Last week, my teaser experiment burned me badly. Not only did the Chiefs victimize me by giving up a late meaningless FG on Saturday, but the Pats, Cards and Rams all lost outright with both the Cards and Rams blowing leads. Something in my gut was telling me to completely pass on Week 18, but I wasn’t smart enough to listen and I got burned by the randomness of the final week of the regular season in the NFL. The Bucs Titans, Saints and WFT all wo, but I did not pair any of them in teasers. The Chiefs, Pats and Rams all lost and the Chargers pushed. That left me with an 0-5 record for the week, good for -8 units. That brought my season record down to 64-52, good for +14.16 units. That’s not great, but it’s still a lot better than it was just five weeks ago. I can’t say that my teaser experiment was a huge success. It wasn’t. However, I can, at least, say that it wasn’t an abject failure either. Over the next 9 months, I’ll need to figure out if the problem was my premise that teasers are a better way to go, or was it just me making some bad decisions about which teams to tease. My guess is the latter. Teaser odds have risen from the standard -110 to -120 or even more at some places. The books have obviously figured out that teasers represent a real threat to their profit margins and have adjusted accordingly.
I will be playing some teasers this week. Here are the teasers I bet thus far.
- CIN +0.5 and BUF +2
- CIN +0.5 and TB -2.5
- CIN +0.5 and DAL +3
- CIN +0.5 and KC -6.5
- BUF +2 and TB -2.5
- BUF +2 and DAL +3
- BUF +2 and KC -6.5
- TB -2.5 and DAL +3
- TB +2 and KC -6.5
- DAL +3 and KC -6.5
Apparently because I had at least one 5-0 week in PG’s “Like SuperContest”, I got invited to play in their “Exclusive Playoff Contest”. While I appreciate that, I also feel kind of guilty about it. Yes, I had a 5-0 week. So what? Even a broken clock is right twice a day. I did not have a good season, so I’ll consider myself lucky to be in the contest and try to make the most of it.
I wanted to take this contest seriously so thus far I have now broken down five of the six playoff games. As long as I did that, I might as well share. I’m not sure what it’s worth, but here it is.
LV @ CIN
The Raiders running game could struggle here. First of all, it’s just not very good, averaging just 95.1 rushing YPG (rank 328) and 3.9 YPC (rank #27). Second, the Bengals have a solid run D, giving up just 102.5 rushing YPG (rank #5) and 4.3 YPC (rank #13). The Bengals should be able to shut down RB Josh Jacobs and the Raiders poor ground attack.
That means that the Raiders will need a big game from QB Derek Carr to hang with the Bengals here and they might even get it. The Raiders do have a solid passing attack, averaging 268.6 passing YPG (rank #6). Carr is completing 68.4% of his passes (rank #5) for 4,563 net passing yards (rank #5) and 6.9 net passing YPP (rank #7), with a 94.0 QBR (rank #14), 23 TDs (rank #13), 14 INTs, but 40 sacks (rank #5).
The Bengals pass D isn’t awful, but it’s not great either. They’re allowing over a 67% completion rate (rank #26), and giving up 248.4 passing YPG (rank #26) with an average opponent passer rating of 93.1 (rank #18). For the Bengals to be effective against Carr, they will need to pressure him and they do have 42 sacks (rank #10) and a 6.29% sack rate (rank #14).
That said, the Raiders still have some advantages. While the Bengals are solid against WRs, covering TE’s has been more problematic and the Raiders have a very good one in Daren Waller. Waller, who was coming off a knee injury and last played on Thanksgiving, returned last week. While he didn’t have any catches or targets, his mere presence seemed to open things up for the other Vegas receivers. Waller’s been limited in practice this week, but if healthy, he can be a difference maker. In the 10 games before his injury, the Raiders averaged 29.4 PPG, while averaging just 19.1 during his 6-game absence. Is it just a coincidence that the Raiders happened to put up 35 last week when Waller returned to action?
