Pregame NFL Record – 4 Years:
399 – 334 @ 54.4% for +31.6 Units
Pregame NFL Record – 2021:
13 – 8 @ 62% for +4.2 Units
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Week 3 Plays:
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#2: Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5
#3: Los Angeles Chargers +7
#4: New Orleans Saints +3
#5: New York Giants -3
#6: Detroit Lions +7.5
#7: Chicago Bears +7.5
#8: Los Angeles Rams +1.5
#9: Minnesota Vikings +2
#10: San Francisco 49ers -3
Good Luck
Breakdowns:
CHI @ CLE +7.5
Well, it didn’t take long for the Justin Fields era to begin. With Red Rocket being declared out Fields will make his first NFL start this weekend. I’m sure Nagy was planning on holding him out until he could make a home start at Soldier Field (or is it called Soldier FieldS now?) later this season, against an easier opponent, but alas, his time is now. The look-ahead line for this one was -9.5 CLE last week, so are the bookmakers saying that Fields is 2-points better than Dalton? I think there are other factors in play here of course. The current number isn’t far off from the off-season line of CLE -7. So how will Fields perform? Well, he’ll be facing a defense that has played like one of the worst in the league so far, especially against the pass. Bears are second worst in the league in PY/A (Passing Yards per Attempt) at 4.1, but there’s really nowhere to go but up here. The Browns are going to be without Landry, and while OBJ is back this week, I’m not so sure he’ll be a full-time player in his first game of action. Bears will try to neutralize Cleveland’s run-game, and I think we could see a close exciting game here.
Lean: CHI +7.5
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ARI @ JAX +7.5
After winning a big game @ Tennessee, the Cardinals barely held on at home against the Vikings last week, as a last second – and very makeable – FG missed by inches. They’ve allowed 7.0 YPP to the Vikings and 419 yards as Chandler Jones came back down to earth a bit with zero sacks. Now going on the road again, this is a potential ‘look ahead’ spot for the Cardinals. They’re traveling to face the LA Rams next week and then hosting San Fran the week after – two big divisional games on tap. Jaguars are 0-2 SU and ATS and are hungry to get their first win of the season. Can they get it done? Jags O-line does rank #1 in the NFL in ASR (Adjusted Sack Rate), which is a key against this Arizona defense. Now if only Lawrence could play better. With almost 90% of all the tickets on the Cardinals, not many people out there think Jags have a chance. Of course, we all know that there’s a lot of value on the home-dog in this one, especially since the off-season line was -2.5 ARZ. Even the look-ahead number of -6.5 ARZ was vastly different from the current one, as it’s across a key number of 7. Home underdogs of at least 7-points are 91-59 (61%) ATS in the month of September, and there’s solid value on one here in this spot.
Lean: JAX +7.5
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LAC @ KC -7
This line opened at 7, dipped to 6.5 during the week, and is now back up again. At first glance you might be inclined to grab the points against this horrific KC defense that can’t stop anyone right now, but we have to be cautious. LA has scored 20 points on Washington a team that isn’t that good defensively this year (currently only 18th in efficiency). They mustered only 17 at home against Dallas, a team that is devastated with injuries on the defensive side of the ball and isn’t very good overall either. Herbert has been very mediocre, with a QBR of 43 with 2 TD’s and 3 INT’s on the year. Are we witnessing a bit of a sophomore slump? Chiefs are coming off a loss, and you’d expect this team to bring their A-game. Joey Bosa hasn’t practiced all week, Chris Harris Jr. is going to be out again in the secondary, and Justin Jones is out on the D-line as well. Bosa is questionable but might not be 100% even if he suits up. KC will be without Clark and potentially also without Jones, making their porous D-line even weaker. The question here is, can Herbert and Co. step up finally and play a complete offensive game? Chiefs are like 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games so….
