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Sunday Best NFL prop Bet
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers
Aaron Jones Over 56.5 Rushing Yards
Aaron Jones is cooking in this powerful Vikings offense. He’s been a threat in the pass game but his the biggest impact has been on the ground. Jones is coming off a 19 carry, 102 yard game against the Texans in Week 3 which makes this line even more surprising as he gets a great matchup here.
The only game he’s gone under this line was against the Niners, where he had 32 yards from 9 attempts before leaving with an injury… Ty Chandler entered the game and had 88 yards. Jones averages 5.4 YPA this season and he’ll comfortably get 12+ carries in this game.
The Packers haven’t had much success defending the run so far this season. They’ve allowed 4.7 rushing YPA this season which ranks #26 in the NFL. Two running backs have covered 100+ rushing yards through the first three weeks: Saquon Barkley (24 att/109 yards) and Jonathan Taylor (12 att/103 yards).
The Titans RBs didn’t have the same luck in Week 3 but this was primarily due to game script. The Vikings will likely be leading, or it will at least be competitive, so Aaron Jones will get a good game script against the Packers and his usage will be more in line with that of Barkley and Taylor.
The Packers allowed a lot of big plays to RBs too. Their defense currently ranks third worst in the league for explosive run percentage (9%) and second worst in explosive yards allowed (42.6%)… meaning they allow runs of 15+ yards at one of the worst rates in the league. Aaron Jones will exploit this weakness and go big against his old team. 56.5 looks way too low for a back that’s averaging 76 yards per game this season.
Odds are currently -110 on bet365.
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