2024 Pittsburgh Steelers Team Preview - Betting Prediction
Setting the Stage: Steelers Poised for a New Era in 2024
The Pittsburgh Steelers did it again in 2023, posting a winning record of 10-7, marking their 20th consecutive season without a losing record, including all 17 under the leadership of head coach Mike Tomlin. However, after an offseason of significant changes, the Steelers face an uphill battle to keep the streak going in 2024. Vegas projects the Steelers to win Over/Under 8 games, making the 2024 season only the third time (along with 2022 and 2004) during this streak that Vegas has projected the Steelers to win under 50% of their games. Placed in the toughest division in football, the Steelers hope they can buck Vegas expectations and use the acquisitions of veteran quarterback Russell Wilson or the potential emergence of young talent Justin Fields to reward the Steeler faithful with the 21st year of winning football.
After two disappointing seasons in Denver, Wilson, a Super Bowl champion with a regular season record of 113-72-1, brings a wealth of experience and leadership to the team. His arrival signals a shift in the Steelers' offensive philosophy, as they look to capitalize on his ability to extend plays and make dynamic throws downfield. The Steelers also parted ways with often-criticized offensive coordinator Matt Canada, who was fired after Week 11 of the 2023 season. The addition of offensive coordinator Arthur Smith further bolsters the team's offensive potential, as he brings a track record of success in maximizing the talents of his quarterbacks as counter-points to rush-based attacks.
Meanwhile, the development of Justin Fields adds an intriguing dimension to the Steelers' quarterback room. Fields, a former first-round pick, possesses a unique skill set that could provide the team with a dynamic dual-threat option. The competition between Wilson and Fields during training camp will be a key storyline to watch, as both players vie for the starting role. Offshore betting markets give Wilson a ~90% chance to start Week 1 at -1000 odds, with Fields at +550 to start the opener. However, regardless if he is initially the starter, this could change if Wilson gets off to a bad start.
The Steelers' offense will hope to benefit from the continued growth of their young playmakers. Wide receiver George Pickens, who led the NFL in yards per reception at 18.1 yards per catch, and tight end Pat Freiermuth have had flashes of brilliance. The running back tandem of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren provides a potent one-two punch in the backfield, with Warren's versatility as a receiver adding another dimension to the offense.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Steelers remain anchored by their star players. T.J. Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and Cameron Heyward continue to be the pillars of the defense, while the additions of linebacker Patrick Queen and cornerback Donte Jackson bring fresh talent to the unit.
Based on Vegas win totals, the Steelers have the hardest schedule in the NFL for the 2024 season. The AFC North remains one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL, with the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, and Cleveland Browns boasting formidable rosters. The Steelers will face a challenging schedule, with marquee matchups against the likes of the Kansas City Chiefs on Christmas Day.
As the Steelers embark on the 2024 season, they find themselves at a crossroads. The team's performance this year will go a long way in determining the future direction of the franchise and the legacy of Russell Wilson. With a mix of veteran leadership, young talent, and a proven head coach in Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are poised to make a statement in the AFC and potentially return to the upper echelon of the NFL.
The Betting Landscape
The Vegas betting market expects the 2024 Steelers to have their first losing season during the tenure of head coach Mike Tomlin in the highly competitive AFC North. The offseason acquisition of veteran quarterback Russell Wilson has generated some excitement among Steelers fans, but the betting market remains somewhat skeptical about Pittsburgh's chances of making a deep playoff run.
PIT Steelers Super Bowl Odds: 50/1, T-18th favorite
The Steelers' Super Bowl odds of 50/1 are in the same range as last season, despite the team being expected to win fewer games compared to last year (O/U 8 this year vs. O/U 9 last year). This variation could be attributed to the market anticipating a wider range of outcomes given the possibility that Wilson returns to a form somewhat close to his best days when he was a Super Bowl contender in Seattle. The Steelers are in the same odds range as fellow AFC teams like the Jaguars, Browns, and Chargers, who also reside in the 50-60/1 range.
The Steelers' win total for the 2024 season is set Over/Under 8, with the vigorish shaded to the Over at -130. This implies a win total of O/U ~8.2 wins, and an implied win percentage of 48% (8.2/17) suggesting that oddsmakers view the Steelers as a team likely to finish with a record slightly below .500. This projected win total marks the second-lowest Vegas projection for the Steelers in the Tomlin era, with only the 2022 season being worse at around ~7.6 wins out of 17 games.
