NFL Week 3 Betting Preview: Expert Analysis and Top Picks

In a recent episode of an NFL betting podcast, experts RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik, Scott Seidenberg, and Mackenzie Rivers delved into their top picks for Week 3 of the NFL season. The discussion covered in-depth analysis of team performances, player statistics, and betting strategies. Below is a comprehensive summary of their insights, along with key statistics and quotes from the conversation.

Tennessee Titans vs. Green Bay Packers

Steve Fezzik's Five-Weight Pick
Timestamp: (5:17 - 5:20)
Fezzik's top pick for the week is the Tennessee Titans at -1.5 against the Green Bay Packers. He bases his selection on both power ratings and situational factors.

Fezzik's Analysis:
Fezzik notes that, assuming Packers quarterback Jordan Love doesn't play, he makes the Titans a 3-point favorite based on his power ratings. He highlights that the Titans are coming off back-to-back "phony losses," where they won the statistical battle but lost the games due to mistakes by quarterback Malik Willis.

"Power rating-wise, assuming that Love doesn't go, I make the Titans three. So power ratings support it. I love the spot also."
(Steve Fezzik, 5:17 - 5:22)

Injury Concerns:
Fezzik is skeptical about Jordan Love's availability, despite reports of him practicing. He references insights from Dr. Chow at SIC, who believes it's "extremely unlikely" Love plays this week due to his injury.

"I see no reason why Green Bay is going to risk his health the rest of the year to have him play this game after Willis got them a win last week."
(Steve Fezzik, 6:00 - 6:07)

RJ Bell's Support:
RJ Bell also likes the Titans, making it his four-weight pick. He adds that teams often perform well in the first game after a key injury but struggle in the subsequent week.

"There's a phenomenon... when there's a key injury, the first game... look to play on the team in week one and look to fade them in week two."
(RJ Bell, 8:53 - 9:07)

Scott Seidenberg's First-Half Bet:
Timestamp: (13:43 - 14:10)
Scott prefers a first-half bet on the Titans at -0.5, citing that quarterback Malik Willis tends to perform better in the first half.

"Will Levis, 11 career NFL starts, 8-3 first-half ATS, 1-10 second-half ATS."
(Scott Seidenberg, 13:43 - 13:51)

Player Statistics:

• Malik Willis: Struggles in the second half, with a 1-10 ATS record.
• Jordan Love: Doubtful due to injury; the Packers may rely on backup quarterback Malik Willis.

New York Giants vs. Cleveland Browns

RJ Bell's Five-Weight Pick
Timestamp: (14:58 - 15:16)
RJ Bell picks the New York Giants at +6.5 against the Cleveland Browns, believing the line is too high and that the Giants are undervalued.

Bell's Analysis:
Bell argues that the Giants are fighting for their season and that head coach Brian Daboll's job may be on the line. He points out that the Giants have underperformed but are not as bad as public perception suggests.

"I think losing to Washington... that's one of the games you're supposed to win or at least have a chance to win."
(RJ Bell, 17:49 - 17:55)

Team Statistics:

• The Giants are among the bottom teams but are potentially better than their record indicates.
• The Browns are average in Fezzik's power ratings but are laying 6.5 points, which seems excessive.

Fezzik's Input:
Fezzik supports Bell's pick, noting that the Browns' quarterback Deshaun Watson is currently performing as a below-average quarterback.

"I think, again, like 22nd... Oh, 26th, RJ."
(Steve Fezzik, 23:54 - 23:56)

Indianapolis Colts vs. Chicago Bears

Scott Seidenberg's Five-Weight Pick
Timestamp: (27:37 - 28:20)
Scott selects the Colts at -1 against the Bears, focusing on the offensive disparities between the two teams.

Seidenberg's Analysis:
Scott highlights that the Colts are averaging 6.68 yards per play, while the Bears have a league-low 2.97 yards per play—the lowest through two weeks since the 2006 Raiders.

"I have not seen anything from Caleb Williams to make me want to bet him any game on the road."
(Scott Seidenberg, 28:14 - 28:20)

Player Statistics:

• Caleb Williams (Bears QB): Second-lowest yards per attempt (4.0) through two games since 1990.
• Sacked a league-high nine times, indicating offensive line issues.

RJ Bell's Concern:
Bell brings up the Colts' defense being on the field for 40 minutes in each of the first two games, potentially leading to fatigue.

"I think the fatigue... I think you maybe look first half here."
(RJ Bell, 33:07 - 33:13)

Carolina Panthers vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Mackenzie Rivers' Five-Weight Pick
Timestamp: (33:45 - 34:53)
Mackenzie picks the Panthers at +3.5, emphasizing the improvement with Andy Dalton starting over Bryce Young.

