In Week 4 of the NFL season, Steve Fezzik and Munaf Manji analyze several "phony final" scores—games where the final results do not accurately reflect the teams' performances due to anomalous plays or unusual circumstances. These games provide valuable lessons for bettors and fans alike as they illustrate how luck, random events, and a few key plays can drastically influence the outcomes and perceptions of NFL games. In this breakdown, we will explore Fezzik’s insights on specific games and the implications they carry for future betting and team evaluations.

Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints (00:02)

Speaker: Steve Fezzik

Steve Fezzik begins by discussing the Atlanta Falcons’ narrow victory over the New Orleans Saints. Despite winning the game, the Falcons failed to cover the spread, which fluctuated between -2.5 and -3 points. Fezzik highlights two highly unusual plays that helped the Falcons score: one was a pick-six where the ball was deflected 20 feet into the air before being caught and returned for a touchdown, and the other involved a quirky recovery in the end zone. Such freakish plays rarely occur, and Fezzik points out that these touchdowns do not reflect Atlanta's overall quality of play.

Even though the Falcons won, Fezzik recommends a downgrade for Atlanta, arguing that the team’s win was more a result of luck than skill. On the other hand, New Orleans deserves an upgrade, as their overall performance was more solid than the score suggests. Fezzik believes that the Saints were a more consistent team throughout the game, and without those unusual plays, they could have won or at least come closer to doing so.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers (02:08)

Speaker: Steve Fezzik

Next, Fezzik turns his attention to the Minnesota Vikings’ dominant performance against the Green Bay Packers. Minnesota jumped out to a commanding 28-0 lead early in the game, and Green Bay’s eventual comeback wasn’t enough to change the narrative of the game. Fezzik shares an interesting personal anecdote: he had bet on the Packers in a look-ahead line when there was uncertainty about Jordan Love’s status as Green Bay’s quarterback. Once Love’s return was confirmed, the line shifted, and Fezzik's bet turned into a push, underscoring how unpredictable these games can be.

Despite Green Bay’s late surge, Fezzik recommends a downgrade for the Packers. They failed to capitalize on critical moments and fell too far behind to realistically contend for a win. On the other hand, Minnesota deserves an upgrade for their commanding lead and overall control of the game. Aaron Jones’ return to the Vikings lineup added another dimension to their offense, while Justin Jefferson and Sam Darnold both contributed to Minnesota’s offensive power. Fezzik notes that this game shows Minnesota’s rise to an undefeated 4-0 record, solidifying their status as one of the stronger teams in the league.

Chicago Bears vs. Los Angeles Rams (04:05)

Speaker: Steve Fezzik

The final game Fezzik analyzes is the Chicago Bears’ 6-point victory over the Los Angeles Rams. According to Fezzik, this game was a classic example of a phony final. The Bears were outgained by 60 yards and outperformed in terms of yards per play (0.7 fewer yards per play than the Rams). Despite these deficits, the Bears managed to win, thanks in large part to a few key breaks that went their way.

Fezzik classifies the Bears’ win as a phony final because the statistics suggest that the Rams were the better team throughout most of the game. However, a combination of good fortune and timely plays allowed the Bears to come out on top. Deandre Swift, who had struggled during the first three weeks of the season, finally broke out with a significant performance, boosting the Bears’ run game. While Swift’s performance was a bright spot, Fezzik believes that Chicago’s overall performance was lacking, and the win was more about lucky bounces than dominance.

Key Player Statistics and Analysis

• Aaron Jones (Minnesota Vikings): Returning to Lambeau Field, Jones played a key role in Minnesota’s offense. His return added a crucial element to the Vikings' game plan, allowing them to take control early and dominate the Packers.

• Jordan Love (Green Bay Packers): Despite leading a late-game comeback, Love’s efforts were not enough to prevent Green Bay from receiving a downgrade. His performance, while commendable in parts, came too late in the game to impact the overall outcome.

• Deandre Swift (Chicago Bears): Swift had his breakout game in Week 4, finally showing his potential after a quiet start to the season. His performance was instrumental in Chicago’s win, though Fezzik emphasizes that the Bears were still outplayed in other aspects of the game.

Key Team Insights

• Atlanta Falcons: Despite winning, the Falcons could not cover the spread, largely due to two anomalous touchdowns. Fezzik believes that their performance was weaker than the final score implies, and they deserve a downgrade for their overall play.

• New Orleans Saints: Even in defeat, the Saints played well enough to earn an upgrade. Their defense held strong for much of the game, and without Atlanta’s freak plays, the Saints could have had a different outcome.

• Minnesota Vikings: Minnesota’s dominance over Green Bay, coupled with the return of key players like Aaron Jones, makes them a team to watch. Their 28-0 lead early in the game was a testament to their improved performance, earning them an upgrade.

• Green Bay Packers: Green Bay’s inconsistency and reliance on a late-game comeback reflect their struggles in Week 4. Despite Jordan Love’s efforts, the team fell too far behind to pose a real threat, leading to a downgrade.

• Chicago Bears: The Bears won despite being outplayed by the Rams. Deandre Swift’s breakout performance was a positive for Chicago, but the team’s overall performance was underwhelming, and their win was more about good fortune than skill.

Conclusion

Week 4 of the NFL season featured several games with misleading final scores, where the winning teams were not necessarily the better performers. The Atlanta Falcons and Chicago Bears benefited from luck and anomalous plays, leading Fezzik to downgrade them despite their victories. On the other hand, the Minnesota Vikings earned an upgrade for their dominant performance, while the New Orleans Saints played well enough to merit an upgrade even in defeat. The analysis provided by Steve Fezzik highlights how critical it is to look beyond the final score and examine the underlying stats and plays to truly understand a team’s performance.