Pregame NFL Record – 4 Years:
399 – 334 @ 54.4% for +31.6 Units
Pregame NFL Record – 2021:
27 – 16 @ 63% for +9.4 Units
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Week 6 Plays:
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#3: Cincinnati Bengals -3.5
#4: Houston Texans +10
#5: New York Giants +8
#6: Carolina Panthers +2.5
#7: Los Angeles Chargers +2.5
#8: Arizona Cardinals +3.5
#9: Denver Broncos -4
#10: Dallas Cowboys -3.5
#11: Jacksonville Jaguars +3
Good Luck
Breakdowns:
MIA VS JAX +3
Another week, another “sloppy” London game? Potentially, as we’ll have two of the worst teams in the league squaring off in this one. The question is, why are the Dolphins 3-point favorites on neutral field here? This team was listed at -1.5 in this game in the off-season and have shown to be significantly worse this year. The schedule adjusted margin of victory is the same for both teams as well. Sure, Tua is starting, but he’s been extremely subpar so far in his short career and will be without his top-2 receivers: Parker and Fuller. On the other side you have Lawrence, who is completing 70% of his passes over the last two games. Dolphins are without their top-CB (Xavien Howard), so I like Lawrence to have another good game here. Once key factor to note is that Urban Meyer bust be ecstatic about the John Gruden and the WFT email controversies surrounding the league. The spotlight is completely off of him, and this being an early game, not many people in the States will be paying much attention. Going into their BYE week and desperate for a win, I think we’ll see a strong effort out of Jags in this one.
Lean: JAX +3
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LAC @ BAL -2.5
Early start time for a West-Coast team here. Both teams are coming off very fortunate wins, as both should have lost last week. Normally I’d expect a let-down in this spot, but obviously someone will have to cover here. Ravens played on Monday night, so they’ve had a shorter week to prepare. The line movement is interesting though, as dropping off a key number like that doesn’t happen often. Then again, I do think Chargers are a better team. They have quality wins this year, with an only loss by a 3-point margin to a really good Dallas team. Ravens were lucky to win @ Detroit, vs KC, and last week against the Colts. None of those are impressive victories. They’ve also defeated Denver, where Bridgewater got knocked out early. Their only loss on the season came against Vegas, who are clearly a bottom-10 team in the league (albeit with a winning record….for now). Maybe there’s something to this line move after all…
Lean: LAC +2.5
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CIN @ DET +3.5
Is this the week that the Lions finally break through? Already without Tyrell Williams, they lost Quintez Cephus to a season ending shoulder injury. In addition, their starting center – Frank Ragnow – is done for the year as well. Hockenson, Jamaal Williams, and D’Andre Swift are all banged up, and though they’ll play, Detroit has no vertical game to speak off. Facing a 7th ranked Cincy D won’t be easy here. Both teams are coming off rough losses, on last-second FG kicks by opponents. Both teams will look to get a win here. But to me, Cincy is a much better team and this 27th ranked Lions pass-D will have its hands full with those offensive weapons that Bengals possess.
Lean: CIN -3.5
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KC @ WAS +6.5
Can this 29th ranked Washington pass-D hold up? That’s really the question here. After getting embarrassed on National TV last week, I’m sure this Chiefs O will bring their A-game. Defensively, that’s another story of course. Chris Jones is out which is huge, as is CB Charvarious Ward. Washington is good enough to move the ball on offense, and we could very well see a close-game shoot-out in this one.
Lean: WAS +6.5
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MIN @ CAR +2.5
Panthers opened as -1.5 home favorites, but the line dropped a full 4-points on the news that Christian McCaffrey has gone on IR. I mean, McCaffrey is good, but is he 4-points good? This is a RB we’re talking about after all. Vikings are coming off an improbable win, as they converted a last-second FG against the Lions at home. This team scored 7 points against Cleveland’s 19th ranked pass-D and 19 points against Detroit’s 27th ranked pass-D in the last two weeks, both at home. Now going on the road and facing the 2nd best pass-D in the league, what can we expect from the Vikings? Carolina is on a two game losing-streak, and I expect a focused effort here.
