Bet the Baltimore Ravens to go UNDER their season Win Total of 10.5 at even money. Yes, we could have gotten a better number earlier in the summer, but let's not let hindsight get in the way of a profitable wager. The market has them overvalued, and a wealth of historical data backs this up.

Baltimore enters the 2024 season with high expectations, as expected for a team that was favored by 3.5 points over the now two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs in last January’s AFC Championship game. They’ve added big names like two-time All-Pro RB Derrick Henry and boast the reigning MVP, Lamar Jackson. But a closer look under the hood suggests this team may not live up to the hype. The under-discussed issues with their offensive and defensive lines, as well as significant coaching losses, raise serious concerns that the Ravens might be prime candidates for a major regression.

Offensive Line Continuity: A Deeper Dive

To evaluate offensive line continuity, we use a nuanced metric called Adjusted Offensive Lineman Retained (AOLR). This metric starts with the number of returning offensive linemen, as defined by Rotogrinders. According to their criteria, an offensive lineman is considered "retained" if the planned starters either started in Week 1 of the previous season or played more than 50% of the snaps for the team in that season.

We then refine this metric by adjusting for the loss of key positions. Specifically, we subtract 0.5 AOLR if a team loses its starting center—a crucial position for maintaining cohesion across the line and with their quarterback and play-caller. Additionally, we subtract another full point if the team loses a lineman who was ranked in the top 32 by Pro Football Focus (PFF), acknowledging that these standout players are critical to a team’s performance.

The nuances of offensive line continuity are often overlooked by both the broader football community and bettors, but examining them reveals powerful trends. Since 2016, there have been 27 teams that both had fewer than 2.5 adjusted offensive linemen retained and who also had a strong offensive line the previous season (defined by an average rank between pass block grade and run block grade better than 16.5). These have gone UNDER their win total in 25 of 27 seasons. On average, these teams underperform Vegas expectations by 2.3 wins. The trend has only gotten stronger in recent years, with 19 of the last 20 teams fitting this criterion falling under their win total by an average of 2.5 wins.

These teams typically see a notable drop in scoring, averaging 21.7 points per game following their major offensive line changes, down from 24.1 points per game the previous season—a 10% decrease. What’s striking is that despite this drop-off, the market often overlooks the risk, with these teams' win totals increasing slightly from an average of 8.74 wins the previous season to 8.94 wins expected during the year immediately following their major offensive line changes. This mismatch between market expectations and observed outcomes underscores the critical role a stable offensive line plays, especially given the reduced practice time available under the CBA changes of 2012, making it harder for new offensive lines to gel quickly.

Offensive Line Mega-Trend

The Ravens are a perfect match for the logic behind this mega-trend. After bullying the league for most of last year, the salary cap has caught up with the Ravens, and their offensive line has undergone a significant transformation, with three starters, including Kevin Zeitler, departing. Zeitler’s exit is particularly impactful, as he was one of the top 32 offensive linemen by PFF grading, making his loss doubly significant in our AOLR metric. To throw another stat at you on top of their 10% scoring drop-off, the average team fitting this trend ends the following season ranked 20th in offensive DVOA. Will the Ravens win 11 games if their offense is in the bottom third of the league?

While some might dismiss the impact of offensive line turnover, believing that Lamar Jackson’s dynamic play can mitigate these losses, the evidence suggests otherwise. Teams in this situation historically struggle to reproduce their previous season’s offensive performance. The Ravens, who had above-average blocking grades in both pass and run protection last year, are especially vulnerable to regression. And with Jackson 15 lbs lighter—with worse protection in front of him—the chances of a Jackson injury rise, further adding value to our proposition.

More Turnover

On the defensive side, the Ravens face further challenges. The loss of key players like Patrick Queen, Jadeveon Clowney, and Geno Stone, combined with the departure of defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald to Seattle, raises questions about the defense’s ability to maintain its high level of play. Justin Madubuike’s 13-sack season in 2023 was impressive, but without Macdonald’s simulated pressure schemes, replicating that success seems unlikely.

Final Word

The Ravens are in the toughest division in football, and their offseason moves, while attention-grabbing, may have been a major step backward. The offensive line may prove a glaring weakness, and history suggests that teams with similar turnover struggle mightily.

And it might not even be the offensive line that struggles. The one team that fit this criterion last year was the Kansas City Chiefs—and you may be thinking, wait a minute, they won the Super Bowl! Yes, they did—but not before falling a 1/2 game under their win total. And while their offensive line was not their weak link, their paltry receiving corps' performance over the course of the season was. Arguably, the amount of work necessary to improve their offensive line after massive turnover left less time and resources for the coaching staff to get their receiving corps in order and firing on all cylinders.

Given these challenges, betting the under on 10.5 wins at even money (DraftKings) is the move. And by the way—in the hyper-competitive AFC North, someone has to rise to the top. If you read my forum post yesterday, you know I'm not optimistic about the Steelers either. And since I'm lukewarm on the Browns, I have to say I find the Cincinnati Bengals' chances to emerge as the division champions quite appealing.