The Bengals have Offensive Yards Per Play of 5.4. Their Defensive Yards Per Play is also 5.4. The last 40 teams to play in the Super Bowl have ALL had a better YPP Differential than the 2022 Bengals. The Chiefs have: OFF 6.4 / DEF 5.1 for a 1.3 YPP DIF. That is the best in the NFL.
I've read more than one article/analysis stating that the Chiefs offense has suffered because of the loss of Tyreek Hill. Stats clearly show otherwise. The Chiefs offense is as good or better this year than it has been the last 3 seasons. Higher YPP, higher YPPA, higher YPR, 29.1 PPG vs 29.4 last season. The Chiefs defense has improved in almost every measurable way too, though it still is mediocre.
The Bengals have beaten the Chiefs the last three meetings, all having occurred in just a little over 13 months. All three games were decided by a field goal. All 3 had more scoring than the posted total of 47 on this game.
If KC can hang onto the ball, they can win this game. I'm on the Chiefs, and the over. I also have smaller bets on the Chiefs -9.5/+280 and -13.5/+420. Good luck.