NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Arizona Cardinals vs. Detroit Lions

In his Week 3 NFL breakdown, sports analyst Dave Essler dives deep into his top pick: the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals, underdog by three points, face off against the Detroit Lions, a team that saw its stock rise after narrowly missing a Super Bowl appearance last season. But Essler is betting against Detroit, citing several key reasons related to player performance, team stats, and defensive weaknesses. Let’s break down his analysis, explore the crucial game dynamics, and understand why Arizona might just surprise everyone this week.

The Jared Goff Dilemma (00:00 - 00:27)

Essler opens by discussing Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff, a player whose performance often dictates his team’s success. Essler explains that Goff's passer rating (QBR) was better during his time with the Los Angeles Rams than it has been with Detroit. When the Lions came close to making the Super Bowl last year, many fans prematurely elevated them to contender status, and Goff's leadership was a significant reason why. However, Essler now questions whether the hype was warranted.

The key takeaway here is that Goff’s individual performance is crucial. He is a quarterback who, as Essler suggests, largely determines how well Detroit plays each game. This fact alone makes him a focal point for both critics and supporters of the Lions.

Goff’s Winning Formula (00:28 - 00:43)

In one of the more eye-opening moments, Essler provides some fascinating statistics on Goff. Over the course of his career, Goff has 67 wins under his belt, during which he has thrown 130 touchdowns and only 30 interceptions. These are impressive numbers. However, the story changes dramatically when you look at Goff’s 51 career losses. In those games, he has thrown 56 touchdowns and 55 interceptions—almost a 1:1 ratio. What this highlights is that Goff is a quarterback who falters under pressure, especially when the team is behind.

The takeaway from this is simple: when Goff plays well, the Lions are a formidable team. But when he struggles, his decision-making and accuracy fall apart, making Detroit much more vulnerable. It’s a classic boom-or-bust situation that teams can exploit.

Defensive Breakdown: Arizona vs. Detroit (00:44 - 01:53)

Essler shifts gears and dives into defensive statistics, particularly focusing on Arizona's defensive strength. He notes that while the Cardinals managed to beat the Rams, a much more telling performance came against the Buffalo Bills. Even though the Cardinals didn’t win that game, they held Buffalo to just 350 yards of total offense. This is significant because the Bills are a high-powered offense that went on to dominate the Miami Dolphins the following week. Additionally, the Cardinals held the Rams to just 245 yards, further cementing their defensive capabilities.

Essler also highlights that Detroit has struggled against mobile quarterbacks. He provides a list of quarterbacks who beat the Lions last year: Lamar Jackson, Jordan Love, Justin Fields, and Geno Smith. The common denominator among these players is their ability to run. Mobile quarterbacks seem to expose Detroit’s defensive weaknesses, and this could be a critical point in the upcoming game as Arizona’s quarterback, Kyler Murray, fits this mold perfectly.

Defensive Stat Spotlight:

• Buffalo Bills: Arizona held Buffalo to 350 yards, showing their ability to contain even elite offenses.
• Los Angeles Rams: Limiting the Rams to 245 yards showcases Arizona’s consistency in shutting down opposing offenses.

This is why Essler believes Arizona has a solid chance in this matchup—Detroit has a known vulnerability against mobile quarterbacks, and Arizona’s defense has shown it can hang with the best.

Kyler Murray’s Impact

When it comes to Arizona’s offensive scheme, Kyler Murray becomes the pivotal player. Murray’s dual-threat ability as both a passer and a runner will likely give Detroit’s defense problems. Essler underscores the fact that Detroit has had consistent trouble containing quarterbacks who can extend plays with their legs, as evidenced by their struggles last season. Murray’s mobility not only opens up the passing game but also forces Detroit’s linebackers and defensive ends to account for his running ability, leaving openings for Arizona’s skill players.

Essler makes it clear that if Murray can replicate his usual form, the Lions will struggle to keep the Cardinals out of the end zone. It’s a chess match where Murray’s mobility could checkmate Detroit’s defensive strategy.

Arizona’s History of Upsets (01:54 - 02:30)

Essler draws a parallel between this upcoming game and one from last season. In Week 2 of 2023, the Cardinals were heavy underdogs at home against the Dallas Cowboys. Arizona, a whopping 11.5-point underdog, didn’t just cover the spread—they won the game outright. This upset serves as a reminder of Arizona’s capability to surprise when expectations are low.

While the Cardinals’ roster has undergone changes, with Josh Dobbs gone and new players like Marvin Harrison stepping in, Essler believes that Arizona has retained its scrappy underdog mentality. This mentality makes them a dangerous team to bet against, especially when they are given points in a game where their defense and quarterback align so well against the opposition.

Why Arizona +3 is a Smart Bet

Essler’s final conclusion is clear: betting on Arizona plus three points is a smart move. He supports this claim with a blend of team stats, player analysis, and historical trends. Goff’s inconsistency is a major concern for Detroit, especially when you consider his near-even touchdown-to-interception ratio in games he loses. Furthermore, Detroit’s defense has shown a vulnerability to mobile quarterbacks, which plays directly into Kyler Murray’s strengths.

On the other hand, Arizona’s defense has already proven it can contain high-powered offenses like Buffalo and the Rams. With Murray leading the offense and Arizona’s defense capable of shutting down key players, Essler argues that the Cardinals can keep this game close, if not win it outright.

Conclusion

Dave Essler’s pick for NFL Week 3 is a calculated and well-supported bet on the Arizona Cardinals. By analyzing Goff’s inconsistent play, highlighting Arizona’s defensive prowess, and recognizing Detroit’s struggles against mobile quarterbacks, Essler makes a compelling case. The Cardinals have a history of upsets, and this matchup against the Lions looks to be another opportunity for Arizona to outperform expectations. Whether or not they win, Arizona’s ability to keep games close, paired with Detroit’s defensive vulnerabilities, makes them a solid choice as underdogs. Bet Arizona plus three, and keep an eye on Kyler Murray’s impact.

Key Points:

 Goff’s Inconsistencies: Jared Goff’s stats reveal a stark contrast between his performances in wins and losses.

 Detroit’s Vulnerabilities: The Lions struggle against mobile quarterbacks, which gives Arizona a critical edge with Kyler Murray.

 Arizona’s Defensive Strength: The Cardinals have held top-tier offenses like Buffalo and the Rams to modest yardage, proving their defensive capabilities.

 Kyler Murray’s X-Factor: Murray’s mobility will put pressure on Detroit’s defense, which has had trouble containing quarterbacks who can run.

 Upset Potential: Arizona has a recent history of pulling off big upsets, particularly as underdogs, making them a dangerous team to bet against.

 Betting Context: Essler sees value in Arizona plus three, given the statistical matchups and player dynamics.

 Cardinals’ Resilience: Arizona’s defense has consistently performed against high-caliber offenses, which bodes well for their Week 3 chances.

 Goff Under Pressure: Goff’s tendency to throw interceptions in losses makes him a liability if the game doesn’t go Detroit’s way.

 Team Comparisons: Arizona’s defense is stronger than it appears on paper, particularly against the Lions' offensive style.

 Final Prediction: Essler’s smart money is on Arizona to cover the spread, with a real chance of upsetting Detroit.

Summary

In Week 3 of the NFL season, Dave Essler places his bet on the Arizona Cardinals, pointing to Jared Goff’s inconsistent performances and Arizona’s strong defense as the key factors. Goff’s inability to perform under pressure, paired with the Lions’ struggles against mobile quarterbacks, makes Arizona a valuable underdog pick. Essler argues that the Cardinals' defense and Kyler Murray’s mobility could lead to a close game, if not an outright win for Arizona.