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Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles -6
Underdogs were 4-0 ATS in the divisional round and are 7-3 ATS this postseason. Home teams are 6-4 ATS. Unders are 6-4.
Home teams were 0-2 ATS in conference championships last season. Over the last three postseasons, home teams are 2-4 ATS and unders are 5-1 in conference championship games.
The Eagles are 16-24-1 ATS when laying at least four points under Nick Sirianni including playoffs and 6-14 ATS including playoffs since the start of last season (5-6 ATS this season).
Washington is 15-5 ATS in the playoffs since 1987, including 3-0 ATS since 2020.
The Commanders are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games.
The Commanders are 5-3 outright and 6-2 ATS as underdogs this season, with three straight outright wins. They are 3-2 outright and 4-1 ATS when getting at least four points, with overs going 4-1 in those games.
The Commanders are 9-1 ATS when the over/under is 46 or higher this season.
The Eagles have won nine straight home games (5-4 ATS). They are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.
The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in division games this season.
Since 1999, teams favored by at least four points in conference championship games are 10-16 ATS. They are 0-3 ATS and 1-2 outright in the last three games.
The Bills were 12-7 ATS this season, while the Chiefs were 7-11 ATS. The Bills also went over their team total in 14 of 19 games, the highest rate in the NFL.
This is the eighth straight matchup between Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes where neither team is favored by more than three points, the longest streak in any quarterback head-to-head matchup in the Super Bowl era.
Patrick Mahomes is 22-9-1 ATS (.710) when the line is between +3 and -3, and Josh Allen is 25-15-2 ATS (.625). The Bills have covered four straight games in that role.
Allen and Mahomes are 4-4 outright and ATS against each other. However, while Allen is 4-1 outright and ATS against Mahomes in the regular season, Mahomes is 3-0 outright and ATS in the playoffs. All three playoff meetings have gone over the total (overs are 6-2 overall in their matchups).
Mahomes is 12-5 ATS in his playoff career, including 6-1 ATS in his last seven games. The only non-cover in his last seven games came last week when the Chiefs won by 9 as 9.5-point favorites on the closing line.
The Chiefs are 9-0 outright at home this season but only 3-6 ATS and 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.
Four straight Bills road games have gone over the total.
The Chiefs have won nine games this season in which they did not cover the spread (9-2), the most wins in a single season in the Super Bowl era (including playoffs). Mahomes is 36-24 outright when not covering the spread (.600), the only quarterback in the Super Bowl era with a winning record in that role (minimum five games).
Allen is 19-15-1 ATS in his career as an underdog
The Chiefs are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games.
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