Cody’s
He been a gold mine in NFL this season Cody
Sunday NFL Best Prop Bet
Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles
Saquon Barkley Over 22.5 Yards Longest Rush
Saquon Barkley is on a generational run right now and he will cook against the Commanders this weekend. His line is currently set at 125.5 rushing yards… which is crazy - and even crazier that he probably still covers.
The Commanders have allowed the fourth most rushing yards to running back this season. They also rank bottom-10 for explosive rush yards allowed - meaning they give us big plays to opposition running backs… and now they face the most explosive back in the league.
Saquon is only behind Derrick Henry this season for the most 20+ yard runs (17) but leads the league in 30+ yard runs with 10… he’s also cleared 50+ yards SIX times, which is double Derrick Henry in second.
Barkley has been unbelievable late into the season too and he’s cleared this line in 3 of his last 4 games. It’s been a theme throughout the year though and he’s had a 20+ yard rush in 7 of his last 9. Even more promising is that he’s cleared this line in both games against the Commanders this season with rushes of 39 yards and 68 yards.
Jalen Hurts is banged up for this game so we should see an even bigger reliance on the run game here. Expect volume for Saquon and some huge plays. This line feels too low for the most explosive back in the NFL.
Odds are currently -120 on BetMGM. Happy to take over 23.5 too.
21+, gamble responsibly.
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Betting Intel
Saquon Barkley’s rushing line of 125.5 yards is one of the highest I have ever seen. Having said that, I’d still take the over. He had 146 and 150 rushing yards against the Commanders in the regular season. I also like his rushing attempts line of 24.5.
If the Commanders decide to stack the box to try stop Saquon, it could free up AJ Brown… He’s been quiet in the playoffs, but thrives against man coverage. The Commanders would be forced to play man if they stack the box. Could be worth taking a flyer on him for 80+ yards at +195.
Terry McLaurin has the talent to put up big numbers against Philly, but the Eagles have allowed the 3rd fewest yards to outside receivers this season. This opens the door for Dyami Brown to go big. He’s had 89 and 98 yards in his last two games and has 92 receiving yards in 30 career snaps vs Darius Slay.
Patrick Mahomes is the 8th-highest graded QB against two-high coverage looks, per PFF. The Bills defense ranks 4th in the NFL in the frequency of two-high coverages played, making them a prime matchup for Mahomes' ability to excel in those situations. The Bills defense also allow the 3rd most receptions in the league - Mahomes is currently 3rd in the NFL for passing attempts per game. Expect a lot of passing from the Chiefs on Sunday.
The last time Austin Ekeler faced the Eagles he led the team in receptions (8) and yards (89). He’s consistently targeted by Daniels and has hit his line of 24.5 in both playoff games so far.