-doubt occurs. However, subjective overachievement (i.e., the psychological approach to and process of a performance) can occur when self-doubt is combined with a concern over performance. While overachievers tend to perform well on tasks, the challenge to be an overachiever is that the motive to perform well might be driven more by a desire to gain social approval than by intrinsic motives such as the inherent satisfaction in being able to perform a task.
Choo-Choo
For the Bills it appears than when they were “the little engine that could” they embraced this mantra. Now in the role of the new “Goliath” the pressure to perform is to the point that it is paralyzing their play and overall enjoyment of the game itself and the tasks needed to overcome during a long regular season to be truly called a champion.
Midway
You know that moment when you casually find yourself questioning the things you’ve believed since you were a child? Mid-conversation or mid-performance of a “mastered task” you feel a twinge of discomfort in your brain. The discomfort comes because there’s a gap between the things that you’ve been believing (Bills are SB contenders)— and the reality that you are living and seeing. That gap presents your brain with a stressful situation: this is called cognitive dissonance.
Cognitive dissonance is what happens when our brain is at war with itself. A more proper definition: The feeling of psychological discomfort produced by the combined presence of two thoughts that do not follow from one another.
Bone Chilling
I believe that different people have varying degrees of tolerance for this, but for the most part, our brains prefer binary beliefs. We’re either republican or democrat, religious or secular, hero or villain.
These entrenched thoughts are scary places in people's minds that are begging for deconstruction. Deconstruction happens when you interrogate your beliefs. You deconstruct and tease apart the things you’re believing. This allows doubt to sneak its way into your every thought. So, what should we do when doubt enters our minds? Most people instinctively fight, flight or freeze.
- Fight: By fighting for my beliefs, I reinforce my beliefs.
- Flight: I could run away by burying myself in other distractions. (i.e.: business, religion, alcohol, etc.)
- Freeze: I could surround myself with an echo chamber of people that believe the same things as me and engage in feedback loops that don’t change or challenge my beliefs.
Upset Stomach
Emotional security is the measure of the stability of an individual's emotional state. Emotional insecurity or simply insecurity is a feeling of general unease or nervousness that may be triggered by perceiving of oneself to be vulnerable or inferior in some way, or a sense of vulnerability or instability which threatens one's self-image or ego.
The concept is related to that of psychological resilience in as far as both concern the effects which setbacks or difficult situations have on an individual. However, resilience concerns over-all coping, also with reference to the individual's socioeconomic situation, whereas emotional security specifically characterizes the emotional impact. In this sense, emotional security can be understood as part of resilience.
Safety Zone
The notion of emotional security of an individual is to be distinguished from that of emotional safety or security provided by a non-threatening, supportive environment. A person who is susceptible to bouts of depression being triggered by minor setbacks is said to be less "emotionally secure". A person whose general happiness is not very shaken even by major disturbances in the pattern or fabric of their life might be said to be extremely emotionally secure. These characteristics can be seen in the collective behavior of a team. It is obvious to me that both the Bills and Chiefs are very secure in their own skin.
Welcome to the Jungle
Insecure people "perceive the world as a threatening jungle and most human beings as dangerous and selfish; feels a rejected and isolated person, anxious and hostile; is generally pessimistic and unhappy; shows signs of tension and conflict, tends to turn inward; is troubled by guilt-feelings, has one or another disturbance of self-esteem; tends to be neurotic; and is generally selfish and egocentric."
Wrong Way Street
A person who is insecure lacks confidence in his or her own value, and one or more of his or her capabilities, lacks trust in himself or herself or others, or has fears that a present positive state is temporary, and will let him or her down and cause him or her loss or distress by "going wrong" in the future. This is a common trait, which only differs in degree between people.
This is not to be confused with humility, which involves recognizing one's shortcomings but still maintaining a healthy dose of self-confidence. Insecurity is not an objective evaluation of one's ability but an emotional interpretation. Two people with the same capabilities may have entirely different levels of insecurity.
Stopwatch
Insecurity may contribute to the development of shyness, paranoia and social withdrawal, or alternatively it may encourage compensatory behaviors such as arrogance, aggression, or bullying, in some cases.
The fact that the majority of human beings are emotionally vulnerable, and have the capacity to be hurt, implies that emotional insecurity could merely be a difference in awareness.
