The New England Patriots have named Jacoby Brissett as their Week 1 starting QB.

As we discussed yesterday, we should not be surprised, and we should especially not be surprised about not being surprised. With Brissett now named the starter, 16 out of the 17 favorites in these training camp QB battles over the last four years have ultimately been named the starter as expected.

The Patriots' QB decision was likely the closest call among the seven battles that had pre-training camp odds - especially after Patriots Head Coach Jerrod Mayo indicated that Drake Maye had outplayed Brissett in training camp. At the outset of training camp, Brissett was a -250 favorite to start Week 1, with the takeback on Maye to start at +190, meaning the market thought Brissett was around a 70% favorite to start.

With that uncertainty settled, the market has reacted, with the spread in the Patriots' Week 1 game against the Cincinnati Bengals seeing the most significant change.

The Bengals opened as 9.5-point favorites in May at Bookmaker, with the line hovering between 9.5 and 9 at most books throughout the summer. Yesterday, before the official announcement, the Bengals were favored by 9.5 points at Bookmaker as well as most sportsbooks, with some books even adding juice to the favorite, making the line ostensibly around 9.6 or 9.7. However, after the confirmation that Brissett would start Thursday morning, the line adjusted quickly, reflecting the market's increased confidence in having a veteran presence in a hostile Cincinnati environment.

Bookmaker, one of the largest books in the world and a bastion of sharp action, quickly moved from Cincinnati -9.5 early Thursday to -9 flat by 9:16 AM ET, just minutes after the announcement. Later in the morning, the line continued to move as bettors backed New England, knocking the spread down to Cincinnati -8.5 by 2 PM ET.

This shift highlights the market’s confidence in Brissett's experience, especially his ability to manage the game and avoid a catastrophe. Maybe the Patriots have no greater chance to pull the upset - but the market may think they are less likely to get blown out with a steady veteran presence. Despite Maye's flashes in training camp, Brissett's familiarity with the Patriots' system and his overall experience were likely significant factors in both the team's decision and the subsequent market reaction.

Now that all 7 favorites entering camp have been named the starter as expected, for bettors, the takeaway is clear: while there’s always a temptation to bet on the unexpected, the data suggests that sticking with the favorite is often the more reliable strategy, especially in these QB battles.