Rivers' Analysis:
He notes that Andy Dalton scored 27 points on the road in Seattle, whereas Bryce Young's Panthers are averaging 13 points per game. He believes the Panthers' offense is ready to "explode" with Dalton.

"I think their offense is ready to explode... the team's going to be excited to do that with Dalton."
(Mackenzie Rivers, 34:37 - 34:53)

Scott's Support:
Scott agrees, pointing out that the Panthers' receivers are getting open, but Bryce Young isn't finding them.

"The plays are working... they just don't have a quarterback that's going to be able to deliver it to him. Andy Dalton is that guy."
(Scott Seidenberg, 35:21 - 35:30)

Player Statistics:

• Andy Dalton: In the last three seasons, ranks 21st in EPA per play and 11th in success rate.
• Bryce Young: Ranks 39th out of 39 quarterbacks with 500+ snaps in EPA per play and success rate.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Detroit Lions

Steve Fezzik's Four-Weight Pick
Timestamp: (40:19 - 40:46)
Fezzik takes the Cardinals at +3, noting that Arizona has been a "bet-on team" this season.

Fezzik's Analysis:
He mentions that Arizona's offense has been impressive, particularly against the Rams. He believes the line should be 2.5, not 3.

"I see Arizona as a bet-on team... I think they'll have a big home-field advantage."
(Steve Fezzik, 40:30 - 40:38)

Concerns About Detroit:
RJ Bell brings up that Detroit under head coach Dan Campbell tends to perform well after a loss, which could be a counterpoint to Fezzik's pick.

"I would be concerned about Detroit under Campbell off a loss."
(RJ Bell, 42:27 - 42:31)

Team Statistics:

• Cardinals Offense: Has been effective, particularly quarterback Kyler Murray.
• Lions Trends: Jared Goff is 17-8 ATS after a loss.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons

RJ Bell's Three-Weight Pick
Timestamp: (51:15 - 52:17)
RJ picks the Chiefs at -3.5, despite acknowledging potential flat-spot concerns for Kansas City.

Bell's Analysis:
He argues that when something is "too obvious" in the NFL, it often doesn't happen. Despite the Chiefs having potential reasons to be flat, he believes they'll cover the spread.

"In the NFL... when something's too obvious, it doesn't tend to happen because it's obvious to the Kansas City Chiefs."
(RJ Bell, 53:06 - 53:17)

Fezzik's Counterpoint:
Fezzik disagrees, making Atlanta his two-weight pick. He believes the Chiefs are in a "sandwich game" and may not be motivated.

"You might say this... I'm well aware... this is like a sandwich game... you fade them in between."
(Steve Fezzik, 54:05 - 54:13)

Player and Team Statistics:

• Chiefs Injuries: Concerns about running back injuries and Travis Kelce's reduced targets.
• Falcons: May benefit from the Chiefs' potential lack of motivation.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Baltimore Ravens

RJ Bell's Two-Weight Pick
Timestamp: (64:47 - 65:22)
RJ selects the Dallas Cowboys at pick'em, questioning the rationale behind the Ravens being favored on the road despite being 0-2.

Bell's Analysis:
He points out that the Cowboys and Ravens had similar win totals entering the season, and Dallas is at home, yet the line favors Baltimore.

"This line makes no sense... it's in Dallas, and they're getting points."
(RJ Bell, 67:07 - 67:22)

Historical Trend:
He cites a rare trend where an 0-2 team is favored on the road against a team that isn't winless, noting that such teams are 1-7 ATS in the last 35 years.

Team Statistics:

• Cowboys: Coming off an embarrassing loss but are expected to rebound.
• Ravens: Underperforming and dealing with injuries.

Other Notable Picks and Insights

• Washington Commanders vs. Cincinnati Bengals: Both Fezzik and Scott pick the Commanders at +7.5, believing the line is too high given the Bengals' struggles.

• Minnesota Vikings vs. Houston Texans: Scott takes the Vikings at +2, emphasizing their strong defense under coordinator Brian Flores.

• Under in Rams vs. 49ers Game: Fezzik picks under 44.5 points, citing injuries to key offensive players like Deebo Samuel.

Conclusion

The experts provide a mix of analytical insights and statistical trends to support their Week 3 NFL picks. Key themes include taking advantage of lines that don't reflect team performances accurately and considering the impact of injuries on both player and team performance. Whether it's leveraging historical ATS trends or analyzing individual player stats, these insights aim to guide bettors toward more informed decisions for the upcoming NFL week.

Note: All betting lines and statistics are accurate as of the time of the podcast recording. Always check the latest odds and consult multiple sources before placing any bets.