PIT Steelers Win Total:
Over 8 (-130)
Under 8 (+110)
When it comes to playoff odds, the Steelers face an uphill battle. Despite making the playoffs in 11 of Tomlin's 17 seasons with the team, including last year, the betting market is less optimistic about their chances in 2024.
Will the Steelers Make the Playoffs?
Yes: +185 (32% chance to make the playoffs)
No: -235 (68% chance to miss the playoffs)
The AFC North is expected to be a highly competitive division in 2024, with the Steelers facing tough competition from their rivals. After winning the division in six of Tomlin's first 11 seasons, the Steelers have only captured the AFC North crown once in the last six years (2020), and oddsmakers see them as longshots to reclaim the title in 2024, giving them only about a 10% chance to stand on top of the heap by the end of the season.
AFC North Division Odds:
BAL Ravens: +140 (~39%)
CIN Bengals: +145 (~38%)
CLE Browns: +600 (~13%)
PIT Steelers: +800 (~10%)
The betting landscape for the Steelers in 2024 reflects a team in transition. While the addition of Russell Wilson brings a level of intrigue and potential, questions remain about the overall talent on the roster and the team's ability to compete in a tough division. Bettors and oddsmakers alike seem to be taking a wait-and-see approach with the Steelers, acknowledging Tomlin's coaching prowess and Wilson's potential return to form but remaining cautious about their chances of making a significant leap forward in the upcoming season.
Week 1 Showdown: Pittsburgh Steelers @ the Atlanta Falcons
The Pittsburgh Steelers kick off their 2024 season on the road against the Atlanta Falcons. Initially opening as 3-point underdogs in May, heavy betting on Pittsburgh has shifted the line to +2.5, with some books even offering a smaller spread. The notable offshore odds provider Bookmaker currently has the smallest spread on the board, offering Pittsburgh only as a +1.5-point road underdog. The total for the game is set at Over/Under 43.
This game will be a revenge game for Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, who will be matched up against his former team, the Falcons, who fired him after three consecutive 7-10 seasons. Smith will be looking to prove a point against his former employer and show that he can lead the Steelers' offense to success.
Head coach Mike Tomlin has a mixed record in Week 1 games, with a career record of 10-6-1 SU. His teams have underperformed against the spread, with an ATS record of 7-10 (-1.2 average ATS margin) in season debuts.
The Steelers will likely be led by veteran quarterback Russell Wilson, who was acquired in the offseason. Wilson has a record of 6-6 SU in Week 1 in 12 seasons with Seattle and Denver. He has also struggled against the spread, with an ATS record of 4-7. Notably, Wilson lost both of his Week 1 games with Denver despite being favored both times by the score of 17-16. This will mark the first time since 2018 that Wilson has opened Week 1 as an underdog, provided he is in fact the Steelers' starter.
The Falcons, on the other hand, are coming off a disappointing 7-10 season and will be looking to start fresh under new head coach Raheem Morris. The Falcons have a young and talented roster, led by free agent acquisition, QB Kirk Cousins and a bevy of young weapons including tight end Kyle Pitts (#4 pick in 2021 draft), WR Drake London (#8 pick in 2022) and RB Bijan Robinson (#8 in 2023). They will be looking to establish themselves as a force in the NFC South, where they are currently -120 division favorites.
Despite the line moving toward the Steelers, the Falcons maintain an implied win probability of 56%, highlighted by their status as -140 moneyline favorites. This leaves the takeback on the Steelers at +120, suggesting the Falcons are still favored but the gap is closer than oddsmakers initially projected.
Both offenses will be under the microscope in this game. The Steelers ranked 18th in scoring last season and will be looking to improve under the leadership of Wilson and Smith. The Falcons, meanwhile, ranked 24th in scoring and will be looking to take a step forward with Cousins at the helm.
As Week 1 approaches, the stage is set for an intriguing matchup between the Steelers and the Falcons. With both teams looking to start strong and establish themselves as contenders in their respective divisions, this game could set the tone for the rest of the season. The betting market suggests a close contest, with the Falcons slightly favored but the Steelers gaining momentum. It will be up to Wilson and the Steelers' offense to prove they can overcome their Week 1 struggles and start the season on a high note.
