Ravens +3 -115

My first instinct is to go with the Chiefs as the shorter favorite this year after losing to my Lions in game 1 last year. However, I don't think it is that simple. Looking back to the AFC Champ game, many things broke the Chiefs way. The fumble at the 1, the LJ pick in the endzone being the main two things that swung the game in favor of the Chiefs. I am of the opinion the Ravens need to prove something to themselves and perhaps we see a similar result as last year in the idea that KC loses their opening game.

Worth noting:
Jackson is 7-0 as a dog and only 15-20 as a favorite ATS last three years.
a QB/HC combo after winning 2 straight super bowls are 30-48 ATS the next season.
Chiefs are 6-0 ATS last 6. I don't know how much carry over there is in wanting to ride the hot hand, but they were dogs in 3 straight play off games and covered at home against a Miami team that can't play in the cold.

A couple other talking points is Ravens losing their DC. Not doubt that isn't great, but they did hire from within. I would expect them to keep their identity within the framework of the organization.
There is also a lot of talk about the WR room for KC. If you use Worthy in your handicap, why not mention the rookie CB Wiggins from Bal? He is a speedy rookie CB that could neutralize Worthy. What about the Chiefs losing Sneed? Point is I think it is easy to gravitate toward a certain talking point, but that is just one aspect of this game. 

Lastly, when you look at this game and who the previous SB does:
2020: Chiefs beat a bad Texans team (4-12) score of 34-20
2021: Bucs beat the Cowboys by 2
2022: Bills beat Rams 31-10
2023: Lions beat Chiefs 21-20

The last three games the SB team has played a decent opponent, two outright losses and a last second field goal. All this adds up to being comfortable taking the Ravens in this spot.


All the best to everyone this NFL season