We lost our hedge bet with San Francisco, but Philly won the 4th quarter to make up for it and everything else came up roses. Philly is alive, along with all of our future Super Bowl tickets, we won our hedge parlay with Philly and Kansas City, and right now Christian McCaffrey is sitting in first place with the most postseason rushing yards.
Here are the postseason rushing leaders to date:
1) Christian McCaffrey - 238 yards (our boy at +500)
2) Joe Mixon - 163 yards (eliminated)
3) Kenneth Gainwell - 160 yards
4) Miles Sanders - 132 yards
4) Isiah Pacheco - 121 yards
Our hedge bet last week guaranteed us a profit and now we might end up having our cake and eating it too, if McCaffrey can just hold on. I think he will, but if you want further insurance, you can hedge by taking Gainwell, Sanders, or Pacheco over their rushing total. That could be another case where you win your hedge, while McCaffrey still has a chance to cash.
82-68-3 ATS (54.6 percent), including 63-43-3 ATS (59.4 percent) as underdogs.
Game Rating System
Regular season: 50-40-1 ATS, including 42-31-1 ATS as underdogs.
Postseason: 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS
Here are the lines for this week:
Kansas City -1
League Ranking Analysis
Regular season: 52-56-3 ATS, including 32-33-3 ATS as underdogs.
Postseason: 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS
Here are the lines for this week:
Smart Investor System
Kansas City will qualify this week if they are getting 2 or more points and if Mahomes is playing. These games are 3-8-1 ATS, 2-10 SU on the money line, and 6-6 ATS in the first half this year.
41-26-4 ATS (61.1 percent)
Kansas City vs. Philadelphia
Did you ever have a song stuck in your head? A really obnoxious song that you heard on the radio and now you can't rid get of? That happened to me last Sunday and the song I couldn't shake was one of the worst songs of all time: "Disco Duck."
Only the words I kept hearing in my head weren't Disco . . . Disco duck! They were Frisco . . . Frisco suck!
Over and over and over again while our Eagles pounded out a win.
Kyle Shanahan is now 3-5 SUATS on the road at Philadelphia, and 5-10 SUATS vs. Philadelphia overall. He's lost the 4th quarter in his last four playoff losses. And rookie quarterback Brock Purdy joins Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, Mark Sanchez, Andy Dalton, Tim Tebow, Andrew Luck, and Russell Wilson as yet another quarterback to lead his team to the playoffs in his rookie year only to suffer defeat in a road playoff game.
Frisco . . . Frisco suck! Quack! Quack!
Kansas City head coach Andy Reid is 3-0 SUATS vs. his former Philadelphia team, winning by scores of 26-16, 27-20, and 42-30. The most recent win was last season.
Reid is also 30-6 SU and 22-14 ATS with a week of rest. Forget the ATS mark, if he wins this game, he covers. Meanwhile, quarterback Patrick Mahomes is 11-1 SU with a week of rest and 10-3 SU in the postseason. Two of his three playoff losses were to Tom Brady. As good as Jalen Hurts has played this year, he's not Brady in his prime.
Reid and Mahomes have been on this stage before; three times for Reid and twice for Mahomes. For Philadelphia's young staff, this will be the biggest game any of them has ever been in. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see Nick Sirianni panic early and abandon the run game in an attempt to win a shoot-out.
Kansas City advanced through the postseason by beating Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow, along with their coaches: Super Bowl-winning Doug Pederson, and Super Bowl runner-up Zac Taylor.
Philadelphia advanced by beating Daniel Jones, a quarterback with a losing record; rookie quarterback Brock Purdy in his first-ever road playoff start; and fourth-string quarterback Josh Johnson, along with their coaches: first-year head coach Brian Daboll, and Kyle Shanahan, a head coach known for struggling on the road at Philadelphia and for blowing 4th quarter postseason leads.
In other words, Kansas City faced some stiff postseason competition, while Philadelphia had a virtual cakewalk.
Public bettors took it on the chin last week, losing with San Francisco and Cincinnati, and this week they're piling on the Eagles. Granted, Philadelphia has looked like the team to beat all season, but Kansas City is the one opponent that worries me. They have the better coaching staff, the better quarterback, and thanks to a rash of early money coming in on Philadelphia, they're now getting points.
If you're holding future tickets on Philadelphia at +500 and +600 as I am, then there's no sense in betting this game other than taking Kansas City with the points as a hedge. You'll likely win one or the other, although there is the slightest of slight chances you'll middle both bets. And while you're at it, buy the half point up to +3.
Kansas City +3 to lock in a profit against our Super Bowl future tickets on Philly.