The Packers opened as 2.5-point road favorites and sharp money at the Las Vegas SuperBook, South Point, and Station Casinos all came in on the Vikings. We have ourselves a sharp-public divide on the game.
they all like the 49ers to start the roll that never happened in 2021 as they come off an impressive Monday night win at the Rams.
The 49ers are 3-6 ATS and the Jaguars are 4-5 ATS and while sharp money hasn’t come on either side so far, the public appreciation of the 49ers this week forced a move from the 49ers -5.5 to -6.5. It’s the second most popular choice this week among the public. One extra note on the game is that the Jaguars better play in the last four weeks has also coincided with all four games staying under the total. The number dropped from 46 to 45 at Circa Sports.
So just like that, the betting public has decided that the Packers and 49ers are the top plays and the Titans are next since they’ve won six straight and covered five of the six. But sharp money at Station Casinos and BetMGM is once again taking the points dropping the visiting Texans from +10.5 to +10.
Again, another sharp-public divide. Two of the top-3 public games have sharp money against them and sharp money wins more than they lose.
After those three root games for most of the public, their favorites start to branch off into the Bills (-7 vs. Colts) while others are playing the Cardinals (-2 at Seattle), Chargers (-6 vs. Steelers), and Chiefs (-2,5 vs. Cowboys).
Speaking of the Jets, Joe Flacco at QB is starting against the Dolphins for some reason. This is insane. The Dolphins are 3-point road favorites before and -3.5 after the Flacco announcement and sharp money thinks the game stinks and public money says they hate both teams, so it's a stalemate. The Jets are 2-7, the season lost, but nothing can be gained by starting a dinosaur like Flacco. He’s not in future plans, Mike White might be. Flacco starting makes no sense other than maybe reviving Zach Wilson’s confidence that the starting QB job is his upon returning.
Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins has already been listed out and QB Kyler Murray is again a game-time decision. The Cardinals have been a steady 2-point road favorite since opening, but be cautious here even though Arizona is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Seattle. Russell Wilson will start his second game since coming back for the Seahawks, but wow was he awful in a 17-0 loss at Green Bay last week. If betting the Cardinals now, you might end up with Colt McCoy as your starting QB. The favorite will flip if McCoy starts.
The west coast Steelers fans will have about 70% of seats taken at SoFi Stadium when the Steelers play the Chargers Sunday night. No home edge for the Chargers other than sleeping on their own pillows Saturday night and not having to fly. It’s worth almost a full-point edge for the Chargers, but the flying Terrible Towels in the crowd and noise is worth half-point for the road team.
The public likes the Chargers and respected money at the SuperBook does too, laying -3.5 and -4.5. The Chargers are now -6.
he game that has Joe Public pulled in two directions is the Cowboys getting +2.5 at Kansas City. On one side, they’ve always loved the Chiefs and showed they’re back last week in a 41-14 win at Las Vegas.
Chiefs less than a field goal at home is too much to pass up for some. They like the Chiefs more than they like the Cowboys, even though the Cowboys had a reawakening win last week, 43-3, against the Falcons.
The top wiseguy play this week between the Atlantis, South Point, Station Casinos, and BetMGM was taking the Bears +6.5 at home against the Ravens who suffered a bad loss at Miami last Thursday.
Cam Newton is starting at QB for the Panthers at home against Washington and sharps laid -3 at the SuperBook to push them to -3.5 EVEN. The South Point took sharp action on Washington but remained at -3.5 flat.
BetMGM saw sharp bets on the Texans (+10.5) and Giants +11 Monday night at Tampa Bay. Are the Giants finally healthy?