The Bengals also have a less than stellar rushing attack spearheaded by RB Joe Mixon. The Bengals averaged just 102.5 rushing YPG this season (ranks #23) and just 4.0 YPC (ranks #26). By contrast, The Raiders are giving up 114.3 rushing YPG (rank #19), but just 4.2 YPC (rank #10), so the Raiders should be able to slow down the Bengals running attack.
That means that the Bengals will also need a strong game from QB Joe Burrow, who was held out of last week’s meaningless game at the Browns. Burrow was superb is his last two games, completing 30 of 39 passes (76.9%) against the Chiefs, for 446 yards and 4 TDs in the Bengals 34-31 win in Week 17 to clinch the AFC North. That was one week before completing 37 of 46 passes (80.4%) for 525 yards (the 3rd-most passing yards in a single game in NFL history) against an injury ravaged Ravens secondary in the Bengals 31-21 win. Burrow has been particularly effective against teams that try to blitz him. That’s very unusual for a young QB. Most tend to struggle against the blitz, but Burrow isn’t like most young QBs. He’s a hell of a lot better! The Ravens and Chiefs both blitzed often, and Burrow absolutely torched them.
However, the Raiders blitz less than any other NFL team. They have a dominant DL that can pressure Burrow with just their front four. Fortunately, Burrow, has a ton of receiving weapons at his disposal, so he should still have success throwing the ball. This season Burrow ranked #1 among NFL QBs with a 70.4% completion rate for 4,241 net passing yards (rank #8) and 7.4 net passing YPP (rank #2), with a 108.3 QBR (rank #2), 34 TDs (rank #8), and 14 INTs and that’s despite taking a league leading 51 sacks. The Raiders pass D isn’t awful, but it’s not great either. They are allowing over a 66% completion % (rank #22), and giving up 222.9 passing YPG (rank #13) with an average opponent passer rating of 96.4 (rank #24). For the Raiders to be effective against Burrows, they’re going to need to pressure him and this season they only have 35 sacks (rank #20) and a 5.46% sack rate (rank #23). Against Burrow, that may not be good enough.
The power ratings that I use tell me that the Bengals should be favored by 5 to 7.5 points in this game. Both Teddy Covers and Steve Fezzik have the Bengals -5, while Chris Andrews makes the Bengals -7.5, so this 5.5-point spread is mostly consistent with that. This line opened CIN -6, but apparently sharp money has moved it to -5.5.
These teams met in Week 11 (before Waller’s injury) and the Bengals won 32-13 in CIN, b completed 68.8% of his passes (rank #4), for 4,305 net passing yards (rank #6) and 6.9 net passing YPP (rank #6), with a 104.2 QBR (rank #3), 37 TDs (rank #4), and 10 INTs, while taking 30 sacks. However, the yardage was even and the Raiders did average more yards per play, so I guess that the game might have been closer than the final score. Still the power ratings tell me that the Bengals are the better team here. The numbers also tell me that Burrow is the better QB. I’m also not sure how healthy Waller really is. He’s still listed as questionable and has been limited in practice.
Another concern is the weather. The Raiders are a dome/warm weather team, and it's projected to be below 20 degrees in CIN at game-time. Warm weather teams tend to struggle in cold weather.
It’s also true that QBs making their first playoff start often struggle, but this will be the first playoff start for both Burrow and Carr. The numbers say that those QBs fare worse as favorites (6-16 ATS since 2002), but as dogs, they’re no prize either (8-10 ATS).
Finally, the Raiders have been incredibly lucky this season in coin-flip games. They were on the right side of four OT wins, and were also 3-1 in four other games that were decided by 4 points or less. That’s a 7-1 record in those coin-flip games. That’s simply not sustainable.
As I understand it, I have to play every side and total in this contest. I took the Bengals -5/5 and Over 48.5. I don’t see either of these defenses stopping much. I don’t like laying more than a FG, so for betting purposes, I teased the Bengals down to +0.5, where they just have to win the damned game.
