Pregame NFL Record – 4 Years:
399 – 334 @ 54.4% for +31.6 Units
Pregame NFL Record – 2021:
55 – 40 @ 58% for +11.0 Units
-----------------------------------------------
Week 13 Plays:
#1: Top NFL Play for Week 13 - Click HERE to Join IN
#2: Atlanta Falcons +10.5
#3: Chicago Bears +7.5
#4: Cincinnati Bengals -3
#5: Detroit Lions +7.5
#6: New York Giants +6.5
#7: New York Jets +5.5
#8: Houston Texans +10.5
#9: Jacksonville Jaguars +13
#10: Pittsburgh Steelers +4.5
#11: Denver Broncos +9.5
Good Luck
Breakdowns:
MIN @ DET +7.5
The first meeting has the line @ MIN -10 at home. With home/away adjustments, we should expect the rematch to be around -4/-5 MIN, while it’s significantly higher, even crossing a key number of 7. My model has this one at MIN -2.5 so even more potential ‘value’. Lions had extra time to rest/prepare (played on Thanksgiving), are playing their second consecutive game at home, and have line-value on their side. This one could be a close divisional game.
Lean: DET +7.5
==========
NYG @ MIA -6
The lookahead line was MIA -2.5 which is where this one opened. Once Daniel Jones was declared out though this one moved to the current number. But is Jones really 3.5-points better than Mike Glennon? He ranks 25th in Efficiency and 25th in QBR (out of 33 QB’s), so is as subpar as one gets. Glennon has starter experience, was able to prepare and practice here, and I just don’t expect as much of a drop-off. Maybe he doesn’t have as much mobility, but he could very well be a better passer than Jones. Saquon Barkley is another week removed from his injury so he should be much more effective in this one, and I don’t see much of a drop-off from Jones. Both teams have had a myriad of injuries to the skill-position players, as both will rely on their defensive units to carry them here. Dolphins were -3.5 vs HOU at home a few weeks back, so I’m not sure why the spread is 2.5-points higher in this one. My model has this one at -3.5 MIA, so another data-point indicating a lot of value on the road-dog.
Lean: NYG +6
==========
TB @ ATL +10.5
Fournette’s half-time speech as well as in-game heroics helped Tampa overcome a DD halftime-deficit to win a game @ Indy last week….barely. Required 5 TO’s from the Colts just to barely squeak it out. Could we see a similar effort again this week, on the road @ Atlanta? I doubt it. Bucs have a game vs Buffalo coming up, which is the last “real” opponent they’re going to face this season. It’s really their last “measuring stick” prior to the playoffs (game vs NO, Jets, and two against CAR remain after next week’s showdown). This is a classic ‘look-ahead’ spot for the Bucs. While I’m not projecting an outright upset, but I also don’t see a motivated enough effort to blow the Falcons out. These teams met earlier this year, where the Bucs won 48-25. But let’s not forget that this was a 28-25 game going into the 4th quarter, and a pair of late game pick-6’s is what really made it such a large margin. Tampa were -13 in that one at home, and the spread has only adjusted by 2.5-points for this rematch. Look-ahead number was TB -9.5 and my model has this one at Bucs -7.5. Antonio Brown created additional ‘drama and distraction’ this week for Tampa so that doesn’t help mattes when it comes to a focused effort necessary to cover a DD-spread.
Lean: ATL +10.5
==========
LAC @ CIN -3
So the spread indicates that we have two evenly matched teams here. But the Chargers are playing in the early 1PM ET time-slot here and their second straight road-game. Cincy is at home for the second consecutive week and 4th in the last 5 weeks (including their BYE). They’ve demolished LV and PIT by a combined score of 73 – 23 over the last two games, both following their BYE week. Chargers, on the other hand, have a -1.8 PPG average margin, and are 1-5 ATS over the last 6 games. I think they’re in a tough scheduling spot here, playing a “hot” team. Doesn’t hurt that my model has this one CIN -7.5. Lost of value on this one.
Lean: CIN -3
==========
IND @ HOU +10
What a demoralizing outcome for the Colts last week. A week after absolutely dominating the Bills, Colts were leading by 10 at halftime, and received the ball to start out the second half. After moving it to Tampa’s 20 yard line, Wentz was sacked, fumbled the ball, and the Bucs recovered. And that was the beginning of the end, as the Colts had another turnover on their next possession (INT by Wentz), then a punt, until finally scoring another TD to tie-the game, only for Fournette to break their hearts with 20-seconds left. If not for 5 TO’s (4 really, as the last one came in the final seconds of the game), Colts would have won against another contender, and at 7-5 would have been in the driver’s seat to make the playoffs, and even challenge the Titans for the divisional crown. But alas, it was not meant to be. The question is, can this team bounce-back on the road with another dominant effort needed to cover a DD spread? After Houston, this team is hosting New England, has a game @ Arizona after that, and then a huge matchup with Las Vegas the following week. After two strong efforts against the Bills and the Bucs, and with such a tough schedule on the horizon, this team better not be looking-ahead here. Houston is at home for the second consecutive week and are coming off a bad loss at home to the Jets, thus in a bounce-back spot. The look-ahead line was IND -7 and my model has this one at IND -6.