Player Spotlights
Russell Wilson (QB)
Over/Under 2750.5 Passing Yards
Russell Wilson is set to be the Week 1 starter for the Steelers, with BetOnline listing him as a -1000 favorite. However, there's speculation that Justin Fields, given a +550 chance to start, could take over by season's end. Wilson’s passing yards prop of 2750.5 reflects this uncertainty. His deep-ball prowess is expected to align well with Pittsburgh’s offensive strategy, but the possibility of a mid-season switch looms.
Najee Harris (RB)
Over/U nder 800.5 Rushing Yards
Najee Harris's rushing yards prop for 2024 is set at 800.5 yards, 100 yards lower than last year. This reflects expectations that Jaylen Warren, with an Over/Under of 600.5 yards, will either complement Harris or potentially take over as the lead back. Harris’s ability to maintain his lead role in the backfield will be crucial for the Steelers’ ground game.
George Pickens (WR)
Over/Under 975.5 Receiving Yards
George Pickens, who led the NFL in yards per catch last season with 18.1, has an Over/Under of 975.5 receiving yards for 2024. With Wilson’s affinity for deep passes, Pickens is expected to have a big season. His performance will be pivotal for Pittsburgh’s aerial attack, especially as he enters his third year and aims to solidify his role as a key downfield threat.
T.J. Watt (OLB)
+450 to be Sack Leader (favorite)
+750 to win Defensive Player of the Year (3rd favorite)
T.J. Watt is poised for another dominant season, entering as the favorite to lead the league in sacks at +450 and the third favorite for Defensive Player of the Year at +750. Watt's impact on the Steelers' defense cannot be overstated; his ability to disrupt opposing offenses and rack up sacks will be critical for Pittsburgh's success. A healthy and productive Watt could very well tilt the balance in many games for the Steelers.
The performances of Wilson, Harris, Pickens, and Watt will be instrumental in shaping the Steelers' 2024 season. With a rebuilt offensive line and high expectations, these players' contributions will be critical to Pittsburgh's success on the field and their standing in the betting market.
Offseason Chess Moves
The Pittsburgh Steelers have blended continuity with strategic enhancements for the 2024 season. Head Coach Mike Tomlin, now in his 18th year, remains at the helm, providing stability to the team. The addition of Offensive Coordinator Arthur Smith marks a significant shift towards a run-heavy, play-action offense aimed at protecting the quarterback and boosting efficiency.
The acquisition of Russell Wilson is a pivotal move for the Steelers. Wilson, coming off a challenging stint with the Denver Broncos, aims to revive his career under Smith’s guidance. Smith’s system previously turned Ryan Tannehill into the NFL's highest-graded passer in 2019, utilizing a strong running game and effective play-action passes. This approach is designed to protect Wilson and enhance his performance. However, if Wilson struggles, Justin Fields serves as a solid contingency plan. Fields fits well into Smith's offense, which has historically featured mobile quarterbacks like Marcus Mariota and Tannehill, providing the Steelers with a dynamic alternative.
Improving the offensive line has been a priority for the Steelers. The team signed guard Isaac Seumalo and drafted Broderick Jones to bolster the line, which is crucial for the run-heavy scheme. This strengthened line is expected to significantly support running backs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, enabling a more effective ground game.
The Steelers also made several key moves in the draft and free agency to enhance their roster. Drafting Broderick Jones in the first round is expected to make an immediate impact, especially in run blocking. The signing of Isaac Seumalo strengthens the interior line, complementing last year’s acquisition of James Daniels. Additionally, drafting Zach Frazier addresses the center position, and Troy Fautanu provides depth and potential starting talent at right tackle.
These offseason moves reflect a strategic approach to blend stability with critical enhancements. By focusing on improving the offensive line and integrating a quarterback-friendly system under Arthur Smith, the Steelers are poised to revitalize their offense. This combination aims to protect the quarterback, enhance the running game, and create explosive play-action opportunities, setting the stage for a potentially successful 2024 season. The changes made during the offseason are designed to position the Steelers as a competitive force in the AFC North, with the ability to adapt and integrate these new elements being pivotal in reestablishing themselves as a formidable con