Personal Plays:

In-the-system Plays: None posted so far; plenty in consideration

"What the hell are you doing?" Plays (all slightly out of the parameter metrics, but not by much)

• Houston (MNF) -1 (W)/Pittsburg +2.5/Detroit -1.5/Minny +2.5 ($100 = $300)
• Houston MNF -1 (W)/Pittsburg +2.5 ($120 = $100)
• Pitt +2.5/Detroit -1/Wash -4/TB +1/Minny +3/Houston -2.5 ($100 = $600

Random Parly: Houston (MNF) -7 (W)/Pittsburg -3.5/Detroit -7.5

Record For Posted Plays:

“In-the-system”: 3-6-1 (-$310)

Last week: None listed

“What the Hell are you Doing” system: 10-10 (+$2,150) - Last week:

• Buffalo +3.5/San Fran -0.5/Houston -1.5 Loser -$130
• Detroit -7/Pitts +9/GB PK/Chargers +4.5/Minny PK/Washington +9 Winner +$600
• Washington +10/GB +1/Minny PK/49ers -.05 – Lost -$100

Week 12 Thoughts:

While there are a number of games that can be played in the system, this feels like Week 11 all over.  Not a lot of convincing games to play, but if you are brave, you could dance outside the lines and make some cash.

For the in-system games, you got to monitor the QB situation in SF, as Purdy is listed as day-to-day. GB should do enough defensively to win and might try to make a “past history” style statement.  Will the new OC in Chicago continue after last week’s successes to improve and keep in within 10 against the Vikings D that likes to feast against average teams.

My feeling on the best “in-system” play lies in the Houston/Rams/Chargers plays. All three are at home.  All three are playing well and there is no reason to believe that they can’t keep up with (Rams/Chargers) with their opponents or to just win by more than a FG (Houston).

If you are brave to play the Sweethearts – I’m looking at KC (-11) and Washington (-10 - I really want to get this to 10.5, but will play the PK if needed).  For the team three partner, let’s go Chargers (+2.5).  If the Chargers don’t win outright, they are not going to get beat by more than 13.

Trap alert – Detroit is on fire right now, but the -7 seems somewhere off.  I don’t know what it is, but it has “mini trap” written all over it. This could be a middling play of both Detroit (-1) and Indy (+13). The other is TB.  Why is this -6? The NYG are playing Pizza Boy and TB is coming off a bye.  Is there a weather alert we don’t know about? Injuries? Why isn’t this -8?

***There are a few games tracking on the borderlands of moving outside the numbers.  Pay attention to those through the weekend***

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Week #12 Lines:

For the purposes of tracking the results and staying consistent, I will be using current lines from my local service.  I use Pregame.com (https://pregame.com/game-center) as a research tool but feel that it’s best to give you the lines from the place I’m going to bet.  Please note that the results posted next week may differ from what is below due to line movement. 

This will show the total and the Record of that team as a 6pt teaser in the current situation this week. (Original records were based on teams being dogs, but I have included in the records for this year teams as favorites because I’m a moron.  Will do a proper vet over the offseason). The total is only on this chart so you can reference it.

Finally, if there is a late addition to the criteria after original post date, I will do what I can to provide an update for everyone on the newest addition to the play list.

The unofficial list of Wong teasers this week are:

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* needs further vetting during the offseason for accurate records
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Week 11 Review

First and foremost – F*&K THE 49ERS.  That’s my feeling on last week. While there weren’t a large number of games within the system, there were plenty of plays available to cash out if you were brave enough to push the boundaries.  Personally, as you can see from above, I had a $1,000 swing just off of SF alone.  Their inability to tackle at key moments took a $700 win to a $300 loss.  Still stayed in the positive money, but man that’s annoying. Every week seems to have "one" bogey team.

Second thought – Dumpster fires are ablaze in multiple locations right now – Dallas, NYG, and Jax.  At this point, it’s a might as well auto fade on all of them until their players are healthy or it’s next season (pick which team fits that model for you). There are plenty of teams that just cover it seems regardless of which style you play – Detroit, Minnesota, Chargers, and the Bills. These guys aren’t just playing around anymore.

Week #11 Results:

Result: 2-2 (Dogs: 1-2 Favs: 1-0)

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* needs further vetting during the offseason for accurate records

Result: 1-1 (Dogs: 1-1; Favs: 0-0)

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2024 Results By Spread Types:

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All Weekly Total Details Based on 6-pt Teaser Plays Only

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Overall Weekly Records for 6pt teasers over the last 6 years (Week 18 is 2021 & after) - Including this year's numbers.

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6 Point Teasers:

Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is similar to Blackjack expert Stanford Wong's strategy

• - Tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3
  
  
• - Tease the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9.

NOTE: The original Wong Criteria does not include +3 or -9.5, but this is how the post was done previously so we will continue to use them. Over the past 3 years it has only made a difference of about 1.5% to include those.

It is not recommended to tease game totals.

The reasoning behind this methodology is that games are frequently decided by a final margin of 3, 6, or 7. So we play teasers in such a manner that we gain these numbers in the teaser movement.

In the week 1 post, u/blackjack_counter did a mathematical dive into whether we should be playing games at exactly +3, whether home teams are more reliable than road teams, and whether the total of the game matters.

Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have breakeven-or-better EV.
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Sweetheart Teasers:

10-point teasers are often called "sweetheart" teasers. Over the past three years, underdogs of +1½, +2, +2½ were 139-21 (86.88%).

After looking at a small sample size in 2017-2020, I've decided to track 10-point teasers according to the following methodology:

• - For 10-point teasers, tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½
• - Take the favorite at -10 or -10.5
• - Do not take sweetheart teasers at +3;
  
  

Reasoning: Over the past 3 years, favorites from -10 to -10.5 in a 10-point teaser have a record of 41-4 (91.1%) which is more than enough value to justify adding them to this.

For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. These are specifically for my book so yours may differ.
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Odds for Betting:

So how do I bet these? Typically, I will form 2-3 teasers taking in information from trusted sources and my own personal handicapping. Taking a look at their teaser records, line movements, etc. If you want less variance stick to 2 teamers. Yeah, they don’t have the nice + next to them but over the long run you will see more success.

Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have breakeven-or-better EV. For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. These are specifically for my book so yours may differ.

Historical Wong Teaser Records

*As of 08/26/22, the historical data has been standardized to the s3.sportsdatabase.com SDQL query for each teaser record. This yearly data report is run through that year’s regular season. This data excludes pushes. EX: Year 2018 data is collected from Week 1 to Week 17. 2021 season will be 18 weeks.

Overall Weekly Records for 6pt teasers over the last 6 years (Week 18 is 2021 & after) – This does not include the current season’s records.