Just passing on

NFL underdogs of 6+ points are now 9-8 SU and 14-2-1 ATS (87.5%) through four weeks — covering the spread by 7.3 PPG.

In the last 20 years, 65% ATS for 6+ pt dogs is the closest any season has been to this mark through four weeks.

If we go back to 1960, here are the best seasons through four weeks for 6+ pt dogs:
2024: 14-2-1 ATS (87.5%)
1982: 3-1 ATS (75%)
1978: 18-6-1 ATS (75%)

Dogs of 6+ are 9-8 SU through four weeks. For comparison, dogs of 6+ were 3-14 SU through four weeks last year and were 20-87-1 SU (18.7%) between 2019-23 through the first four weeks of the season. Dogs of 6+ haven’t been above .500 SU through four weeks since 1983.

Ice Cold

Public Bettors Struggle

The betting public (51%+ of tickets) are 22-38-2 ATS this season, with a $100 bettor down $1,795 – the worst start for the betting public through four weeks in the last 20 years.

Public by week:
+ Week 4: 5-8-1 ATS
+ Week 3: 6-10 ATS
+ Week 2: 5-10-1 ATS
+ Week 1: 6-10 ATS

Looking overall at how the public fared ATS in the NFL last year, they went 139-115-9 ATS, with a $100 bettor up $1,063 — the best single regular season for the public in the Bet Labs database dating back to 2003.

Tight Lines

Small Spread Early Season

The average point spread for an NFL favorite through four weeks is sitting around -4.2 PPG this season.

That is the lowest mark for any season through the first four weeks since 1982, when there was an NFL strike where Weeks 3-10 were missed, so the data for Weeks 1, 2, 11, 12 was 3.99.

Prior to that, this is the lowest mark through 4 weeks since 1960.

No. 1 Stunner

Caleb Can Join Eli

Caleb Williams has started his NFL career 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS, including 2-0 SU/ATS as a favorite.

Since the merger in 1970, only 1 of 33 QBs taken 1st overall has won and covered their first three starts as a favorite: Eli Manning.

A Different Game

Big Passing Days

So far during 2024, we’ve had just 15 QBs throw for 300+ passing yards. Those 15 QBs are 6-9 SU and just 3-11-1 ATS.

Through two NFL weeks, we had five QBs throw for 300+ yds. None of those teams had covered the spread (0-4-1 ATS). The 1st time since 1980 no team w/300+ pass yds has covered in the 1st two weeks.