Mike's weekly Newsletter.....update on Friday.
Aside from our Super Bowl future ticket on Buffalo, we won every bet last week. And we're now in position to finish the season with a flourish.
For starters, we have Joe Mixon at +950 to finish with the most postseason rushing yards, and Christian McCaffery to do the same at +500. If either of their teams win this week, then we're almost certain to win that bet. If both of their teams win this week, then we're absolutely certain to win that bet. Even if both teams lose this week, we might still win if they can rack up some decent yards in their respective games.
Here are the postseason rushing leaders to date:
1) Christian McCaffrey - 154 yards (our boy at +500)
2) Joe Mixon - 144 yards (our boy at +950)
3) Kenneth Gainwell - 112 yards (if Philly goes the distance, he has a chance to win)
4) Isiah Pacheco - 95 yards (bringing up the rear)
In addition to these bets, we still have Philadelphia to win it all at +500 and +600.
82-68-3 ATS (54.6 percent), including 63-43-3 ATS (59.4 percent) as underdogs.
Game Rating System
Regular season: 50-40-1 ATS, including 42-31-1 ATS as underdogs.
Postseason: 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS (1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS last week)
Here are the lines for this week:
Kansas City -3
San Francisco -3.5
League Ranking Analysis
Regular season: 52-56-3 ATS, including 32-33-3 ATS as underdogs.
Postseason: 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS (3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS last week)
Here are the lines for this week:
Smart Investor System
Cincinnati was a triple winner last week, winning with the points, on the money line, and in the 1st half. Kansas City will qualify this week if they are getting 2 or more points and if Mahomes is playing. These games are 3-8-1 ATS, 2-10 SU on the money line, and 6-6 ATS in the first half this year.
41-26-4 ATS (61.1 percent)
San Francisco at PHILADELPHIA
Now you know why I wanted more points with Dallas last week rather than the meager field goal they were getting. As long as Kellen Moore continues to call plays for them, they will never get over the hump.
Because Philadelphia won so decisively last week and because San Francisco struggled before winning, the line for this game is slightly inflated, but not terribly so. I have that future ticket on Philly, so there's no need for me to bet this game other than a possible hedge bet with Frisco. If the line hits +3, I'll consider it. Definitely if the line hits +3.5.
Another hedge possibility is a teaser with Frisco and Kansas City, in both cases up past the key numbers of 3, 4, 6, and 7.
Cincinnati at KANSAS CITY
How about those Jaguars? They were an easy win for us and they could have won the game outright. Travis Etienne and JaMycal Hasty were running for a combined 7 yards per carry, but whoever was calling plays for Jacksonville simply refused to give them the ball. They finished with 14 carries between the two of them, compared to 39 pass attempts. Yet another case of an offensive play-caller costing his team a game. It's amazing how we can see it, but the coaches can't.
While we're on the subject of last week's games, how about those Bengals? They were an easy win for us too. Actually, it was less a case of Cincinnati winning than of Buffalo imploding. You could say the same thing about Cincinnati's playoff win against Baltimore, and about Kansas City's win over Jacksonville last week. Teams don't necessarily win games; their opponents lose them.
Much was made last week of Cincinnati's offensive line woes, but it proved to be much ado about nothing. However, that was then and this is now. There's a big difference between Buffalo's inadequate coaching staff and the coaching staff that Cincinnati will face this week. Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is a master at attacking a team's offensive line, particularly in the postseason as he proved in the 2007 Super Bowl.
Meanwhile, everyone who made such a big hullabaloo about Cincinnati's offensive line last week and bet against them, is now saying the exact same thing about Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes for this week. But here's the thing about injuries: the oddsmaker has a list that shows every player's relevance to the point-spread. In other words, the list contains the exact point-spread value for every player. I sent all of you a copy of the quarterback list a couple of years ago. But it's not just quarterbacks. Every player has a value and it's usually much less than you would think.
Unless you have the same list that the oddsmaker has, it's not only pointless to try handicapping a game based on injuries, it's detrimental. You stand a great risk of either underestimating or overestimating a player's worth (most bettors overestimate).
For anyone that insists on handicapping injuries, I recommend you get a copy of that list. If you can't do that, then make your own list. But it better be accurate or you'll be flying blind.
If Cincinnati wins this game, then our ticket on Joe Burrow will be looking very good. If the line rises to Kansas City +3, I might be interested in a small hedge on the Chiefs. Definitely if it rises to +3.5. Or that teaser with Frisco.