But for Buffalo today in the “belly of the beast” they have a rare opportunity to show the resilience to get to a place they desire the most (Super Bowl) and also gain redemption for a time and placed that they had this same dream “stolen” right out from under them in 13 simple seconds
Social Studies
Resilience is quite common among pro athletes. This assumes that most players who are marginalized find ways to cope with their team’s situation. Social relationships with others as an important protective factor and a part of individual resilience. Players who are more socially connected are more resilient and if you combine those players and place them on a team that are secure their inter-resilience grows a strong bond between members of the team fabric in the purpose of a common task (season).
Arts and Crafts
There are five communicative processes through which resilience is achieved: crafting normalcy, affirming identity anchors, utilizing communication networks, reframing, and downplaying negative feelings while focusing on positive emotions. These processes could be used by marginalized platers/team members in coming together to build a solid team unit. This means that team members can ‘‘talk normalcy into being.” For example, marginalized team members might express preference for celebrating holidays with team members instead of their family of origin. Affirming identity anchors (i.e., identity discourses people rely on to define who they are in relation to others) included significant identity work (e.g., maintaining face) on the part of the entire team. Marginalized team members might affirm existing valued identities such as ‘‘brother.” Maintaining and using communication networks focused on ‘‘building and utilizing social capital’’ and might include marginalized team members relying on network members of their team for roles family/friends usually fill. Reframing or creating alternative logics (e.g., organizing logics that may be contradictory or non-sensical) with others provides a different way of looking at and understanding the process of marginalization for those who are marginalized. The last process allows people facing difficulty in life to validate negative feelings while refocusing on the positive. Marginalized team members may recognize the hurt they have experienced so that they can focus on improving their team situation or surround themselves with members of the team who care about them.
Do Not Enter
The Buffalo roster is full of players who were cut, doubted, and marginalized throughout the league. The organizations recognized this type of player, brought them into their unique culture and at the same time developed a system which closed the door on doubters of their new team building and playing philosophies. Players created and negotiated boundaries with those outside their team unit as a protective strategy. Limited exposure protected marginalized players from future marginalizing experiences and allowed them space to start fresh.
Whether physically moving away or regulating access to information about their play, participants set boundaries to practice resilience. These barriers are:
Creating physical distance-Physically moving away from others outside the team unit to restrict access and provided a fresh start for several players.
Restricting access to information-A second way players created and negotiated boundaries was to restrict media members’ access to information. Privacy is essential for team functioning. Boundaries are drawn around information to protect those who own and share the information. Communication was restricted between media and team in their collective unwillingness to talk, avoidance of certain topics, or increased physical distance.
Recognizing negative experiences-Players spoke explicitly about reframing their situation by focusing on re-building their professional craft (e.g., seeking advanced training/refocusing), while acknowledging that being a marginalized as a player was a painful and undesirable experience.
Downplaying marginalization-Marginalized players downplayed the effects of marginalization on their lives while making sense of their marginalization. By downplaying the lived experience, players were working to change the meaning of marginalization through their new lease on their career.
Insisting the marginalization does not bother them. -When asked how being marginalized affected their everyday life, some players downplayed any effect. Players invoked getting older, understanding the business, and developed confidence as markers of maturity and a change in the way they felt about their marginalization as opposed to how they used to feel.
Reducing the influence of the past-Players unlike before now downplaying the influence of their past teams’ choice of releasing them and that it no longer impacting their everyday life.
Living authentically despite disapproval-Many participants spoke about living authentically (i.e., being true to themselves) despite the past teams’ disapproval. Players who engaged in this strategy seemed fueled by anger and frustration. They channeled their anger into what they considered productive action, fighting against their marginalization and to do anything/everything they can to help their new team succeed.
Abandon Ship?
Welcome to team building 101 in the modern NFL and to which Buffalo has gone “all in” with and a “hungry for a winner” city has bought into. It is the primary reason the Bills as an organization are on the cusp of long-term stability that will ensue sustainable success now and well into the future. They have a great opportunity today in “righting the ship” while leaving a tumultuous regular season behind by beating the Champs today in their own building.
Bad Intent
Redemption is the concept of reclaiming or restoring something lost, often involving a journey of personal growth or transformation. In sports, it frequently symbolizes athletes overcoming adversity or past failures, leading to a triumphant comeback that captivates audiences and highlights the human experience.
