Dave Essler on Washington Commanders vs. Cleveland Browns

Overview

[Dave Essler] (0:00 - 1:40)

Essler begins his breakdown by discussing the Cleveland Browns’ offense, which he describes as "harder to watch than Miami's," a statement that emphasizes the inefficiency and struggles of the Browns' offense. According to Essler, Cleveland’s offensive line has been severely impacted by injuries, which has made it difficult for the team to find consistency. He also focuses on Deshaun Watson, stating that he is "a shell of his former self." This critique of Watson is significant, as he was once considered one of the league’s top quarterbacks but has struggled to regain his form since returning from off-field issues. Essler suggests that the lawsuits and external pressures Watson is facing have further contributed to his poor play, especially on the road.

Player Analysis - Cleveland Browns

• Deshaun Watson: Watson’s performance has drastically declined. Essler's comment about him being "a shell of his former self" points to Watson's inability to perform at the level he once did, which has negatively affected the Browns’ overall offensive output. His struggles have been compounded by off-field distractions, which seem to impact his ability to focus and execute on the field, especially in away games.

• Jerome Ford: Essler also highlights Ford’s performance, noting that he had 58 rushing yards in the previous game, but 35 of those yards came on one carry. This suggests that Ford’s contribution was inconsistent, with one standout play accounting for the majority of his production, while the rest of the game was lackluster. This further emphasizes the lack of efficiency in the Browns’ offense.

Team Analysis - Cleveland Browns

Cleveland’s offense, as Essler describes, has been inconsistent and inefficient, with key players underperforming. He mentions that the Browns’ defense, which was once "elite," has regressed to being "adequate at best." In their last game, the defense allowed 152 rushing yards to a previously underwhelming Raiders ground attack, highlighting the defensive shortcomings that are now a significant weakness for the team.

Essler points out that Cleveland’s defense has allowed nearly 14 first-half points on average, which forces them to play from behind. He explains that the Browns are not built to make comebacks, as their offense lacks the firepower and consistency required to recover from early deficits.

Transition to Washington Commanders

Essler shifts the conversation to the Washington Commanders, highlighting the team’s recent performances and why he believes they are a better bet in this matchup. He begins by noting that Washington has been able to get ahead early in games, forcing opponents to chase them. This contrasts with Cleveland, which has struggled to keep pace in games where they fall behind.

Player Analysis - Washington Commanders

• Quarterback: Essler mentions that Washington has a rookie quarterback, though he does not specify the name, who has been performing well. Despite not producing explosive plays, the quarterback has been efficient, completing a high percentage of his passes and leading the team to 42 points in their last game. Essler’s focus on the quarterback’s efficiency highlights the importance of controlling the game and minimizing mistakes, a sharp contrast to Watson’s struggles.

• Rushing Attack: Essler praises Washington’s running game, noting that they ran for 217 yards in their last game. This statistic demonstrates the team’s ability to control the pace of the game and dominate the line of scrimmage, which is critical in maintaining leads and wearing down opposing defenses.

Team Analysis - Washington Commanders

Washington’s offensive efficiency is a key theme in Essler’s analysis. He highlights that the team has committed the least number of turnovers this season, which indicates a disciplined and well-coached offense. Despite not relying on big plays, they have been able to score consistently by staying efficient and minimizing mistakes. In contrast to Cleveland, Washington has been able to control games and avoid falling behind, which plays into their strength as a team that excels when playing with a lead.

Essler also highlights Washington’s defense, which he believes was written off too early in the season. He points out that in their last game, the defense held Kyler Murray to 142 passing yards, and when adjusted for four sacks, that number drops to 114. This shows that Washington’s defense has been effective in applying pressure and limiting opposing quarterbacks, which will be crucial against a struggling Watson.

Key Statistic: Third-Down Conversions

One of the most significant statistics Essler mentions is third-down conversions. He highlights that Washington is ranked first in the league in offensive third-down conversions, while Cleveland ranks last. This disparity is crucial, as converting on third down allows teams to extend drives, control the clock, and ultimately score points. Washington’s ability to stay on the field and sustain drives is a key reason why Essler is confident in their ability to cover the spread.

Home-Field Advantage

Essler concludes his analysis by emphasizing Washington’s home-field advantage. The Commanders are coming off two road wins and are returning home for their second home game of the season. Essler believes that the excitement and momentum surrounding the team will amplify their home-field advantage, giving them an additional edge in this matchup.

Conclusion

In summary, Dave Essler’s decision to bet on the Washington Commanders at -3 is based on a thorough analysis of both teams. Cleveland’s offensive struggles, highlighted by Watson’s decline and an underperforming offensive line, are significant factors working against them. Additionally, Cleveland’s defense has regressed, and the team’s inability to convert on third downs further hampers their chances of success.

In contrast, Washington’s efficiency on both sides of the ball, particularly their ability to control the game and convert on third downs, makes them the better pick. With a strong rushing attack, an efficient quarterback, and a defense that has been improving, Essler believes Washington will cover the spread and emerge victorious in this matchup.