AFC East outlooks
Buffalo Bills
The Bills have spent the last three years delivering essentially top-five seasons on both sides of the ball, and while the defense still looks poised to be among the league's best, the offense may have some trouble scoring points with a passing attack that is replacing 152 catches, 1,929 receiving yards and 15 touchdowns from its top two wideouts with a Round 2 receiver that was not widely considered a first-round talent and a complementary receiver in Curtis Samuel who's only topped 700 receiving yards once in eight seasons. Combined with what looks like a very tough schedule on paper, I'd only consider fade plays on the Bills, and I may sprinkle a little on them missing the playoffs at +150.

Miami Dolphins
Offense rules this era of pro football, and it's hard to fade a team with an offense as elite as Miami's. I also came out of my dive into the depth chart more positive on the defense than I expected. However, the schedule has the potential to be an obstacle too big to overcome, not just in terms of the opponents they'll face but also the rest and travel disadvantages at play in key spots. The Dolphins consistently rank as having the best home-field advantage in my research every year, so I'll still look for value spots to take advantage of them at home while looking to fade on the road, but I don't expect to get involved in their futures with only a slight lean toward Under 9.5 wins.

New England Patriots
Facing a schedule where my power ratings wouldn't make them even within a field goal in any matchup, the Patriots are only going to be a team I consider playing Under 4.5 wins, even though just a little has to go right to get them over that total. If that happens, it's likely going to be due to the offense not being as terrible as it was last year, giving the defense a better chance to reach elite status and pull this team to a few more low-scoring wins than expected as Drake Maye develops and reliable passing-game weapons hopefully emerge. I'll likely be looking to play Unders in Patriots games more often than not this season if the offense gives us some reason for hope over the first few weeks.

New York Jets
The Jets lost last year after just a few snaps when Aaron Rodgers went down with what ended up being a season-ending injury (despite the drama surrounding a potential return) and had a weak backup plan to replace him. This year they have veteran Tyrod Taylor, who is certainly capable of being a game manager, and that may be all this team needs not just to make the playoffs but win a division in which the Bills offense and Dolphins defense has the potential to take a step back. All that is to say the Aaron Rodgers of old would make this an elite team that deserves to be in the conversation for Super Bowl favorite status, and even a solid Rodgers season gives the Jets, along with a reasonably easy schedule, a good shot at winning 10-plus games and making the playoffs. I like playing the Jets to win the division at +200 or better, as I'd rather take a big swing with this roster providing a 12- or 13-win season rather than just backing Over 9.5 wins. A related sprinkle would be +850 to be the AFC No. 1 seed at DraftKings or, even better, +1400 to have the most wins.

NFC East outlooks
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys have been top five in point differential for three straight seasons, but there are enough personnel losses, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, that when combined with the departure of Dan Quinn we could see this team fade a bit. The schedule features a mix of matchups they should be heavily favored to win or that pit the Cowboys against many of the league's top teams. It's hard to see this being any worse than a nine-win team if it avoids a major injury to a key player, but I'm not sure the upside is there of years past either, so I'll be avoiding this team in futures betting.

New York Giants
The Giants won six games last year and made some key adjustments in the offense that along with better health could lead to an increase in performance this season. But there are also several factors working against them, including an offensive line that needs a lot of work, a secondary that could be among the league's worst and a schedule stacked with a lot of tough matchups where the Giants will have to steal a few wins to have a successful season. Their win total is too low for me to take the Under, but there are enough red flags here that I'll also avoid positive futures plays. However, if the offensive line looks to be coming together under new tutelage, then this may be a team to back on its Overs in game totals early in the year before the market catches up.

Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles seemed like a lock to get over 11.5 wins last year after a 10-1 start, but it all fell apart thanks to a run of tough opponents and then a complete collapse by the defense at the end of the year. Coaching upgrades should help return this team to prominence, and while there are various peccadilloes with the schedule, it doesn't look like getting back to 11 wins this year should be too difficult. I like playing the Over on 10.5 wins but think you might be able to get more value during the season due to the schedule being backloaded with home games, and I'll probably make a Super Bowl play at +1700 as well.