Lean: LAC +7
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WAS @ BUF -7
This line opened at -9.5 BUF and with almost 60% of the wagers on them, the line has seen a substantial shift. The current number is much closer to the off-season line of -7.5. So, what gives? Washington has had 10-days to rest and prepare for this one. I also think that Heinicke (or is it Heineke?) has shown to be much more competent than most expected. Bills have dominated defensively so far, but they’ve faced two poor offensive teams in PIT and MIA. Washington with Heinicke isn’t that much better though, so we could see another strong showing here. I think this one will come down to how well Washington’s D plays against the Bills’ offense. Last week this defense made Daniel Jones look like a ‘superstar’. If Josh Allen performs anywhere close to what he displayed last season (he hasn’t yet this year), Bills will run away with this one. Obviously, some really sharp money out there believes that Washington can keep this close, though trusting Heinicke on the road, against one of the AFC contenders, is a tough thing to do…especially at a number that is 2.5 points lower than the opener.
Lean: BUF -7
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IND @ TEN -5.5
Oh, the battle of two under-achievers. Both the Colts and the Titans were supposed to compete for playoff spots this year, but both look to be very lucky to play in the same division as Houston and Jacksonville. One will get in of course, but neither looks like a ‘playoff-caliber’ squad in the early going. I guess the potential edge here is to the ‘more desperate’ team as Colts are 0-2 while the Titans needed a huge comeback at Seattle to pull off an improbable win in OT. Then again, you’d be backing a team with a mediocre QB in Wentz who is dealing with sprains to both of his ankles – you can’t make this stuff up. With almost 80% of the tickets on the home team, clearly most folks believe it’s an easy cover for the Titans. The problem is that even with a run-heavy gameplan, not sure Tennessee can stop this Indy offense. On the other side, can we expect an efficient outing from Henry after 41 touches last week? Still, the offensive firepower is there for Tennessee and with the way Colts have been playing defense this year, the Titans could potentially run away with it. One key factor for Indy is that Xavier Rhodes practiced in full on Friday and will make his season-debut. That greatly elevates this D. All in all, the line value is on the visitors. The look-ahead number was -3.5 TEN and the off-season early line was -1 Indy. Though expecting Wentz to finish the whole game is a concern here.
Lean: IND +5.5
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CIN @ PIT -3
The bookmakers are saying that we have two evenly-matched teams here if you take away 3-points for home edge. After the way the Steelers have played so far this year, I’m not surprised. Of course, injuries have a lot to do with this line opening at -4.5 PIT and now down to a FG. TJ Watt is out with a groin injury. Steelers’ top wideout, Diontae Johnson, is also out. But above all else, Roethlisberger has a pectoral injury. Sure, he’ll play, but it’s causing him discomfort. Roethlisberger has already lost a lot of ‘juice’ in his arm, so this, plus a loss of Johnson, will severely limit big plays for this offense. On the other side, Cincy is without Tee Higgins, which is also a significant loss. This offense has looked mediocre even with him in the lineup so far this season. Obviously, Watt’s absence is huge, but trusting them on the road is still pretty tough. In the off-season this line was -6 PIT, look ahead was -7, and of course the opener (before key players were ruled out) was -4.5. It doesn’t happen often, but line value is on the home favorite in this one.
Lean: PIT -3
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NO @ NE -3
The Saints went from absolutely destroying Green Bay in week 1, to getting demolished themselves @ Carolina last week. Based on this trend, I guess we should expect a 45-0 shellacking of the Pats this week. If only it was this easy… Green Bay’s pass-D ranks 26th so far in this young season, while Carolina is #1. Do you know who #2 is? You guessed it, it’s the Patriots. Combined that with a #5 ranked pass-rush, and this is a type of defense you prefer to avoid when backing a QB like Jameis Winston, especially on the road. It’s important to remember that NE has faced Miami and NYJ, two of the worst offenses in the league, thus we need to be careful about considering them an ‘elite D’ just yet. Saints aren’t impressive offensively either, but they should be a step-up at least in quality, and most definitely in coaching. Saints themselves are sporting a top-5 defensive unit, and we have a rookie QB starting for the Patriots. One key factor here is that Marshon Lattimore is back after sitting out last week. He was an absolute monster in week 1 against Green Bay, so things just got really difficult for Mac Jones in this one. Offensively, Saints will once again be without Erik McCoy, their starting center. They had several communication issues along their O-line last week, but I’d imagine another week of practice should yield improvement on that front. The real issue is that if Belichick takes away Kamara (as he tends to do…take away opponent’s best player), who is going to step up and make plays for this offense? The off-season line was -1 NO and the look-ahead number was PK. Clearly the number is a tad juiced up after last week’s showings by both teams. Plus, let’s be honest here, while we all know that Belichick conveys to the world that he takes “one game at a time approach”, are we all 100% sure he’s not at least slightly peeking ahead a bit to next week, when his old pupil Tommy-B comes back to town?