NE @ BUF
These two teams will be meeting for the 3rd time this season. The Pats won 14-10 in BUF in Week 13, and the Bills returned the favor three weeks later in NE, winning 33-21. That first game in BUF was played in fierce winds. Theoretically, Bills QB Josh Allen, unlike Pats QB Mac Jones, should have had the arm strength to throw the ball even under those conditions, but , for some unknown reason, he didn’t, throwing just 30 passes and only completing 15 for 145 yards. Instead, the Bills played right into the Pats’ hands by trying to run the ball and more often than not they got stuffed totaling just 99 yards on 25 carries, and just 4.0 YPC. By contrast, the Pats ran the ball 46 times totaling 222 rushing yards and 4.8 YPC, while and throwing just 3 passes. I think that the Bills made a strategic error and it cost them the game.
The winds weren't anywhere near as bad in the second game and Allen had a great game, completing 30 of his 47 passes for 314 yards and 3 TDs, as well as running the ball 12 times for 64 yards. Allen was particularly effective in the 4th quarter when he kept drives alive with clutch throws and scrambles.
For the Pats offense to work, they will need to run the ball. The Pats averaged 126.5 YPG (rank #8) this season and 4.4 YPC (rank #11). The Bills, on the other hand, have sometimes struggled to stop strong rushing attacks. This season, they gave up 109.8 rushing YPG (rank #13) and 4.2 YPC (rank #11). That doesn’t look all that bad, but in their two games against the Bills, the Pats were able to rush for a robust 371 rushing yards and a whopping 5.1 YPC. I see no reason to believe that changes in this game, so unless the Pats are getting blown out, they should be able to establish their rushing attack enough to keep this game close and keep Allen off the field.
However, If the Pats fall behind and have to throw the ball, they could be in serious trouble. The Pats are averaged a mediocre 226.9 passing YPG (rank #14). Rookie QB Mac Jones completed 67.6% of his passes (rank #8), for 3,560 net passing yards (rank #13) and 6.5 net passing YPP (rank #14), with a 92.5 QBR (rank #15), and 22 TDs (rank #14), and 13 INTs, while taking 28 sacks. In his two starts against the Bills, Jones completed just 16 of 35 passes (45.7%) for 164 yards with 0 TDs, 2 picks and 1 sack. He also ran 11 times, but for 30 yards. Those are hardly impressive numbers, but in fairness to Jones, the Pats haven’t asked him to do much more than manage the game and avoid TOs.
It should also be noted that the Bills have an excellent pass D, giving up just 163 passing yards per game (rank #1) this season. Opposing QBs are completed just 56% of their passes (rank #1) with an average passer rating of 65.3 (rank #1). The Bills also have 42 sacks (rank #11) and 19 picks (rank #3). Longtime nemesis Tom Brady is really the only QB who enjoyed success against the Bills this season. Jones could struggle again v the Bills elite pass D.
The Bills will also try to establish their running game here. This season, they averaged 129.9 rushing YPG and 4.8 YPC (both ranked #6). However, in their two games against the Pats, while they ran for 213 yards, they averaged only a paltry 4.0 YPC. It’s not that the Pats have a great run D. They don’t. They gave up 123.7 rushing YPG (rank #22) and a robust 4.5 YPC (rank #25). The Bills just might be able to run on the Pats.
That said, almost two-thirds of the Bills’ offensive yardage came through the air this season. They averaged 252 passing YPG (rank #9). QB Josh Allen completed 63.3% of his passes (rank #24), but for 4,243 net passing yards (rank #7) and 6.3 net passing YPP (rank #16), with a 92.2 QBR (rank #16), 36 TDs (rank #7), and 16 INTs, while taking 26 sacks. In his two starts against the Pats, Allen completed 45 of 77 passes (58.4%) for 459 yards with 4 TDs, 0 picks and 2 sacks. He also ran 18 times for 103 yards.