Washington Commanders
There are certainly reasons to be hopeful about the future for the Commanders with a franchise QB in place, a fresh start at coach and upgraded talent on both sides of the ball. The question is how quickly it's all going to come together, and the state of Washington at the end of last year suggests it's going to be more than a one-season project to make them a playoff contender. I'm a lean toward Under 6.5 wins for Washington, but I think there will be potential matchups where their offensive and defensive fronts could give them a hidden edge at stealing a win or two.

NFC North outlooks
Chicago Bears
After digging into the Bears, I'm second-guessing my decision to give them an average power rating to start the year and think maybe they should be slightly below that level. Caleb Williams has a lot of potential, but who knows if the offensive line will be a problem for him like it has for so many rookie QBs in the past. The defense played at probably an unsustainable level in the second half last year, and there are new coaches on both sides of the ball that returning players will have to adjust to as schemes and directives change. The schedule looks front-loaded with easier matchups, but that's also the time when the team may be trying to find its footing with a rookie QB and new coordinators. I'm probably going to be on the Bears going Under their win total, but I'm more likely to fade them as a playoff team at around even odds in Year 1 of the Caleb Williams era.

Detroit Lions
I didn't expect to be taking a side on the Lions at the start of this process, but I'm beginning to really like the potential this team has this year. The defense looks a lot better, particularly up front with the proven D.J. Reader and Marcus Davenport joining Aidan Hutchinson and Alim McNeal to form potentially one of the best defensive lines in football. Ben Johnson is still in place to run a top-five offense with probably the best O-line in football as well. The schedule doesn't look as bad as I thought it would, and I could see this team starting 7-0, splitting games in Green Bay and Houston, then beating their win total by the time Week 15 is over. I expect that I'll be on Over 10.5 wins as well as a sprinkle on them winning the NFC at +600 or better.

Green Bay Packers
I think it's full steam ahead for backing the Packers this season. The schedule sets up very well, Jordan Love played like a top-10 quarterback for a lot of last year, and key draft picks in the first two rounds along with the change at defensive coordinator elevates the potential on both sides of the ball. Matt LaFleur improved his team by a win last year when expectations were low after the departure of Aaron Rodgers, and this version seems better set up for success. I'm grabbing either Over 9.5 wins, Packers make the playoffs, or both, and I'm going to consider a win NFC bet as well.

Minnesota Vikings
The bones of a good team appear to be in place for the Vikings, with elite talent at wide receiver, offensive tackle and potentially edge rusher. Those are three positions that have long been a key focus of building an NFL team once you have a quarterback in place, which the Vikings make sure they did with a small trade up for J.J. McCarthy. His performance could dictate how the Vikings futures bets play out, but with their rough early schedule I'm not looking to back them on positive plays. If McCarthy seems like he's struggling in training camp, I may be on the Vikings Under 6.5 (or ideally 7) wins.

AFC South outlooks
Houston Texans
I don't really like to make positive plays on teams that see a massive jump in wins the previous year, because progression is rarely linear and those teams often have to handle tougher schedules with less going right in terms of injury luck, turnovers, etc. What should help is that the Texans play on Thursday and Monday only once each, which should help keep them in routine for most of the year before the Christmas swing of a Saturday-Wednesday pair of games, and their excellent edge rush talent could give them an edge in otherwise tough road matchups against teams like the Chiefs, Jets and Cowboys. I believe in this coaching staff, so I'm going to avoid my typical fade plays I would do with this sort of team. And if they can get a win in Indy in Week 1, I may try to grab the Over on 9.5 wins if it remains available.

Indianapolis Colts
I thought I was going to be all over the Colts as a positive play this year, likely backing them to make the playoffs or at least taking them Over 8.5 wins. But the schedule combined with the defense mostly being left alone is giving me pause, and I'm unlikely to make any plays in the market aside from potentially a conference title or Super Bowl sprinkle just in case the Shane Steichen-Anthony Richardson pairing reaches elite status. Most likely I'll be playing Overs in Colts games this year, though the totals in their first three games are all already 47 or higher.

Jacksonville Jaguars
I'm torn on what to do with the Jaguars. On one hand, I think they're probably a little bit underrated after being overrated last season, when I was on Under 9.5 wins facing a difficult schedule and was surprised they almost got to 10 anyway. On the other, the schedule again looks tough, as while they will get to avoid teams like the Chiefs, 49ers and Ravens this year, there aren't many pushovers outside of the division. This is going to be a wait-and-see team with road matchups against the Dolphins, Bills and Texans in the first four weeks, and they make it through the NFC heavy part of their schedule that follows their annual trip to London, they may be a play-on team later in the season.

