Personal Plays:

In-the-system Plays:
3-Team 6-Pt Play: Vikings/Jets/Saints 

3-Team 10-Pt Play: Minny/Buffalo/SF

"What the hell are you doing?" Plays:


Record For Posted Plays:

In-the-system: 0-2 (-$220)

Last week - **** Bungles

1) 2 Teamer - Minny +8/Cincy -1.5 - Lost
2) 5 Teamer - Minny +8.5/Cincy -1.5/GB +9/Ariz +9/Atl +9.5 - Lost



Week 4 Thoughts - Historical "Buyer Beware" Week

This week is historically a low percentage week, so tread with caution.  A few teams that have historically high averages have difficult matches.  The Colts team against Pittsburg is interesting, as is the Packers/Minnesota game.  The Vikings at 3 points may be a perfect spot right now. The Rams as a road dog against Chicago and Tampa as a home dog against Philly just feel like smart plays, but could turn sideways randomly, in my opinion.  This may be the one weekend in which taking the favorites down to inside the field goal is the play (though they haven’t delivered yet).  The play to make some of your bank back in smaller, straight plays will be the Sweethearts.  While it requires 3 plays, I think a Bills/Vikings/"your choice” will at least keep you even if you lose a different play in the 2-teamers.

For the purposes of tracking the results and staying consistent, I will be using current lines from my local service.  I use Pregame.com (pregame.com/game-center) as a research tool but feel that it’s best to give you the lines from the place I’m going to bet.  This provides clear honesty on my thoughts and actions.  I suggest that you visit Pregame.com, as they will post the lines from multiple books for review. Please note that the results posted next week may differ from what is below due to line movement. 

This will show the total and the Record of that team as a 6pt teaser in the current situation this week. So, if they’re an underdog, their record below will be their record as an underdog. The total is only on this chart so you can reference it.

Finally, if there is a late addition to the criteria after original post date, I will do what I can to provide an update for everyone on the newest addition to the play list.

The unofficial list of Wong teasers this week are:

Week 3 Review

Week 3 was great for all the dogs and a clean sweep!  If you played any combination of teams sitting in + range, you did great, considering it was a rout!  Unfortunately, favorites once again teased down to inside a field goal lost all the games. Not only did Cincinnati lose, but they have also now lost both games in which they were the favorites in the -7.5 to -9.5 range.  If you played Sweethearts, you also did great.  Right now, both 6pt and 10 pt plays are in the positive range. Week 3 was right around the historical average and continues to be a great play.  Week 4 has a few games that show promise but a few matchups could be a trap week. I have added the Chargers to the Week 3 Review due to the line closing right at the proper number on Sunday, but I was unable to update the board in time for all players. Please note, I will make adjustments to the teams available based on line changes, so keep your eyes sharp. 

2024 Results

All Weekly Total Details Based on 6-pt Teaser Plays Only

6 Point Teasers:

Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is similar to Blackjack expert Stanford Wong's strategy:

• Tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3
• Tease the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9.

NOTE: The original Wong Criteria does not include +3 or -9 but this is how the post was done previously so we will continue to use them. Over the past 3 years it has only made a difference of about 1.5% to include those.

It is not recommended to tease game totals.

The reasoning behind this methodology is that games are frequently decided by a final margin of 3, 6, or 7. So we play teasers in such a manner that we gain these numbers in the teaser movement.

In the week 1 post, u/blackjack_counter did a mathematical dive into whether we should be playing games at exactly +3, whether home teams are more reliable than road teams, and whether the total of the game matters.

Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have breakeven-or-better EV.

Sweetheart Teasers:

10-point teasers are often called "sweetheart" teasers. Over the past three years, underdogs of +1½, +2, +2½ were 139-21 (86.88%).

After looking at a small sample size in 2017-2020, I've decided to track 10-point teasers according to the following methodology:

• For 10-point teasers, tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½;
• Take the favorite at -10 or -10.5
• Do not take sweetheart teasers at +3;

Reasoning: Over the past 3 years, favorites from -10 to -10.5 in a 10-point teaser have a record of 41-4 (91.1%) which is more than enough value to justify adding them to this.

For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. These are specifically for my book so yours may differ.

Odds for Betting:

So how do I bet these? Typically, I will form 2-3 teasers taking in information from trusted sources and my own personal handicapping. Taking a look at their teaser records, line movements, etc. If you want less variance stick to 2 teamers. Yeah, they don’t have the nice + next to them but over the long run you will see more success.

Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have breakeven-or-better EV. For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. These are specifically for my book so yours may differ.

Historical Wong Teaser Records

*As of 08/26/22, the historical data has been standardized to the s3.sportsdatabase.com SDQL query for each teaser record. This yearly data report is run through that year’s regular season. This data excludes pushes. EX: Year 2018 data is collected from Week 1 to Week 17. 2021 season will be 18 weeks.

Overall Weekly Records for 6pt teasers over the last 6 years (Week 18 is 2021 & after) – This does not include the current season’s records.

 This shows that, historically, weeks 3 and 8 are the best weeks to bet these teasers for some reason.