Analyzing NFL Awards Bets: A Deep Dive into Scott Seidenberg & Mackenzie Rivers' Predictions

The latest episode of Straight Outta Vegas AM, featuring Scott Seidenberg and Mackenzie Rivers, takes listeners through an insightful journey into the world of NFL betting as the 2023 season kicks off. Packed with bold predictions, stat-backed observations, and intriguing discussions, this episode serves as a primer for NFL enthusiasts and seasoned bettors alike.

Throughout the podcast, both hosts bring their distinct perspectives on various NFL teams, players, and the broader betting landscape, with a heavy emphasis on awards and over-under win totals. Let's dive into the key moments, themes, and data that drive their conversation, unpacking both the logic and strategy behind their award picks.

The Impact of Key Players Returning from Holdouts (02:26)

The discussion begins with Mackenzie Rivers' analysis of the San Francisco 49ers. Rivers dives into the holdouts of crucial players such as Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk. Rivers notes that while Aiyuk received significant media attention, it’s Williams who truly makes the difference. With his return, the line shifted from a 3.5-point favorite against the Jets to a 4.5-point spread (03:39), underscoring his value to the team. Aiyuk's presence might be significant, but Williams is the foundation that powers the 49ers' offensive line.

This is where the betting edge lies, as Rivers emphasizes the importance of understanding market movements in relation to such player returns. Williams’ re-signing didn’t just restore fan confidence—it also shifted the Vegas odds.

Key Bets on NFL Awards: MVP, Offensive, and Defensive Players (07:53)

Seidenberg and Rivers spend a substantial portion of the episode making NFL awards predictions. Rivers offers his pick for NFL MVP, suggesting Jalen Hurts at 12-to-1 odds, based on the Eagles' strength and his pivotal role in their success. Seidenberg concurs but also mentions Josh Allen as a value bet at 9-to-1, noting his dual-threat ability as both a passer and rusher.

Rivers explains, "Josh Allen is the second-best quarterback in the league right now" (10:18), yet he remains undervalued in the MVP conversation. Both hosts agree that Allen’s capability to both pass and run makes him a unique MVP candidate, with his stats placing him among the league’s elite. They also throw in other picks like Jalen Hurts, emphasizing that a strong narrative could make or break an MVP campaign.

On the Offensive Player of the Year front, Mackenzie favors Garrett Wilson as a long-shot at 30-to-1 odds, citing the potential for a breakout season now that Wilson has Aaron Rodgers throwing to him. Seidenberg, ever the pragmatist, counters with a pick of Debo Samuel at 50-to-1 (11:59), referencing Samuel's stellar 2021 season where he totaled 1,800 all-purpose yards. The key takeaway here is to bet on players whose situations significantly improved during the offseason—like Wilson with Rodgers or Samuel as the 49ers’ Swiss Army knife.

For Defensive Player of the Year, the favorites—T.J. Watt and Micah Parsons—dominate the conversation, both listed at +550 odds. But Mackenzie suggests Nick Bosa, highlighting his off-year last season and the potential for a bounce-back performance in 2023. The reasoning is simple: players in contract years, like Bosa, often play at an elite level as they push for the best deals (12:49).

Betting Strategy Insights: New Coaches and Coordinators Affecting Performance (08:56)

One of the standout moments is Rivers' insight on how changes in coaching staff, particularly new coordinators, often negatively impact team performance. Drawing from previous trends, he argues that teams with new head coaches, quarterbacks, and coordinators struggle more than teams with consistency (09:16). Citing examples such as the Falcons and Patriots, Rivers explains that while individual talent matters, team cohesion is often a better predictor of success in the NFL.

This conversation is a lesson for bettors: while many focus on star players, factors like offensive line continuity and coaching changes play a huge role in determining season outcomes. Rivers emphasizes this further with his personal MVP pick of Josh Allen, whose stability within the Bills organization stands in stark contrast to teams with major offseason upheavals.

Long-Shot Picks for Coach of the Year and Comeback Player of the Year (13:07)

The conversation also ventures into some underdog territory, with Seidenberg throwing out Sean Payton as a dark horse candidate for Coach of the Year at 20-to-1 odds (14:14). Payton's return to coaching with the Denver Broncos comes with immense media attention and expectations. As Seidenberg notes, “Sean Payton is the type of old-school football guy that the writers love” (14:47), positioning him well for the award if the Broncos exceed expectations.