In fairness, it should also be noted that the Pats also have a really good pass D, giving up just 187.1 passing yards per game (rank #2). Opposing QBs completed just 59.3% of their passes (rank #2) with an average passer rating of 73.3 (rank #2). The Pats also have 36 sacks (rank #18) and 21 picks (rank #2). It’s understandable that Allen might struggle more against the Pats elite pass D. Pats HC Bill Belichick is notoriously good at taking away one aspect of the opposing team’s offense and the Pats were also very good at defending TEs, but the Bills have so many weapons that even with #1 WR Stefon Diggs and TE Dawson Knox limited, Allen still has WRs Cole Beasley, Gabriel Davis and Emmanuel Sanders, as well as RB Devin Singletary, who developed into an important part of the receiving corps, out of the backfield. Allen also has the ability to beat the Pats with his mobility; Belichick's defenses, as good as they have been, have still been worse against scrambling QBs.
The power ratings that I use tell me that the Bills should be favored by 3 to 5 points in this game, Chris Andrews makes the Bills -3, Steve Fezzik -4, and Teddy Covers -5, so this 4-point spread is totally consistent with those ratings. This line opened BUF -4 and hasn’t moved yet. The power ratings tell me that the Bills are the better team here.
These teams met twice this season with the Pats winning 14-10 in BUF in a game obviously heavily impacted by monsoon-like winds. The Bills won 33-21 in the rematch in BUF on Week 16. The numbers also tell me that Allen is the much better QB.
As for the weather, it’s always a concern in Buffalo in January. We know that it will be cold, about 25 degrees, but no major wind or precipitation is expected and the Pats, like the Bills are a cold weather team. My biggest concern would be wind and we won’t be sure about that until closer to game time.
If should also be noted that QBs making their first playoff start often struggle, and this will be the first playoff start for Jones. The numbers say that those QBs fare worse as favorites (6-16 ATS since 2002), but as dogs, they’re no prize either (8-10 ATS).
I have nothing but the utmost respect for Bill Bellichick. He’s as good as they come and he’s done a masterful job in getting this Pats team into the playoffs, but I just don’t like the rookie QB’s chances in this game. Not only is he making his first playoff start, but he will be facing arguably the league’s best pass D. Jones struggled last week in MIA and I think he could struggle again here.
In the contest, I took the Bills -4 and Under 44. I like the Bills, but, as mentioned, I do worry about laying more than a FG with two good teams. For betting purposes, I teased the Bills down to +2, where they basically just have to win the game.
PHIL @ TB
These two teams met back in Week 6 with the Bucs winning 28-22. Playing with an injured thumb, the ancient Tom Brady came out firing, tossing TD passes on the Bucs first two drives while going 11 for 12 for 121 yards. The Buccaneers led 28-7 with under 6 minutes left in the 3rd, then took their foot off the gas, giving up 15 garbage time points in a win that looks a while lot closer than it really was.
The Eagles absolutely will be looking to establish their potent running attack. They run the ball more (51.2%) than any other team in the league, averaging 159.7 rushing YPG (rank #1) and 4.9 YPC (rank #4). However, the Bucs have one of the better rushing Ds in the league, giving up just 92.5 rushing YPG (rank #3) and 4.3 YPC (rank #13). However, the Bucs have uncharacteristically given up more rushing yards over the last few weeks, missing not only OLBs Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul but also defensive lynchpin ILB Lavonte David. The Bucs should get some of those injured players back this week. Both Barrett and Pierre-Paul returned to practice after missing the last two games with injury. David entered the 21-day designated to return window on Wednesday, meaning he can hop off IR at any time. If healthy, those players could solidify the Bucs suddenly shaky run D.
If the Bucs are able to slow down the Eagles running game and force QB Jalen Hurts to beat them by throwing the ball, the Eagles could struggle here. The Eagles only average 200.2 passing YPG (rank #25). Hurts completed just 61.3% of his passes (rank #28), for 2,994 net passing yards (rank #20) and 6.5 net passing YPP (rank #13), with a 87.2 QBR (rank #22), 16 TDs (rank #23), and 9 INTs, while taking 26 sacks. In his one start against the Bucs, Hurts completed just 12 of 28 passes (42.9%) for 115 yards with 1 TD, 1 pick and 2 sacks. He also ran 10 times for 44 yards and 2 TDs.
