In this Straight Outta Vegas AM episode, Scott Seidenberg and Steve Fezzik took an in-depth look at the upcoming Thursday Night Football matchup between the New York Jets and New England Patriots. The analysis focused on key team stats, injury updates, betting lines, and player performance predictions, helping fans and bettors get a comprehensive understanding of what to expect from this high-stakes Week 3 NFL showdown.
Context: A Divisional Rivalry on a Short Week
The Jets are entering this game as six-and-a-half-point favorites, hosting the Patriots at MetLife Stadium. This divisional rivalry is always a hotly contested matchup, but the Patriots’ current injury struggles could tilt the game in favor of the Jets. Seidenberg (02:34) kicked off the show by discussing the importance of this game and how both teams are facing unique challenges.
For the Jets, it’s their third game in 11 days, a grueling schedule that many would expect to wear down the players. However, Fezzik (03:05) reassured listeners that this short turnaround won’t be as impactful as it would later in the season, noting that early-season games allow players to recover quicker, and the Jets should be in good form for Thursday night.
Key Injuries Shaping the Game
The Patriots are struggling with a series of devastating injuries, especially on the offensive line. According to Fezzik, their left tackle, Lowe, is out, along with left guard Cole Strange and backup center Jake Andrews. Center David Andrews and right tackle Mike Oquenze are questionable but may try to play through injuries (01:49). This cluster of injuries could prove catastrophic for the Patriots, especially against a Jets defense that will be looking to exploit these weaknesses.
Fezzik emphasized that the Patriots, while appearing competitive at times, are actually one of the weaker teams in the NFL this season. Despite playing solidly in their first two games, he pointed out that the overall roster depth and the injuries make them a tough team to back in this game.
Jets' Stamina and Tactical Advantages
The Jets, on the other hand, are better positioned to handle the short week. Although they are playing their third game in 11 days, Fezzik reassured listeners that this won’t heavily impact them this early in the season. "It's not like weeks nine, 10, or 11," Fezzik remarked, "if anything, the short week is not going to be a big factor right now" (03:05).
Moreover, the Jets’ offensive strategy will be key in taking advantage of New England's defensive lapses. One significant aspect is how Aaron Rodgers excels in getting the ball out quickly. His fast release will help neutralize the Patriots' blitz-heavy defense, which has been their primary tactic so far this season. Fezzik and Seidenberg noted that New England's defensive schemes have struggled to defend the slot position (06:59), which sets the stage for the Jets’ wide receivers, particularly Alan Lazard.
Betting Strategy: Alan Lazard Over Two and a Half Receptions
A major prop bet to watch in this game is Alan Lazard to go over two and a half receptions. Seidenberg pointed out that New England has allowed more receptions to slot receivers than any other team in the league this season (06:59). With the Patriots heavily blitzing and focusing on shutting down Garrett Wilson, Lazard is likely to see a lot of targets in the slot, where the Patriots have been most vulnerable.
Aaron Rodgers’ quick decision-making and rapport with Lazard, formed during their time together in Green Bay, further support this prop bet. Seidenberg explained how Lazard is a trusted target for Rodgers, especially when the quarterback needs to get rid of the ball quickly (07:04). This combination makes Lazard a strong candidate for a big night, and over two and a half receptions seems like a solid bet.
The Betting Lines and Teaser Caution
The Jets are currently favored by six-and-a-half points. While this may be tempting for some bettors to tease down, Fezzik advised against it, highlighting the inefficiency of teasing numbers that are close to key points (04:18). He compared the math to paying $2.80 for gas when it’s available for $2.60 across the street, urging bettors to shop around for better money line prices instead of chasing teaser bets.
For those interested in straight bets, Seidenberg encouraged looking at the money line odds available at various sportsbooks, with Circa offering the Jets at -260 (04:49). By finding the best line, bettors can maximize their returns without taking on the additional risk of teaser bets.
Statistical Edge: Historical Trends Favor the Jets
Fezzik provided valuable insights into historical betting trends that strongly favor the Jets in this matchup. Teams that come off an overtime game with less than five days’ rest perform notoriously poorly against the spread (07:04). In fact, teams in this situation are just 3-21 ATS over the past two decades. New England is in exactly this spot, having played an overtime game just four days prior.
This historical trend, combined with New England's injury issues and the Jets’ advantage in key areas of the game, makes it difficult to see the Patriots covering the spread. The consensus between Seidenberg and Fezzik is that this is a favorable position for the Jets.
Aaron Rodgers’ Fast Release and the Slot Defense
Another critical factor in this game is Aaron Rodgers’ ability to get the ball out quickly. Seidenberg (07:04) compared Rodgers’ release time to Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa, noting that both quarterbacks are among the fastest in the NFL in terms of getting the ball out of their hands. This will be essential against a New England defense that blitzes heavily but struggles to cover the slot.
Seidenberg emphasized how Rodgers’ connection with Lazard, built over their years together in Green Bay, would be a key factor in this game. He predicted that Rodgers would target Lazard frequently, taking advantage of the Patriots' weak slot defense and the quarterback’s ability to execute quick throws under pressure.
Survivor Pool Considerations
For those involved in survivor pools, Seidenberg made a case for selecting the Jets this week (09:21). He explained that picking a Thursday night game can offer some peace of mind, as it allows bettors to sit back and relax on Sunday, having already secured a win. However, Fezzik cautioned against submitting a survivor pick too early in the week, advising bettors to wait until the latest information becomes available before making a final decision.
Conclusion: Jets Poised for a Victory
All signs point toward a New York Jets victory in this Thursday Night Football matchup. With the Patriots facing severe injury issues and statistical trends strongly favoring the Jets, Seidenberg and Fezzik are confident in a Jets win and believe they will cover the spread. Alan Lazard is primed for a breakout performance, with the Patriots struggling to defend the slot, and Aaron Rodgers’ quick release should neutralize New England's blitz-heavy defense.
Whether you’re betting on the money line, the spread, or player props like Lazard’s receptions, the Jets offer several opportunities for profitable bets in this primetime matchup.
Summary:
- Jets Favored: Jets are six-and-a-half-point favorites against a heavily injured Patriots team.
- Injury Problems: Patriots' offensive line is decimated, which hampers their chances of competing effectively.
- Jets Rested: The Jets' short week isn't expected to be a significant issue this early in the season.
- Prop Bet Focus: Alan Lazard is a strong pick to go over two and a half catches, with the Patriots' poor slot defense.
- Teaser Warning: Avoid teasing the spread down; shop for the best money line prices instead.
- Historical Trends: Teams like New England coming off overtime games with short rest have a poor 3-21 ATS record.
- Rodgers Advantage: Aaron Rodgers' quick release will exploit the Patriots' blitz-heavy defense.
- Betting Strategy: Finding the best money line price for the Jets is key to maximizing returns.
- Confident Jets Pick: Both Seidenberg and Fezzik are confident the Jets will win and cover the spread.
- Slot Defense Exploit: Rodgers and Lazard will take advantage of New England's struggles in defending the slot.