What has really changed since NFL Division odds opened in March?

Most years, the biggest offseason shift in the NFL futures odds markets corresponds with a major quarterback changing teams—a la Aaron Rodgers to the Jets last year or Russell Wilson to the Broncos in 2022. However, in the 2024 offseason, the most glaring odds shift cannot be so easily pinned to a single transaction.

When the first NFL division odds opened in early March, the Dallas Cowboys were slight favorites to repeat as division champions at +110 odds, while the Eagles were posted at +135. However, over the last few months, slowly but surely, the Philadelphia Eagles have overtaken them, now being solidly favored at -125, with the Cowboys drifting up to +170 or even higher at some spots. Notably, these odds didn't shift significantly Monday even after Cowboys WR All-Pro, CeeDee Lamb signed a 4-year, $136M extension.  The lack of movement in the odds after Lamb signed indicates the market largely expected Lamb to remain in Dallas for 2024. 

Any odds shift begs two major questions: Why did it happen, and is it warranted?  If it wasn't so much Lamb uncertainty, what is the proximate cause to this reversal towards Philly and against Dallas?

The answer appears to primarily come down to sentiment. Neither team has made life-altering roster changes since the initial release of division odds. The Eagles made a mini-splash by signing Saquon Barkley in mid-March, but no RB move alone would be enough to justify this major of a shift. Philly also shored up their defense with key additions like C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Devin White. But is this enough to justify their new status as favorites?

The Offseason So Far

The Cowboys entered the offseason with a roster largely intact from their 2023 NFC East title-winning team. Their most newsworthy move was retaining Lamb. The Eagles, while active, haven't radically changed their team's outlook. Barkley adds another dimension to their already potent offense. However, the retirement of HOF Center Jason Kelce arguably represents a more significant loss for the Eagles than the addition of Barkley represents a gain.

On August 22nd, the Eagles traded for wide receiver Jahan Dotson, further solidifying their position as favorites. This trade came after the odds had already shifted in their favor and only continued their momentum, improving Philly's odds from -110 to win the East before the trade to between -120 and -150 afterward, depending on the sportsbook.

The betting market seems to agree that the Cowboys' lack of moves, with both head coach Mike McCarthy and quarterback Dak Prescott entering the final season of their contracts, forebodes a potential regression from their 12-5 record last season.

The Eagles' new coaching staff, featuring Kellen Moore as Offensive Coordinator and Vic Fangio as Defensive Coordinator, was already in place before the initial odds were set. However, instead of reacting immediately to this news, the current shift could indicate that the betting market is now fully processing these changes. The Eagles have long been considered to have an elite roster—even though they will miss their Hall of Fame Center, Jason Kelce, who retired. The Eagles entered the 2023 season as Co-NFC Favorites along with the San Francisco 49ers. Is the market simply giving Philly a mulligan for their underwhelming end to the 2023 season, where they lost 7 of their last 8 games? Was it really all the fault of the Eagles' outgoing one-and-done 2023 OC & DC? The betting market would seem to say so.

The market's confidence in the Eagles may reflect a broader sentiment that Philadelphia is better positioned for sustained success. But is that right? Only the Kansas City Chiefs have a better regular-season record than the Cowboys over the last three seasons—yet doubts around McCarthy and co. abound while Nick Sirianni's group has been given the benefit of the doubt. Eagles longtime GM, Howie Roseman has a well-deserved track record of consistent roster building, and inking long-term deals with key players like A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith earlier in the process contrasts with the drama that followed the Cowboys into camp, especially given the still remaining uncertainty surrounding Dak Prescott's contract situation.

The NFC East's Consistent Inconsistency

Another year—another instance to brush off one of the craziest trends in football: no team has repeated as NFC East Champion in nearly two decades, none in the last 19 seasons to be exact. This historical trend might make betting on last year's champion seem risky. If it's not exactly a scientific heuristic, this historical pattern must be weighing on at least some bettors' minds.

Despite the growing excitement about Philly and disappointment in Dallas, it's worth considering whether the market might be overzealous in its preference. The Cowboys still have the core that led them to last year's division title, and with Lamb locked in long-term, they may have a strong case to make to buck this trend and repeat as division champions.

In betting, often the most profitable position to take is the one that currently bucks the whims of the crowd.

However, we must consider whether the shift in odds really reflects a major shift in the betting market's opinion—or whether the initial odds were perhaps just very, very wrong. Bookmakers' initial odds arguably reflected the bias books have towards tilting toward 'America's team,' knowing their legions of fans will likely back them no matter what the exact price—like the Rich Texan in The Simpsons, Cowboys fans project as the opposite of price-sensitive. Maybe more accurate initial odds would have had the Cowboys tied with the Eagles for the division crown. The betting market correcting that initial mistake may have created momentum, and the odds shift could have become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Betting the Eagles at +130 may have been initially sharp, but followers came in afterward and kept betting Philly even after the good odds were long gone.