The Bucs don’t have a great pass D, giving up 238.9 passing yards per game (rank #21). Opposing QBs are completed 65.4% of their passes (rank #17) against them, with an average passer rating of 85.6 (rank #8). However, the Bucs also have 47 sacks (rank #7) and 17 picks (rank #8), so they can pressure the QB and having Barrett and Pierre-Paul back will only help to rattle a shaky young QB making his first playoff start.
The Bucs have struggled to run the ball, especially with RB Leonard Fournette missing the last three games of the season. They averaged just 98.4 rushing YPG (rank #26) and 4.3 YPC (rank #15). Fournette ran for 812 yards, average 4.5 YPC with 8 rushing TDs this season nad he was just activated from IR and returned to practice on Wednesday. His return should provide a big boost to the Bucs offense.
As for the Bucs passing game, it’s just fine thank you. The Bucs are averaging a league leading 307.6 passing YPG. 44-year-old, and seven-time Super Bowl champion QB Tom Brady had himself another terrific season, completing 67.5% of his passes (rank #9), for 5,172 net passing yards (rank #1) and 7.0 net passing YPP (rank #5), with a 102.1 QBR (rank #7), 43 TDs (rank #1), and 12 INTs, while taking 22 sacks. That’s despite losing some key weapons in WR’s Chris Godwin (IR) and Antonio Brown, who was booted from the team. In his one start against the Eagles, Brady completed 34 of 42 passes (81%) for 297 yards with 2 TDs, 1 pick and 0 sacks.
The Eagles don’t have a great pass D either, giving up 220.9 passing yards per game (rank #11). Opposing QBs are completed a league-best 69.4% of their passes (rank #32) against them, with an average passer rating of 95.4 (rank #23). The Eagles also struggle to get to the QB with just 29 sacks (rank #31, only the Falcons had less) and 12 picks (rank #23). TE Rob Gronkowski and Fournette as a receiver out of the backfield should feast on the Eagles' poor LB corps. The Eagles have also struggled to contain #1 WRs this season, so they may struggle to contain WR Mike Evans, Brady’s lone remaining downfield threat.
The power ratings that I use tell me that the Bucs should be favored by 7 to 8.5 points in this game, Chris Andrews and Steve Fezzik make the Bucs -7, while Teddy Covers has them -8.5, so this 8.5-point spread could be a little on the high side. This line opened TB -8, so the Bucs have taken a little money. The power ratings all tell me that the Bucs are the clearly better team here and the numbers say that Brady os the way better QB.
This is yet another game in which a QB, Jalen Hurts is making his first playoff start, and as previously mentioned those QBs often struggle. The numbers say that those QBs fare worse as favorites (6-16 ATS since 2002), but as dogs, they’re no prize either (8-10 ATS).
I give the Eagles all the credit in the world for getting this far, but to have any chance, the Eagles will have to run the ball. That’s what they do. The problem is that the Eagles may not be able to run on a solid Bucs run D, especially if Barrett and Pier-Paul return. And if the Eagles can’t run, I don’t see how they keep this game competitive. Hurt’s is not a good QB and he will be making his first playoff start. He struggled last week against the Cowboys and I think he struggles again here.
Additionally, the Eagles will be facing the venerable Brady, who already owns seven Super Bowl rings, and at 44, may well be having one of his best seasons. The man is absolutely amazing.
I love the Bucs and took them -8.5 and nder 44 in the contest, but I do worry about laying more than a TD with the risk of a meaningless late, garbage time, back-door score from the Eagles. I still think it's more likely that we'll see the Bucs win in a blowout. Still. for betting purposes, I teased the Bucs down to -2.5 in a classic Wong teaser, to where they basically just have to win the game.
SF @ DAL
After a slow start, the 49ers' offense looked unstoppable in their 27-24 OT win over the Rams in LA.