Lean: CAR +2.5
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HOU @ IND -10
Should the Colts be double-digit favorites to anyone in this league? Coming off a complete meltdown in Baltimore on Monday Night, are we expecting this team to bounce back and dominate here? For the Texans, David Mills had a breakout game last week, completing 72% of his passes for a 10.8 YPA with 312 yards and 3 TD’s. He had a QBR of 82. That was against a top-10 New England pass-defense. Now facing the 30th ranked Colt pass-D, can he maintain a higher level of performance? I think so, though it’ll be tougher on the road of course. This one could be closer than most think.
Lean: HOU +10
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LAR @ NY +8
The line was higher earlier in the week but with Jones being cleared to play it has settled at 8. No Barkley nor Golladay for the G-Men in this one, but Shepard and Slayton are on track to return. Rams have had 10-days to prepare for this one, and they’re as healthy as one can be. They are a west-coast team playing in the early east-coast time zone so that could be a factor. One other thing to note is that LA is hosting the Lions next week, Stafford’s former team. It’s not the same as coming back to Detroit of course, but it is a potential look-ahead spot. Last thing is that in the off-season this line opened at -3.5 Rams. That’s a huge adjustment since then to the current number.
Lean: NY +8
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ARZ @ CLE -3.5
The look-ahead line was -3 here so we can see the impact of the loss of Chandler Jones here. Regardless, Browns are listed as if they’re the better team here (assuming 3 for home field edge). Is that really the case? Cleveland will be without Nick Chubb, who is probably my favorite pure runner in the league. One other big factor is that Kliff Kingsbury won’t be on the sidelines as he has COVID. In addition, all of Cardinals players will be subject to daily tests. That could very well impact the game-planning here. But those are subjective factors. Objectively, Arizona has been a better team so far this season. Kyler Murray is on a same lever as Herbert, and we all saw what he did to this Cleveland defense last week. Hard to expect anything by a close game here.
Lean: ARZ +3.5
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DAL @ NE +3.5
I’m surprised to see such a short number. It’s almost as if the bookmakers are still valuing the ‘aura of the Patriots with Brady in the fold’. But let’s be real here, this team isn’t the same without Brady, and Belichick isn’t some sort of a ‘god’ capable of dominating regardless of his personnel. Matt Jones is a rookie and now he’s facing arguably the best team in the NFC. Dallas ranks top-10 on offense and on defense, with only the Cardinals doing the same so far this season. It’s one thing to beat the Jets and barely win against Houston. It’s another thing to play a dominant opponent. Sure, the Pats played the Bucs well, but those were different circumstances in Brady’s first game back in Foxborough. Cowboys are an elite team and I believe they’re under-valued here.
Lean: DAL -3.5
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LV @ DEN -4
How does a team bounce-back when they lose their coach in the fashion that Gruden departed the Raiders? Last week we saw how lifeless this squad performed against the Bears and that was at home. Now, on the road, and with emotions all over the place, just not sure how these players can get themselves to perform at a high level. The fact that this Raiders team is as mediocre as they come (there really isn’t a lot of talent on the squad) just adds to the challenge. Denver is on a 2-game losing stream themselves though this team dominated weak opponents early in the year. I think we can consider Las Vegas another ‘weak’ opponent in this matchup.
Lean: DEN -4
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SEA @ PIT -5
Geno Smith time for Seattle! The look-ahead line was SEA -2.5 so you can see how much the loss of Russell Wilson is worth here. That’s about right. The question is, can Smith play well and at least earn a cover? Hard to tell. I mean, the guy does have more career INT’s than TD’s. He hasn’t been a starting QB in 6 years so we’ll see. There’s always that chance for a short-term uptick in performance of course. At the same time, Seattle is also without Chris Carson. Typically RB’s aren’t important in my handicapping, but when you’re down a stud QB like Wilson, relying on a run-game is empirical and that part of the offense is severely hampered also. All these factors aside, let’s also not forget that Pittsburgh still has a QB who is way past his prime and a defense that isn’t as good as they were last year. Can we lay the points here? Possibly. I mean, Seattle’s defense has given up 450+ years in 4 straight games. Even Roethlisberger could move the ball on offense against this D.
Lean: PIT -5
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