Tennessee Titans
There are reasons to be excited about the Titans offense with the changes on the coaching staff combined with an influx of talent at receiver and on the offensive line. But there are also questions about the defense combined with the reality of a tough schedule over the first half of the season when the team will be trying to establish its footing in the new schemes. I wouldn't be that shocked if Tennessee started 0-7, and they're the second favorite to be the last remaining winless team at FanDuel behind the Patriots, whom they host for their eighth game. If I'm looking at anything, it's going to be Under 6.5 wins at -130.

NFC South outlooks
Atlanta Falcons
The instinct is to make positive plays on the Falcons considering their very easy strength of schedule, but I think I'm on board with the model in making this team a fade. I'm just not confident in the health of Kirk Cousins, who is used to putting up good stats for teams that finish around .500. With the questionable defense Atlanta has in place, and with Cousins entering a new offense (albeit one with the same roots as the scheme he just left in Minnesota) having to work back from a serious injury this offseason, I'm not going to project what would be only the third double-digit win season of his career. I'll be on the Falcons miss playoffs bet, ideally at +220 or better.

Carolina Panthers
I'm likely going to bet on a positive outcome for the Panthers. I like what they've done on the offensive side of the ball this offseason, building a unit that's much stronger top to bottom than the one that Bryce Young had to deal with in his rookie year. If Dave Canales and Co. have the coaching chops to help him progress, this could be a team with at least average play on both sides of the ball, and that could be enough to squeeze out a divisional title. I'll likely make a play on Over 5.5 wins but I definitely want to have a sprinkle on winning the division, as this feels eerily similar to last year where the NFC South had the team everyone wrote off take home the crown.

New Orleans Saints
I feel like this Saints team is probably being mispriced because it's hard to get excited for a group led by Dennis Allen and Derek Carr. Carr's numbers were fine last year and he could benefit from what could be a big upgrade at OC with Klint Kubiak coming from San Francisco. The defense has top-10 potential again, and considering how easy the schedule looks, that should keep the team in most games eve if the offense isn't firing on all cylinders. This feels like a 8-10 win team that's being like it's a tier below. My preference is probably going to be playing Over 7.5 wins, but I'll think more about whether to dive in on a make playoffs bet.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs are basically running it back with the team that went 9-8, won the division title and throttled the Eagles in the wild-card round last year, but that team struggled to run the ball or defend the pass and lost several key names on the defensive side of the ball. With a tough schedule in place, this could be the year the Bucs make the slide down the standings people expected last year. While our model likes them to make the playoffs and outperform expectations, I'll be on their Under at 8.5 wins if I'm making a play.

AFC West outlooks
Denver Broncos
Maybe I'm seeing what I want to see when I dig into the Broncos, but what was a bad team last year that somehow won eight games (but was a 7-10 team based on points scored and allowed) looks much worse heading into 2024. The Broncos started slow under Sean Payton last year, going 1-5 SU and 0-5-1 ATS, and that was with a veteran QB at the helm. I'll be on the Broncos Under 5.5 or 6 wins this year at the best price I can find, and I also plan to sprinkle a bit on a worst-case scenario. At DraftKings the Broncos are +650 to have the fewest wins, but I may look toward the last winless team market instead, as they have the sixth shortest odds (+1400) at FanDuel.

Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City offense was surprisingly average last year, performing like a midrange unit rather than one with one of the best quarterbacks of all-time at the helm. That led to them falling short of their win total of 11.5 as they scored no more than 20 points in any of their losses. I'd expect with Patrick Mahomes and Co. that it won't be a long-term issue, and if the Chiefs offense can return to top-five status and the defense can stave off regression, finishing Over 11.5 wins seems likely. I may look to play the Chiefs to win the AFC at +350 or better with the notion that even if they're sluggish during a season that features a topsy-turvy schedule of playing six days of the week, they should turn it on for the postseason, but the question is whether we'll get an even better number during a potential midseason lull. That probably makes the Chiefs a team to wait to attack in the futures market until the odds provide more value.