Our intent is the most critical component of our actions. Why did we do what we did? Was it for self-gain or because we were trying to do what we thought was right and either inadvertently or regretfully injured the person we were trying to help? If the latter, we must embrace the fact that our intentions were good and that sometimes the most compassionate action looks, and even is, injurious on the surface (think of painful but necessary medical procedures). We may find ourselves tripped up in our attempts to reach this perspective by the complexity of the context in which we acted, finding it sometimes hard to figure out how exactly how pure-hearted our intentions were. But if we can focus on those intentions rather than on their results (over which we rarely have complete control), we may learn we have nothing to regret at all.
Baby Steps
The path to redemption is difficult but not impossible to follow. We must fully recognize that we've done wrong; fully accept responsibility for having done it; determine never to do it again; apologize to those we've done it to (if appropriate); and resolve to aim at improving ourselves in the general direction of good. Interestingly, it was the last step, my conscious affirmation to become a person who would strive only to do good (even knowing I would at times fail), that enabled me to forgive myself and find redemption in my own eyes.
There exists an important principle known as "from today onward," which essentially says that to dwell unduly on the past negates the idea that we can change and improve ourselves in the future. We can't escape the effects of our past causes, of course, but we can aim to be transformed by them in a way that strengthens the good in us.
Blind Spot
When the King dies it's usually when they never see it coming. Although I feel the challenger Bills are the much better team and with the King “leaking oil” with his reign nearing its glorious end, this is not the time or place for the King to willfully ready to relinquish its crown without a fight. The Bills are weak themselves as they are coming off a highly draining home game v Baltimore, and the King will be ready from the jump and attack early and often looking to take the heart and will out of the respected and worthy challenger. We can expect a heavyweight championship title fight as these two titans feel that they are the rightful and worthy Kings of the AFC.
New Blood
There isn’t much new to say about this matchup. The context has changed from last year, when Buffalo was favored by three points at home, and the Chiefs appeared vulnerable in 2023. Now, with the Chiefs as two-time defending champions back at home, we tend to overlook any regular season struggles and trust that Mahomes, HC Andy Reid, TE Travis Kelce, and DC Steve Spagnuolo will bring their best in January and February.
Brady Bunch
Let’s analyze the basics of the matchup. Allen had the fewest turnovers of his career this season and avoided the high-profile errors that plagued him in the past. Kudos to both Allen and OC Joe Brady for reining in his aggression and sharpening his decision-making. We’re splitting hairs here in a matchup this close and of this magnitude, but these details matter.
3 times a Charm
Bills HC McDermott has struggled against Mahomes and the Chiefs when it has mattered most, like many others. You might succeed on first and second down, but Mahomes is the best quarterback on third-and-7 or more in the past seven years by and it isnt even close. Last year, despite Kansas City’s offensive struggles in December, the Chiefs managed to score 27 points and average 7.7 yards per play against Buffalo in January.
Straight Line
Buffalo’s defense heavily relies on forcing turnovers to succeed. This strategy may not be as effective against Mahomes and Reid as they have gone 7 straight games without a turnover and if you include all games played this season, the Bills defense ranks 11th in EPA per play allowed. However, if you remove turnovers from the sample, the defense drops to 27th. By drop back EPA allowed, Buffalo falls to 30th once turnovers are removed. It’s the weakest unit among the four primary ones remaining in the playoffs.
Dog Fight
I bet on Buffalo last week as a small underdog because Allen was the more reliable quarterback playing at home, and I thought Buffalo’s defense could hold up well enough in the run game and that playoff Jackson would show up and make the costly mistake However, other than those predictable errors from Jackson and Mark Andrews, Baltimore dominated the underlying box score. The Ravens had 7.3 (!) yards per play. Now, there are some injury concerns in Buffalo as Taylor Rapp, Matt Milano, and Christian Benford are questionable? These players are key defenders at multiple levels of a unit that has been inconsistent all season long but if they key contributors are out it will seriouly hinder the Bills attempt to derail the champs.
You're So Negative
The Kansas City defense is not above criticism either. C.J. Stroud took a number of sacks in the divisional round, as expected, but the Texans were absolutely able to move the ball on this secondary despite a mediocre group of receiving options. The Chiefs defense has Jaylen Watson and Trent McDuffie available as their top two corners, but the pass defense currently remains the biggest issue facing the team. Spagnuolo excels at bringing pressure and forcing mistakes, but Allen is the league’s best at avoiding sacks, and his scrambling ability can nullify some of this.