Lean: NO +3
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ATL @ NYG -3
What is going on with Matt Ryan? He’s averaging 5.7 YPA, has a 2:3 TD:INT ratio, and has a QBR of 29. Out of the least efficient QB’s in the league so far this year, Ryan is the only one that isn’t either a rookie – Wilson, Lawrence – or a second year underperformer – Tagovailoa and Burrow. Now he’ll be without his #2 WR, as Russell Gage is out. Giants have had 10-days to rest and prepare for this one. Both teams are coming off really bad losses and both are 0-2. I’m not really sure why 65% of the tickets are on the Falcons, as New York to me has shown to be a better team so far. If Daniel Jones plays the way he played at Washington and Saquon Barkley is finally ready to be unleashed, this could be another long day for Ryan and Co. Falcons will be without their #1 CB – AJ Terrell – as he’s out with a concussion, while NY is getting Evan Engram to a lineup with several solid receiving options already.
Lean: NYG -3
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BAL @ DET +7.5
Could you say a ‘let down’ spot for the Ravens? What an epic comeback and win @ Kansas City last week, as you could really see how much it meant for everyone on that team to get that win, as the emotions really spilled out onto the field. Sometimes teams come out a tad flat after a performance like that. To make matters worse, Baltimore has a COVID outbreak and players like Justin Houston (LB), Brandon Williams (T), and Jaylon Ferguson (DE) are out. Remember, this is a team that already has a ton of injuries to key personnel. In addition, Lamar Jackson missed a practice this week with a ‘stomach bug’. Remember, he’s unvaccinated, and has already had COVID once, so there’s always a risk for him to catch “something” again. Detroit was winning at halftime on Monday against the Packers, before completely falling apart in the second half (outscored 21 to 0). Can they sustain their effort for a full-60 minutes in this one? Ravens’ injuries plus an expected decline in efficiency, might be enough to at least get a cover in this one.
Lean: DET +7.5
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MIA @ LVR -3.5
This line opened at -5.5 LVR and with 75% of the bets on them, the number dropped a full 2-points. Now that’s some Reverse Line Movement (RLM) effect. With Tua Tagovailoa going on IR, Jacoby Brissett will be the starter in this one. Remember, Brissett was a starter at Indianapolis for majority of both 2017 (59% C%; 6.6 PY/A; 13-7 TD/INT ratio) and 2019 (61% C%; 6.6 PY/A; 18-6 TD/INT ratio) seasons. He’s a game-manager type and won’t ‘wow anyone’, but knows how to play the game. And with Will Fuller coming back in this one, Brissett will have the full supporting cast in play – Fuller, Parker, Waddle, Gaskin, and Gesicki. And in all honesty, this could be an improvement, as Tagovailoa ranks dead last in QBR in the NFL. Miami is coming off a 35-0 shellacking at Buffalo, and typically teams with ‘playoff aspirations’ such as this one, should be expected to bounce back and step up their level of effort. Vegas, on the other hand, is the surprise team of the season so far. They’re 2-0 after beating both Baltimore and Pittsburgh to start out the season. This is an interesting spot though, as they’re coming off a huge upset win @ PIT, only to travel to LA to face the Chargers on Monday night next week. This week’s game against Miami is a typical ‘sandwich’ spot. And after two upset wins to start out the year, one can’t help but think that Vegas is a tad overrated as well. The off-season line was PK for this game and the look-ahead number was -1 LVR (that’s preceding the prior-mentioned shellacking the ‘Fins experienced in Buffalo). Dolphins have a strong pass-D and a potentially rejuvenated offense coming into this one. I think this RLM makes a lot of sense as this is a strong situational spot for the underdog.
