Pregame NFL Record – 5 Years:
468 – 398 @ 54% for +30.2 Units
Pregame NFL Record – 2022:
40 – 38 @ 51% for -1.8 Units
Conference Championships NFL:
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#2: Under 48 CIN/KC
My model has this game at 26-22 KC, but….. that’s not taking into account the high-ankle sprain that Mahomes suffered last week. Sure he’ll play, but I just don’t think he’ll be as effective as if he was 100% healthy. I believe that’s why this spread is below a FG, but I don’t think the total has been adjusted enough. A hobbled Mahomes will have to stay in the pocket and a lot of his improvisational ability will be mitigated here. On the other side, we have a Cincy offense that is without their 3 starting O-linemen, with another one gutting through an injury suffered last week. Against the Bills, in snowy conditions, the pass-rush wasn’t as effective. I think KC will have much more success. They rank 5th in pressure-rate and 3rd in Adjusted Sack Rate this season. The weather will be very cold in KC, but there won’t be any snow, so the footing shouldn’t be an issue. Plus the bulleting-board material Cincy is providing for the Chiefs should keep the defense highly motivated in this one. I think we’ll see a much lower-scoring game than the total indicates.
Good Luck