Lean: HOU +10
==========
PHI @ NYJ +7
After a dominant run, Philly came back down to Earth last week with a dud against the Giants. They had four turnovers in that one and Hurts injured his ankle in the second half. He’s been limited in practice all week, but reports indicate that he should give it a go. The question of course is, how effective will he be? Hurts’ game is all about his mobility so this injury is a significant factor. Furthermore, Jordan Howard is out again, while Boston Scott did not practice all week and is listed as questionable. They’re Philly’s most efficient RB’s, so another key factor here. Honestly, it’s hard to expect an efficient showing from Philly here. They averaged only 5.1 YPP last week @ NYG, and with key players nursing injuries, I’d expect another inefficient showing here. Look-ahead line was PHI -6.5 and my model has this one at PHI -5. There’s value with the home dog in this one.
Lean: NYJ +7
==========
ARZ @ CHI +7.5
So will Murray play or won’t he? Honestly, I’ve done a lot of research to try to figure it out, and all info indicates that it’s truly a GTD. He’ll test out his ankle on Sunday prior to kickoff. Of course I’m wondering if weather will be a factor, as it’s expected to be cold (below 40), windy, and rainy during the game. Honestly, I wouldn’t risk having Murray out there in those conditions if he’s not 100% healthy. Arizona is coming off a BYE-week, but the Bears played on Thanksgiving, so have a mini-BYE themselves. Red Rocket is at quarterback which is actually an upgrade. I’d expect a lot of running in this one, which actually is an advantage for Chicago as they rank 17th in running-efficiency compared to 24th for the Cardinals. My model has this one at ARZ -5.5 so there’s a lot of value here as well.
Lean: CHI +7.5
==========
JAX @ LAR -13
I think I’m like 1-5 ATS betting games involving the Jags, but hopefully regression to the mean will start taking place here. This is a large number, especially given the fact that the Rams are playing really poorly, losing 3 in a row, with all kinds of strange reporting coming out that Stafford is hurt (though he’s not listed on the injury report). Losing Robert Woods is huge, and now Beckham and Henderson are dealing with injuries. Could we see another game of subpar performance by this Rams offense? Jacksonville is a bad team, but they’ve upset the Bills as a 14.5 point underdog and kept it close against the Colts as a 10.5 point road underdog. Can they go 3 for 3 in covering DD spreads this season? I think they could, as they’re facing this Rams team at the right time. My model has this one at LAR -10
Lean: JAX +13
==========
SF @ SEA +3
Since their BYE week, as Wilson came back under center, Seattle has scored 0 points @ GB, 13 points against Arizona, and 15 points on Monday @ Washington. Wilson is really struggling, this Seattle offense looks absolutely lifeless, and at 3-8 there is nothing to play for anymore. In comes a San Fran squad that is absolutely rolling right now, winning 4 of their last 5 games. This team righted the ship after their 4-game losing streak, with one of the losses being to Seattle at home. That was the game when Garoppolo got hurt. He’s fully healthy now, and I would expect San Fran to seek revenge in this one. In the first matchup Seattle averaged 6.3 YPP to Seattle’s 4.3 YPP, and outgained the Seahawks by over 220 yards (457 to 234). Two TO’s and a missed FG doomed them in that game but they’re a better team coming into this rematch.
Lean: SF -3
==========
BAL @ PIT +4.5
Steelers are coming into this one off two straight losses (probably can consider 3-straight, as that draw against the Lions at home must feel like a loss), while the Ravens are on a two-game winning streak. Of course barely beating the Bears by 3 (without Jackson) and a depleted Browns team by 6 last week isn’t that impressive. The Ravens have scored a total of 36 points in their last 3-games and will now go up against their top-rival on the road. For all intents and purposes, this is a must-win game for the Steelers if they want to have a shot at the playoffs. Their remaining schedule is very difficult, and in all honesty, this is one of a few ‘winnable’ games remaining. Look-ahead number was BAL -3 and my model has this one at PK. Value is on the desperate home-dog here.
Lean: PIT +4.5
==========
DEN @ KC -9.5
I know Chiefs are off a BYE-week, so should probably win this game, but the spread is simply too large. Denver is in a playoff-mix, they’re a divisional opponent, and they’re playing good football winning 3 of the last 4 games. They have the defensive playmakers that can cause TO’s and a lot of quality athletes on the offensive side. I think we’ll see a good close game in this one.
Lean: DEN +9.5
==========