Low Ball
If both quarterbacks are playing at the peaks of their powers, the total in my opinion even at 48 is still too low. In the divisional round, the Chiefs struggled offensively, but it was more of a testament to the Texans’ elite defense. Houston finished the season first in success rate allowed. The Bills defense is vulnerable over the middle, while the Chiefs’ pass defense has regressed compared to last year. The previous three playoff meetings between these teams have all gone over the 48 total as both QB will tuck it and run when they need to keep the drive alive or more recently with the Bills, they will unleash Allen as a runner as down the stretch he scored almost every game. He scored against the Chiefs, 49ers (division clincher), Lions (twice), Rams (three times), and Ravens (twice).
Asylum
If I had to pick a side in this one, although I am begging for Allen and the Bills to dethrone the champs, I would be the fool once again if I bet against Mahomes in this spot. We have seen time after time that even in the direst of circumstances Sir Patrick will say the command of “hocus pocus” and pull another rabbit out of his hat as he proceeds to getting out of a strait jacket while in handcuffs just in time to save his Chiefs once again. The belief in Mahomes is so strong that the team isn't shocked when he pulls off yet another “miracle” as that all of Chiefs Nation expected he would as the rest of the world stands once again in shock and awe! The Bills have this same trust in Allen, but he will have to out magic the great Houdini if he wants to take the helm from one of the games greats. If he can do it, then he will take his rightful place on the throne and the invincible aura of the great Mahomes will have taken a blow that he and the Chiefs might never recover from.
Kill Shot?
The King has done a great job this year covering up his lack of overall team talent. They have had to rely on excellent coaching, mental preparation and game planning to score and build an early lead while holding on at the end. This early execution by KC leads young and insecure teams to panic, forgoing their game plan which leads to the enviable and numerous errors that the Chiefs take advantage of. We have seen week after week teams can put up massive yardage against this Chiefs team but in the end, all just couldn’t capitalize and close the deal. The Bills are too good to let the Chiefs slide and if Allen doesn’t turn the ball over Buffalo could and should “steal” this game late and if they get the chance to slay the now wounded king Allen can't give him an inch as Mahomes will once again make him and the Bills live to regret it!
Super Glue
Finally, I will state for the record that if the Bills can overcome all of the physical and psychological challenges to overtake the King today it will galvanize this team to such an extent that the rest of the league might as well just succumb to the fact that it is the Bills time to reign supreme and that challenging this notion would be not only futile but down right foolish.
Till Death Do Us Part
In the end, what we learned is that when a team openly challenges the King, the King will always be ready and fight to the death. It is when they and their devoted army don’t see it coming where their reign will come crashing down in flames and which will never be rebuilt. So, for today the King lives but Allen, HC Sean McDermott, and the entire Bills organization has the rare opportunity not only to beat their conference rival in the AFC Title game but to exorcise the demons from Arrowhead playoff games of the past and to get redemption for the 13 seconds that has lasted 3 long years. I personally feel that Allen has matured to the point that this is a challenge he is embracing and will run head first into the fire and his team will follow with the same inner confidence allowing the Bills to adapt, overcome and preserver all the arrows hurled from the mighty King in defense of their crown.
Good Morning
So, as we awake this fine championship morning, the King still takes its rightful seat on the throne, but the final story will be told by nightfall as the valiant challenger that will have to bow once again at the foot of the throne or this will mark the last day of the King’s oh so glorious Reign! See you in 2 weeks! GOOD FORTUNE TO ALL! -PhD!
OTHER PLAYS:
2-TEAM-6 POINT TEASER:
Eagles –PK/Bills +8
2-TEAM-6 POINT TEASER:
Commanders-Eagles Over 41/Bills-Chiefs Over 42
OVERALL RECORD:
2024 47-54-5 47%
2023 60-42-3 60%
2022 64-57-3 53%
2021 61-53-1 54%
2020 55-46-6 55%
2019 54-53-4 50%
2018 49-30-2 62%
2017 48-47-3 50%
2016 48-42-3 53%
2015 36-18-5 67%
GOOD FORTUNE TO ALL! -PhD