Pregame NFL Record – 4 Years:
399 – 334 @ 54.4% for +31.6 Units
Pregame NFL Record – 2021:
52 – 37 @ 58% for +11.3 Units
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Week 12 Plays:
#1: Buffalo Bills -6 (Won)
#2: Top NFL Play for Week 12 - Click HERE to Join IN
#3: Houston Texans -2.5
#4: Philadelphia Eagles -3.5
#5: Miami Dolphins +1.5
#6: Baltimore Ravens -3 (-115)
Good Luck
Breakdowns:
ATL @ JAX +2
So the bookmakers are telling us that Atlanta is 4-5 points better than Jacksonville on neutral field. How is that possible? Jacksonville is a better team in efficiency metrics, they’re 2.5-points better by SRS, and my model has this one at JAX -3.5. Patterson has been limited in practice and is listed as questionable, and even at less than 100%, this is a big downgrade for the Falcons offense. Almost 70% on the road-favorite in this one, but the value lies with the home-dog. Keep in mind that Atlanta is 9-17 ATS as a favorite and 2-5 ATS as a road-favorite.
Lean: JAX +2
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NYJ @ HOU -2.5
Two really bad teams here, but the line almost indicates that they’re even and/or Jets are slightly better, depending on what you value home-field edge at (it’s less than 3 points this year…probably closer to 2/2.5). Still, this is another game where Houston is a better team by efficiency measures, they’re 3-points better based on SRS, and my model has this one at HOU -4. Also, it’s important to remember that Houston has a semi-competent Tyrod Taylor at QB while the Jets are starting Zack Wilson again, who is second from last at QB Efficiency (right in front of Justin Fields). Consider the fact that we have the Jets’ 32nd ranked defense (that’s dead-last for those that don’t follow the NFL closely ;) going up against the 10th ranked Houston D. That’s right, Houston is quietly 10th overall and 6th against the pass. Value is on the home team in this one.
Lean: HOU -2.5
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TEN @ NE -7
When the lookahead line of NE -3 came out last week I was really excited, as I knew I’d be fading this over-valued Titans team two weeks in a row (had Houston +10 in week 11, with an outright win). Alas, -3’s are history, as the current number is a full 4-points higher. Not surprising after the loss to Houston at home by the Titans, but unfortunately a ton of line-value is gone. Still, my model has this on at NE -7, so it’s not like the line is over-valued. The question is, is the number still playable? Titans aren’t just missing Derrick Henry and Julio Jones anymore, as they’ll be without AJ Brown, by far their most explosive playmaker. With the run-game incapable of moving the chains (McNichols is out again, Peterson has been released), it’ll be up to Tannehill to direct this offense, but unfortunately, he took a step back this year, and shown to really struggle with subpar supporting players. Facing the #1 ranked defense on the road is going to be difficult. On the other side, Titans D is also running out of bodies as they have key injuries at every level of the defense. Throw in the fact that the Titans ended Brady’s time in New England with a win @ Foxborough in the 2019 Wild Card game, and we can probably expect Belichick to be extra motivated to put his ‘pupil’ in his place.
Lean: NE -7
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PHI @ NYG +3.5
The lookahead line was PHI -2.5, so shows you how the Monday Night debacle has affected this one. Throw in the fact that the Giants are running out of bodies on offense, and maybe the spread isn’t that surprising after all. New York has finally gotten rid of Jason Garrett this week, but it’s not like he has had much to work with here. Facing a Philly team that is absolutely crushing opponents right now, this is a tough spot for the G-Men on a short-week. Giants rank 30th in run-defense and will be without Logan Ryan once again. That’s significant as Philly’s run-first approach over the last quarter of the season has produced a 3-1 record in the last 4 games. Tampa ran off 76 plays on Monday, and I just don’t see much resistance from the Giants defense coming up in this matchup.
