The Pittsburgh Steelers have officially named Russell Wilson as their starting quarterback for the 2024 season opener against the Atlanta Falcons, head coach Mike Tomlin announced today. This decision also marks yet another win for the favorites in the "QB to Start Week 1" odds market.
A look at the opening odds in this market reveals a consistent trend of favorites emerging victorious:
2024 Opening Odds in May for "QB to Start Week 1"
| Team |
Favorite to Start |
Top Competition |
Result |
| PIT Steelers |
Russell Wilson (-700) |
Justin Fields (+450) |
Favorite Cashes |
| NE Patriots |
Jacoby Brissett (-250) |
Drake Maye (+190) |
??? |
| MIN Vikings |
Sam Darnold (-140) |
JJ McCarthy (+115) |
Favorite Cashes, (Arguably decided by injury) |
| DEN Broncos |
Bo Nix (-425) |
Jarrett Stidham (+450) |
Favorite Cashes |
| LV Raiders |
Gardner Minshew (-200) |
Aiden O'Connell |
Favorite Cashes |
| NY Giants |
Daniel Jones (-425) |
Drew Lock (+275) |
Favorite Cashes |
| SEA Seahawks |
Geno Smith (-600) |
Sam Howell (+390) |
Favorite Cashes |
While the New England Patriots have yet to officially announce their Week 1 starter, if the favorite holds, this would bring the total to a 7-0 run in 2024 for favorites in this market. Even now, with 6-0 confirmed, it’s evident that the favorites have dominated this year.
A Historical Perspective: The Trend of Favorites Winning
These results shouldn't be surprising by now. Looking back over the past few seasons, we can see a clear pattern where the favorites in these markets consistently come through.
2023: Favorites went 3-0, with Baker Mayfield starting over Kyle Trask for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Anthony Richardson starting over Gardner Minshew for the Colts, and Mac Jones retaining his starting role over Bailey Zappe in New England.
2022: In Carolina, the thought was that Baker Mayfield was not signed to come off the bench, and he did in fact get the starter for the Panthers in Week 1, cashing as a -500 prop market favorite. It was a closer call in Seattle, but Geno Smith (-135) edged Drew Lock to get the Week 1 start as the post-Russell Wilson era began in Seattle. And Mitch Trubisky (-150) also edged out Mason Rudolph to start Week 1 for the Steelers as a small favorite. Again, the favorites went 3-0 in this market.
2021: Out of four marquee quarterback battles with odds, the favorites went 3-1. Andy Dalton (-500) started for the Bears over rookie Justin Fields (+300), the 49ers also opted for the veteran choice picking Jimmy Garoppolo (-280) over Trey Lance (+220), and Jameis Winston (-250) got the nod over Taysom Hill (+175) for the Saints.
The last time an underdog came through in this market was in 2021 when Mac Jones, as a +225 underdog, upset Cam Newton (-305) to start Week 1 for the New England Patriots.
Takeaway: Chalk Rules the Day
Over the last four years, the favorites in these "QB to Start Week 1" markets have gone 15-1. While these markets are often illiquid and low-limit—potentially enticing bettors to take a long shot and root for an upset—the fact remains that the upset rarely happens. More often than not, the market has a solid understanding entering training camp about who each team will select to lead them into battle to start their season.
Maybe not as fun as betting on chaos, but the recent results provide little reason to bet against chalk - with Russell Wilson being only the latest example.