Las Vegas Raiders
The schedule and what could be an underrated defense are likely going to be enough to steer me away from making a play on the Under when it comes to the Raiders win total, but I don't see enough on the offensive side of the ball to be too optimistic they can make a playoff run either. Watch how the offensive line in particular looks over the first three weeks to get a clue about the upside this team could possess, but even if the defense turns into a top-five unit it's hard to imagine them overcoming a very tough road schedule that includes the Chiefs, Ravens, Bengals, Dolphins and Rams.

Los Angeles Chargers
While I think there's enough talent on the roster for Jim Harbaugh to put together an above-average defense immediately, and while the team has a franchise QB in place in Justin Herbert, my futures play on this team is likely going to be on them to miss the playoffs at around -110. It's a tough conference that featured 10 teams with winning records last year, and the schedule doesn't do them any favors with how many games of rest disparity they face. For those willing to wait, the value on the miss playoffs bet should be much better after matchups against the Raiders and Panthers the first two weeks of the season.

NFC West outlooks
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals look like a team that is going to explode for big offensive production some weeks in the right offense, but the overall potential of the team will likely be held back by the defense, unless head coach Jonathan Gannon is able to scheme around deficiencies and elevate the unit beyond the sum of its parts. A tough early schedule may have me looking to play the Under on 7 wins, but my betting strategy for the Cardinals otherwise should focus around playing game total Overs, though the books themselves are anticipating high-scoring games for Arizona out the gate with their first three totals posted at 48.5 or higher.

Los Angeles Rams
The Rams offense looks excellent, with Puka Nacua emerging as an elite weapon at receiver to give Matthew Stafford a stellar 1-2 punch. The O-line outperformed expectations last year and will hope that carries over. The defense is the major question mark with Aaron Donald stepping away, but there looks to be enough talent to make the unit competitive, and the promotion of Chris Shula to defensive coordinator should help with continuity for a very young front seven. This looks like a 10-win team to me and I like playing Over 8.5 wins at a good price, while I may decide to sprinkle a bit on a Super Bowl run and take them to win the NFC as well.

San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are a well-coached team with one of the best rosters in football, and that was good enough to go just 12-5 last year. The schedule is so brutal in terms of rest disparity that I find it hard to back their Over at 11.5, a number where everything has to go right for a team to beat. But the team is so good that I can't really play the Under. Even if the schedule costs the 49ers the No. 1 seed, the most likely destinations for a potential NFC Championship game are teams in domes (Detroit, Dallas, Atlanta?), negating the potential weather factor that could otherwise be a concern for this squad. I wouldn't bet their division/NFC/Super Bowl futures now, but there's probably going to be opportunities to lock them in at good value during a rough part of the season for those paying attention.

Seattle Seahawks
The rough schedule is enough to steer me away from making positive plays on the Seahawks in 2024, as it's going to be pretty rough sledding after the first two weeks in terms of both opposition and rest disparity. The best strategy is likely going to be tackling the game total Unders throughout the season, including the first two weeks when they face rookie QBs leading bad offenses. Those numbers are currently 42.5, but I wouldn't be surprised if both games finish shy of 40.

The above was posted on SL. Hope you all enjoy the read.

Add any thoughts that you may have, share them. Cheers!

NFL Capper said:

AFC West outlooks
Denver Broncos
Maybe I'm seeing what I want to see when I dig into the Broncos, but what was a bad team last year that somehow won eight games (but was a 7-10 team based on points scored and allowed) looks much worse heading into 2024. The Broncos started slow under Sean Payton last year, going 1-5 SU and 0-5-1 ATS, and that was with a veteran QB at the helm. I'll be on the Broncos Under 5.5 or 6 wins this year at the best price I can find, and I also plan to sprinkle a bit on a worst-case scenario. At DraftKings the Broncos are +650 to have the fewest wins, but I may look toward the last winless team market instead, as they have the sixth shortest odds (+1400) at FanDuel.

Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City offense was surprisingly average last year, performing like a midrange unit rather than one with one of the best quarterbacks of all-time at the helm. That led to them falling short of their win total of 11.5 as they scored no more than 20 points in any of their losses. I'd expect with Patrick Mahomes and Co. that it won't be a long-term issue, and if the Chiefs offense can return to top-five status and the defense can stave off regression, finishing Over 11.5 wins seems likely. I may look to play the Chiefs to win the AFC at +350 or better with the notion that even if they're sluggish during a season that features a topsy-turvy schedule of playing six days of the week, they should turn it on for the postseason, but the question is whether we'll get an even better number during a potential midseason lull. That probably makes the Chiefs a team to wait to attack in the futures market until the odds provide more value.

Las Vegas Raiders
The schedule and what could be an underrated defense are likely going to be enough to steer me away from making a play on the Under when it comes to the Raiders win total, but I don't see enough on the offensive side of the ball to be too optimistic they can make a playoff run either. Watch how the offensive line in particular looks over the first three weeks to get a clue about the upside this team could possess, but even if the defense turns into a top-five unit it's hard to imagine them overcoming a very tough road schedule that includes the Chiefs, Ravens, Bengals, Dolphins and Rams.

Los Angeles Chargers
While I think there's enough talent on the roster for Jim Harbaugh to put together an above-average defense immediately, and while the team has a franchise QB in place in Justin Herbert, my futures play on this team is likely going to be on them to miss the playoffs at around -110. It's a tough conference that featured 10 teams with winning records last year, and the schedule doesn't do them any favors with how many games of rest disparity they face. For those willing to wait, the value on the miss playoffs bet should be much better after matchups against the Raiders and Panthers the first two weeks of the season.

I’ve got over 6.5 wins Raiderzzz…AOC underrated imo…we’ll see 

Barney said:

NFL Capper said:

AFC West outlooks
Denver Broncos
Maybe I'm seeing what I want to see when I dig into the Broncos, but what was a bad team last year that somehow won eight games (but was a 7-10 team based on points scored and allowed) looks much worse heading into 2024. The Broncos started slow under Sean Payton last year, going 1-5 SU and 0-5-1 ATS, and that was with a veteran QB at the helm. I'll be on the Broncos Under 5.5 or 6 wins this year at the best price I can find, and I also plan to sprinkle a bit on a worst-case scenario. At DraftKings the Broncos are +650 to have the fewest wins, but I may look toward the last winless team market instead, as they have the sixth shortest odds (+1400) at FanDuel.

Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City offense was surprisingly average last year, performing like a midrange unit rather than one with one of the best quarterbacks of all-time at the helm. That led to them falling short of their win total of 11.5 as they scored no more than 20 points in any of their losses. I'd expect with Patrick Mahomes and Co. that it won't be a long-term issue, and if the Chiefs offense can return to top-five status and the defense can stave off regression, finishing Over 11.5 wins seems likely. I may look to play the Chiefs to win the AFC at +350 or better with the notion that even if they're sluggish during a season that features a topsy-turvy schedule of playing six days of the week, they should turn it on for the postseason, but the question is whether we'll get an even better number during a potential midseason lull. That probably makes the Chiefs a team to wait to attack in the futures market until the odds provide more value.

Las Vegas Raiders
The schedule and what could be an underrated defense are likely going to be enough to steer me away from making a play on the Under when it comes to the Raiders win total, but I don't see enough on the offensive side of the ball to be too optimistic they can make a playoff run either. Watch how the offensive line in particular looks over the first three weeks to get a clue about the upside this team could possess, but even if the defense turns into a top-five unit it's hard to imagine them overcoming a very tough road schedule that includes the Chiefs, Ravens, Bengals, Dolphins and Rams.

Los Angeles Chargers
While I think there's enough talent on the roster for Jim Harbaugh to put together an above-average defense immediately, and while the team has a franchise QB in place in Justin Herbert, my futures play on this team is likely going to be on them to miss the playoffs at around -110. It's a tough conference that featured 10 teams with winning records last year, and the schedule doesn't do them any favors with how many games of rest disparity they face. For those willing to wait, the value on the miss playoffs bet should be much better after matchups against the Raiders and Panthers the first two weeks of the season.

I’ve got over 6.5 wins Raiderzzz…AOC underrated imo…we’ll see 

They have a good shot at going over the 6.5 if they can steal at least one game in that tough 5 road games. If I were to pick two to steal, it would be the Chiefs and the Rams (ATS) I like the Raiders and looks like you have a solid bet on the Over 6.5 GL, Cheers