The 49ers rely heavily on a strong running game that averaged 127.4 rushing YPG (rank #7) and 4.3 YPC (rank #15) this season. They ran the ball 47.7% of the time. Only three teams, the Eagles, Titans and Saints ran more. To slow down the 49ers, the Cowboys will need to slow down the 49er running attack, but the Cow Pokes are weaker against the run than they are against the pass. This season they allowed 112.8 rushing YPG (rank #16) and 4.5 YPC (rank #22). The 49er will need to establish their ground game here to control the clock and keep the Cowboys potent offense and QB Dak Prescott off the field.
As for the 49er passing attack, it is averaging 248.3 passing YPG (rank #12). QB Jimmy Garropolo completed 68.3% of his passes (rank #6), for 3,609 net passing yards (rank #12) and a whopping 7.7 net passing YPP (rank #1), with a 98.7 QBR (rank #9), 20 TDs (rank #17), and 12 INTs, while taking 29 sacks. I just don’t understand why this guy doesn’t get more credit for what he’s accomplished. His numbers all say that, while he may not be elite, he’s a well above average NFL QB.
The passing yards allowed seem to indicate that the Cowboys don’t have a great pass D. This season they did give up 238.2 passing YPG (rank #20), but that number might be deceptive in that the Cowboys are often playing from well ahead, forcing opponent to throw more than they want to. Opposing QBs completed just 59.5% of their passes against them, with an average passer rating of just 76.3 (both ranked #3 and behind only the Bills and Pats). The Cowboys also can pressure QBs, accumulating 41 sacks (rank #13) and a league-leading 26 picks. That said, the Cowboys have struggled to defend TEs and the 49ers have an excellent one in George Kittle. He was second on the team with 71 catches for 910 yards with 6 TDs. The Cowboys also struggle more against slot receivers than they do against outside wideouts and again the 48er have an excellent one in Deebo Samuel, who leads the team with 77 catches for a team leading 1,405 yards and 6 TDs. This 49er passing attack may not be as potent or explosive as the Cowboys, but make not mistake, it is still dangerous.
The narrative this week has been that the Cowboys offense is back. They obliterated the Eagles, putting up 51 points against mostly Eagles’ backups in what was a meaningless game for the Eagles in Week 18, with QB Dak Prescott firing 5 TD passes in three quarters. Two weeks before, they put up 56 against the WASH FT in 56-14, Week 16 blowout. Everyone is singing the praises of this Cowboys. Long forgotten is the 20 they scored against the Cards in a week 17 loss, or the 6 they put up against the pathetic Giants in week 16. It's official, the Cowboys offense is the best thing since sliced bread!
I question whether the Cowboys will be able to run on these 49ers. This season the Cowboys did average 124.6 rushing YPG (rank #9) and 4.5 YPC (rank #7), but that includes 5 games against the Chargers, Falcons, Viking and Giants (twice), all of whom rank in the bottom quarter of the league’s rushing defenses. Running the ball on the 49ers stout run D is a totally different animal. The 49ers gave up just 103.7 rushing YPG and 4.0 YPC (by tanked rank #7). The Cowboys could struggle to run in this game, so they’ll have to throw.
The Cowboys should be able to throw on the 49ers’ injury-ravaged secondary. The Cowboys averaged 282.4 passing YPG this season. Only the Tom Brady led Bucs were better. QB Prescott completed 68.8% of his passes (rank #4), for 4,305 net passing yards (rank #6) and 6.9 net passing YPP (rank #6), with a 104.2 QBR (rank #3), 37 TDs (rank #4), and 10 INTs, while taking 30 sacks. WRs Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson, who combined for 113 receptions, good for 1.467 yards and 14 TDs, both have favorable matchups this week. WR CeeDee Lamb and TE Dalton Schultz, who combined for 157 receptions, go for 1,910 yards and 14 TDs, have tougher matchups, but they will still need to be accounted for. The Cowboys just have so many weapons that the 49ers may not be able to contain all of them.