Lean: MIA +3.5
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NYJ @ DEN -10.5
Broncos were -5.5 in the off-season and -9 in the look-ahead spot, so the line is all you need to know where the value lies. This team beat NYG by 14 and Jags by 10 to start out the season, both games on the road. Sure 2-0 is nice, but those wins aren’t impressive. They host the Ravens next week in the first ‘real’ game of the season, so this could potentially be a look-ahead spot. Of course, it’s hard to back the Jets, even with the inflated number. Wilson has really struggled in the first two games, ranking as the least efficient QB in the league so far. He’ll once again be without Jamison Crowder, who is yet to suit up this season. Playing in Denver, against a tough D, and missing key players (tackle Mekhi Becton is on IR already), just hard to see Wilson all of a sudden live up to his potential. Then again, this is the NFL after all.
Lean: DEN -10.5
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TBB @ LAR +1.5
This is the premier game of the week as we have two NFC contenders facing off against one another. Of course, the big “elephant in the room” here is that next week Tom Brady will be making his return to Foxborough for the very first time since leaving New England. That hasn’t stopped the Tampa money from coming in (65% of the wagers) as the line moved from -2 LAR to +1.5 now – a monster jump. Is it warranted? I’m not so sure. Bucs barely beat Dallas in week 1, a team with an allegedly poor defense. They also were up 28-25 on a bad Falcons team going into the 4th quarter last week. A pair of pick-6’s at the end of that quarter made the final margin much larger, but it’s not like Tampa was dominating throughout. Their pass-D is middle-of-the-pack so far and they lost Sean Murphy-Bunting in week 1. To make matters worse, Jason Pierre-Paul is out for this one, which impacts their pass-rush. Offensively, Bucs will be without Antonio Brown. Sure, they have a lot of depth there, but with Ramsay manning the slot and picking up Godwin on most plays, it’s much easier to defend two additional difference-makers in Evans and Gronk, as opposed to three if AB suited up. This 4th ranked Rams pass-D is very capable of slowing down this Bucs attack, especially at home. In any case, matchups aside, I believe there’s line value on the home dog here and you have to like the spot as well.
Lean: LAR +1.5
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SEA @ MIN +2
The Vikings were oh so close to a 2-0 start coming into their home-opener this week. This is a desperate team as going down 0-3 and with Cleveland on deck, just not a good spot to be in. Seattle is also coming off a heartbreak, as the team has a win-expectancy of 95% in the 4th quarter while up 14 points, only to allow the Titans to score 17 unanswered points and win the game in OT. Playing in an extremely competitive division, Seahawks can’t afford losses like that, so I’d expect an added sense of urgency coming into this matchup. Expect both teams to be focused here. I’m not really sure why over 70% are on the road favorites though. Vikings were listed as -1.5 in the offseason, and I think we see a strong effort out of them. While Anthony Barr is still out, Everson Griffen and Eric Kendricks will be back for this one. On the other side, Seattle’s D was on the field for 83 plays last week, getting gashed by Henry repeatedly. Cook didn’t practice, but he’s expected to play. Even if he’s splitting carries with Mattison, I’d expect Minnesota to have success offensively. This one could come down to the wire again, kind of like the matchup between the two squads last year did (27-26 Seattle win)
Lean: MIN +2
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GB @ SF -3
This line opened at -3.5, and with about 50/50 in betting, shifted down to -3 now. Green Bay got destroyed against New Orleans in week 1 and was losing to Detroit at home at halftime on Monday Night. 49ers, on the other hand, have had two strong efforts, both on the road (@ DET and @ PHI) and will be looking to make a statement here in their home opener. What could be a big factor is that Green Bay’s left-tackle, Elgton Jenkins, is out. He was starting for David Bakhtiari, so the Packers could be down to a third stringer here. Not an ideal scenario coming off a short-week, being on the road, and facing Nick Bosa on that side. We know that Packers’ D can’t stop anyone, so this could very well be the defining matchup in this game.
Lean: SF -3
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