Mackenzie, on the other hand, suggests D’Amico Ryans at 14-to-1 odds for Coach of the Year. He sees potential in the Texans’ young squad, and if they outperform, Ryans could very well win the award (14:47).

In the Comeback Player of the Year category, the hosts agree that the award is Aaron Rodgers’ to lose (15:10). The narrative of Rodgers leading the Jets back to relevance is strong, and as Mackenzie notes, "Rodgers’ story is too good to ignore" (15:27). He returns to the NFL after a storied career, and if he can stay healthy and perform well, the award seems inevitable.

The Role of Data and Narrative in NFL Betting

What makes Straight Outta Vegas AM such a compelling podcast for bettors is the way it blends data with the broader narratives of the NFL. Rivers and Seidenberg both highlight how numbers tell part of the story but also stress the importance of understanding the human element—how players react to contract negotiations, new environments, and expectations.

For instance, the emphasis on Trent Williams’ return to the 49ers isn’t just about his individual skill—it’s about what he symbolizes for the team’s overall strength. Similarly, Josh Allen’s MVP candidacy isn’t solely based on his stats but also on his underdog narrative, which makes him a great value bet at 9-to-1 odds (10:18).

As listeners, we are reminded that while sharp analytics can give you an edge, understanding the context in which players and coaches operate is just as crucial. A balance between hard stats and soft narratives will often lead to more informed betting decisions.

Conclusion

In this episode of Straight Outta Vegas AM, Scott Seidenberg and Mackenzie Rivers bring deep insights into the upcoming NFL season. From MVP and Defensive Player of the Year picks to the intricacies of team dynamics, the hosts offer a blend of sharp analysis, statistical trends, and compelling narratives. Whether you're placing bets or simply want to better understand the league’s key storylines, this episode is a must-listen. As they highlight, the best way to gain an edge in betting is to stay informed, not just about individual players but also about the broader context that surrounds them.

Key Points

 Trent Williams' return: Essential for 49ers' success, causing a key line movement.

 MVP Picks: Jalen Hurts (12-to-1) and Josh Allen (9-to-1) discussed as strong contenders.

 Offensive Player of the Year: Long-shot bets like Garrett Wilson (30-to-1) offer high upside.

 Coaching Changes: A significant factor for team performance and betting strategy.

 Defensive Player of the Year: Nick Bosa and T.J. Watt stand out in this category.

 Betting Strategy: Rivers emphasizes how new coordinators and team cohesion affect team performance.

 Josh Allen for MVP: Rivers' favorite due to his dual-threat ability and strong narrative.

 Coach of the Year: Sean Payton and D'Amico Ryans are potential dark horse candidates.

 Comeback Player of the Year: Aaron Rodgers is the clear favorite to win this award.

 Betting Edge: The hosts offer a mix of statistical analysis and narrative-based insights to guide bettors.

Summary

1. Mackenzie Rivers and Scott Seidenberg dive into the NFL betting landscape, offering sharp insights and predictions for various awards.

2. Rivers emphasizes the importance of Trent Williams' return to the 49ers and how it impacted betting lines, moving the spread from 3.5 to 4.5 points.

3. The hosts debate potential MVP candidates, focusing on Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen, with both providing unique betting angles based on stats and narratives.

4. Rivers highlights Garrett Wilson as an Offensive Player of the Year candidate, seeing value in the 30-to-1 odds due to his connection with Aaron Rodgers.

5. They discuss the significance of team cohesion and coaching changes, noting how new head coaches and coordinators can affect season outcomes.

6. Mackenzie throws in a long-shot pick for Defensive Player of the Year, favoring Nick Bosa for a comeback season.

7. The conversation shifts to Coach of the Year, where Seidenberg highlights Sean Payton as a possible dark horse candidate at 20-to-1.

8. Aaron Rodgers is viewed as the likely Comeback Player of the Year winner, with Mackenzie noting his strong narrative.

9. Rivers explains how betting lines shift based on player returns and news, advising bettors to watch for these movements.

10. The episode concludes with practical tips for NFL betting, stressing a balance between data and narrative for better betting decisions.