The 49er pass D was less than stellar this season mostly because of all the injuries they suffered in their secondary. They only gave up 206.5 passing YPG (rank #6), but opposing QBs completed 68.3% of their passes against them (rank #29), with an average passer rating of 97.0 (rank #24). However, the 49ers were able to pressure opposing QBs, accumulating 48 sacks (rank #5), but just 9 picks (rank #26). I just don’t see this injury ravaged group shutting down all of Prescott’s weapons.
The power ratings that I use tell me that the Cowboys should be favored by 3.5 to 4.5 points in this game, Chris Andrews has the Cowboys -3.5, Steve Fezzik makes the Cowboys -4, and Teddy Covers has DAL -4.5, so at DAL -3 we might have some valu on the Cowboys. This line opened DAL -3 and hasn’t moved yet. The power ratings all tell me that the Cowboy might be slightly better, but don’t be the farm on it.
On paper, it looks like these two teams are pretty evenly matched. Neither team should have much success running the ball, but both offenses should be able to put up points here. The Cowboy receivers should have a huge edge over the 49ers' injury-ravaged secondary, and the 49ers should be able to exploit a vulnerable Cowboys pass D, with with Kittle, Samuel and Elijah Mitchell out of the backfield.
One edge that the Cowboys appear to have is the better pass rush. If the Cowboys can pressure Garropolo, it could lead to some mistakes and possible turnovers, creating some short fields for the Cowboys.
A second concern is that the 49ers are coming off a tough grueling OT game against the Rams last week. It was a game that the 49ers absolutely needed just to get into the playoffs. They also had to come back from 17 down. In other words, the 49ers left it all on the field and that had to take a lot out of them. I just don’t know how much they’ll have left in the tank.
Finally, I am concerned that stud LT Trent Williams missed practice on Thursday. If he doesn’t play, that would be huge. The 49ers will absolutely need him to protect Garropolo’s blind side.
On the other hand, I’m also worried about the 49er’s physicality and how the Cowboys will respond when they literally get punched in the mouth. The 49ers are a very physical team and they tend to beat up on soft opponent (yes Rams, I’m including you, among others). I’m just not sure how the Cowboys will respond.
Since I don’t see either team really stopping the other, I took this game Over the total of 50.5, and the Cowboys -3, but for betting purposes, since I like to tease teams to where they just have to win the game, I teased the Cowboys to +3.
PITT @ KC
Steelers’ HC Mike Tomlin deserves to be voted “Coach of the Year” for just getting this Steelers team into the playoffs. The Steelers are not a good team and it’s a miracle that they’re here, but now that they are, I just don’t see it lasting beyond this weekend.
These two teams met just three weeks ago in KC and the Chiefs rolled to an easy 36-10 blowout win that could have been even worse. Patrick Mahomes threw just five passes in the second half. Despite giving up a whopping 36 points, the Steelers offense was even worse. The Chiefs led 30-3 entering the 4th and the Steelers only TD came in garbage time.
The Steelers will need a huge game from RB Najee Harris just to stay in this game. The problem is that the Steelers running attack totally sucks. They averaged just 931 rushing YPG and 3.9 YPC (both ranked #29). That’s awful! The big reason why is a piss-poor OL that can’t open holes for Harris. Harris also missed practice on both Wednesday and Thursday. That’s an ominous sign. The Chiefs aren’t great at stopping the run either, but they are still better at stopping the run than the Steelers are at running the ball. The Chiefs gave up 117.6 rushing YPG (ranks #21) and a whopping 4.8 YPC (rank #31). Only the Steelers are worse. The Chiefs nay well struggle to stop decent running attacks, but the Steeler don’t even have a half-decent running attack.
If the Steelers can’t run, they’re going to have to throw the ball to move the chains. The problem is that the Steelers passing attack just isn’t good enough to keep up with the prolific Chiefs. The Steelers averaged 222.2 passing YPG this season (rank #15). Aging and immobile QB Ben Rothlisberger completed 64.5% of his passes (rank #21), for 3,501 net passing yards (rank #14) and an ugly 5.4 net passing YPP (rank #27), with an 86.8 QBR (rank #24), 22 TDs (rank #14), and 10 INTs, while taking 38 sacks.
