As mentioned in previous teaser experiment posts, this season, I’ve been betting the NFL for several years now with limited success. Some season I’m up and some I’m down. I have concluded that the NFL is the toughest sport to bet on and consistently win at. That’s because the lines are just so damn sharp. The spread is the great equalizer and it reduces most games to a coin flip. We see it happening every week.
My solution is to take advantage of those sharp lines by playing two-team 6-point teasers. If the lines are really that sharp, and I think that they are, two-team 6-point teasers, judiciously applied, look like a reasonable way to get the best of the number. For me, this season is going to be what I call “my teaser experiment”. I’m only playing two-team 6-point teasers and betting to units on each. We’ll see how it goes.
In week 1, I used 8 different teams in 4 teasers and went 3-1 for +3.45 units Only the Bills didn’t cover the teased number.
In Week 2, I posted 3 teaser plays.
- CAR +9.5 and MIA +9.5 – L
- DEN -0 and + NE -0 – W
- CIN +7 and LV +12 – W
Only the Dolphins didn’t cover the teased number. I finished 2-1 for +1.64 units.
In Week 3, I posted 4 teaser plays.
- ARIZ -1 and CLEV -1.5 - W
- CAR -1.5 and BALT -1.5 – W
- KC -1 and DEN -3 – L The Chiefs managed to give away another winnable game.
- NO + 8.5 and MIA +9.5 – W
Through Week 3, my teasers are 8-3 for +8.56 units.
I have one additional comment and I’ve made it before. In one my posts, DELIVERYMAN3 commented “Think most books do -120 on 6 pt two teasers now so not as good .best to find -110 if possible”. He is absolutely right, -110s are still available, but they are getting harder to find. However, even at -120 my 8-3 teaser record would still leave me +7.31 units.
For Week 4, I have already bet three teasers before the lines move any more. Here they are:
- CIN -1.5 and NO -1.5
- TENN -1.5 and LA Rams -0
- GB -0.5 and TB -0.5
JAX @ CIN
I don’t really trust the Bengals, but the Jags are one of the worst teams in the league. The power ratings that I use make the Bengals an 8.5 to10 point favorite, so teasing them down to where the just have to win looks like a good bet to me.
NYG @ NO
This will be the Saints home opener. The Giants looked awful in losing to the Falcons. HC Joe Judge is already on the hot seat and there’s speculation that he may be gone sooner rather than later. My power ratings consensus makes the Saints a 7.5 to 11 point favorite, so teasing them down to where they just have to win looks good to me.
TENN @ NYJ
I don’t think much of the Titans D and that makes this one a little dicey, but I doubt that the woeful jets will be able to exploit it. The Titans can run the ball and that creates opportunities in the play action passing game. The Titan have just too much offense. My power ratings consensus makes the Titans 5 to 10 point favorites, so teasing them down to where they just have to win is the play.
ARIZ @ LA Rams
The Rams look like the real deal , but the Cards are a legitimately good team and should not be overlooked. The power rating consensus makes the Rams a 4.5 to 5.5 point favorites, so I’m teasing them to where they just have to win. My only concern here is a letdown after smashing the Buc last week. Still I think they find a way to win what could be a close game.
PITT @ GB
It certainly looks like the Steelers are in a huge decline. If anything, the OL is worse than it was last season. They can’t run and they can’t protect “Big Ben” who’s as immobile as a statue. Making matters worse their best defensive player is out. I’ll willingly take the Packers t home and tease it down to where they just have to win the game.
TB @ NE
Tom Brady returns to Foxboro. That will be the big story. To me, the Bucs just got embarrassed at the Rams. They should be in a foul mood. Think Brady and Gronk want this one? Pats can’t score. How will they keep up with Brady and Co? They won’t! I’ll gladly tease the Bucs to where they just have to win.