Lean: PHI -3.5
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PIT @ CIN -3.5
Revenge game for the Steelers, after getting spanked by Cincy earlier this year. The line shifted from -4 opener, on the news that Watt is back in the lineup (as is Minkah Fitzpatrick). He missed the first matchup with an injury so will be looking to make an impact in this one. While the revenge angle in a divisional matchup is always a solid angle, especially in the AFC North, it’s hard to back this Pittsburgh team. They almost pulled a ‘rabbit out of a hat’ last week, as they were outgained 533 to 300 yards, averaging 4.6 YPP to Chargers’ 7.7. A blocked punt, a late INT, and a 4th-and-1 stop all in the 2nd half is what almost gifted Steelers a win, but they were a significantly worse team in that matchup. Watt’s return will help a lot, but this team is still hard to back with a short spread and playing their second in a row on the road.
Lean: CIN -3.5
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TB @ IND +3.5
While the Bucs crushed the helpless Giants, Colts had a much more impressive victory, annihilating the Bills on the road. Their O-line absolutely dominated that matchup and the key to this week is whether they can repeat that performance. Vita Vea is back in the lineup, which is a huge boost for this top-5 Bucs run-D. I think the focus will be on taking away the run and forcing Wentz to keep up with Brady in this one. That will go a long way in deciding this matchup. Still, my model has this one at IND -1.5 so there’s value on the home team in this one.
Lean: IND +3.5
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CAR @ MIA +2
Miami has won 3-in-a-row but the Panthers are the road-favorites in this one. Cam Newton has brought some energy to this Carolina squad, but let’s all remember that this is a mediocre QB who couldn’t beat out a rookie in training camp. Dolphins D is playing really well right now, they’re at home, and I have this game at PK.
Lean: MIA +2
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LAC @ DEN +2.5
If Denver learned anything two weeks ago while getting demolished by the Philly run-game at home, they’ll come out of the BYE using their two-headed rushing attack against this 32nd ranked Charges run-D. Chargers, for their part, dominated the Steelers last week but mistakes and lack of execution in key situations almost cost them the game. This team really struggles putting opponents away for some reason so it’s always a mystery when they’re in play. Denver is activating Bradley Chubb off of injured reserve, which will provide a big boost to this defense.
Lean: DEN +2.5
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MIN @ SF -3
The Vikings are down two more linemen on the D-line as Griffen and Tomlison are both out. Basically their whole starting D-line is out which is bad news against a run-focused offense like San Fran. This game could very well be a back-and-forth shoot-out type. Vikings are back on West Coast though after a big home win against the Packers last week. This team played @ BAL, then @ LAC, hosted the Packes, and now back on the road @ San Fran. That’s a lot of traveling, and coming off a big win, this could be a potential let-down spot. My model has this one at SF -3.5, so the number is fairly accurate.
Lean: SF -3
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LAR @ GB +2
Rodgers is dealing with a broken pinky and hasn’t practiced all week, but the same thing happened last week and the offense averaged 8.2 YPP on the road @ Minnesota. I’d assume lack of practice and this pinky injury shouldn’t be much of a concern, though Green Bay did lose T Elgton Jenkins to an ACL injury last week. In comes in a Rams team off of a BYE, looking to get back on track. Playing in frigid Green Bay weather might not be ideal and let’s not forget that Packers are very familiar with Stafford from his time with the Lions. My model has this one at GB -2.5 so there’s significant value on this home underdog.
Lean: GB +2
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CLE @ BAL -3.5
Lamar Jackson and Marquise Brown should be good to go here after missing last week @ Chicago. Cleveland barely won against Detroit at home, a team whose QB (Tim Boyle) averaged 3.3 YPA. How are they going to fare against a healthy Jackson? Unless the Browns put up 41 points like they did against the Bengals, I just don’t see this offense keeping up. In the 5-games outside of that Cincy domination, they averaged 12.2 PPG and are really struggling moving the ball.
Lean: BAL -3.5
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