The Chiefs pass D is pretty mediocre. They are giving up 251.4 passing YPG (rank #27). Opposing QBs completed 65.7% of their passes against them (rank #18), with an average passer rating of 92.0 (rank #16). The Chiefs also accumulated 31 sacks (rank #29), and 15 picks (rank #12).
All that given, the Steelers could still have serious issues in protecting their totally immobile QB. With no real threat of a running game to keep them honest, the Chief will just constantly come after Roethlisberger and the Steelers wretched OL that gave up 38 sacks this season won’t be able to stop them. Roethlisberger will be under constant pressure.
The Chiefs don’t have a great running attack. They averaged a mediocre 115 rushing YPG this season (rank #16), but 4.5 YPC (rank #7). However the Chiefs run D was attrocious this season, giving up a league worst 146.1 rushing YPG and a league worst 5.0 YPC. Even the Chiefs should be able to run on this unit.
The Chiefs will also have success throwing the ball. This season, they averaged 281/8 passing YPG (rank #4). QB Patrick Mahomes completed 66.3% of his passes (rank #17), but for 4,693 net passing yards (rank #3) and 6.8 net passing YPP (rank #8), with an 98.5 QBR (rank #10), 37 TDs (rank #4), and 13 INTs, while taking 28 sacks. Mahomes was excellent the last time he faced the Chiefs, three weeks ago, completing 23-of-30 (76/7%) for 258 yards and 3 TDs. That was despite throwing just 5 passes in the 2nd hal and without TE Travis Kelce, who was out with a minor illness. The Chiefs double-teamed WR Tyreek Hill, but Mahomes just torched the Steelers' secondary by going to his other weapons. With Kelce in the lineup, the Steelers won’t be able to double-team Hill, who had just 2 catches for 19 yards in that first meeting.
The Steelers have a decent pass D, that gave up 220.9 passing YPG (rank #11). Opposing QBs completed 63.1% of their passes against them (rank #9), with an average passer rating of 88.7 (rank #11), with 13 picks. On thing that the Steelers can do is get to the QB. This season they accumulated a league leading 55 sacks and they got to Mahomes twice in their first meeting three weeks ago.
The power ratings that I use tell me that the Chiefs should be favored by 10.5 to 11.5 points in this game, Chris Andrews has the Chiefs -10.5, while Steve Fezzik and Teddy Covers has it KC -11.5, so 12.5 looks a little high. This line opened KC -13.5 so a little shrp money came in early on the Steelers. The power ratings just confirm what I already knew, that the Chiefs are much better than the Steelers.
Nothing has really changed since these two teams last met three weeks ago, so I see no reason to think we’ll get a different result this week. Mahomes will have Kelce this time around, but Hill didn’t look especially healthy last week and didn’t do much against the Broncos. I really don’t know what to expect from him this week, but it shouldn’t matter. Mahomes has a ton of weapons and I doubt that the Steelers stop them all. The Chiefs should win easily and it shouldn’t be close.
My big problem is that the Chiefs have repeatedly demonstrated a propensity for taking their foot off the gas when they get ahead. They did it again, against the Broncos last week, winning by only 4. How can I trust them to cover 12.5?
I also noticed that teams defended the Chief differently this season, focusing on taking away Hill and the Chiefs deep passing game. Defenses were trying to keep everything in front of them, forcing Mahomes to throw shorter and more accurate passes and it kind of worked. Mahomes can certainly play that game, but it takes longer to matriculate down the field and one mistake can kill a drive.
I still think that the Chiefs are the much better team, so I took the Chiefs -12.5 in the contest as well as Under 46.5. I just don’t see how the Steelers score much even against a mediocre Chiefs’ D.
I won’t break own the Monday night game until Sunday and it will be a contest pick only. I refuse to put my money on either the Rams or the Cards. I don’t trust either team. I was disappointed to see them paired off against each other because I wanted to fade both.
BO all. Enjoy the games and have a great weekend!