475 Washington (+9) over Buffalo
I think the oddsmakers are saying there’s a drop off from Ryan Fitzpatrick to Taylor Heinicke based on this opening line and I disagree. Heinicke started 3 games last year and played pretty well in their playoff game against the Super Bowl champs. With a quarterback carousel last year Washington had a 64.9 passing grade from PFF and so far this year they have a 64.2 passing grade and Heinicke does a great job of targeting Terry McLaurin. Josh Allen had a top 5 QB season last year but he’s off to a slow start dealing with some top defenses and he’ll see another one in Washington. Also Buffalo had one of the better offensive lines in pass blocking from last year but so far this year they’re tied for the 2nd to last worst grade and Washington has a top 10 pass rush grade defensive line.
477 Saints (+3) over Patriots
The Saints were coming off a big upset win over the Packers plus dealing with practicing and moving to different locations because of Hurricane Idaho I thought that was a perfect spot for a letdown last week. Now I think this is a great spot to back them again as good coach teams coming off embarrassing losses play with some motivation. Also Alvin Kamara who’s one of the best running backs in the league was held to just 5 rushing yards on 8 carries and I don’t see that happening again. Mac Jones has looked good so far but it shouldn’t be much of a surprise because he was labeled as the most pro ready QB in the draft and the Patriots haven’t really needed much out of him in their first two games but he may need to do more this game as the Saints have a top 5 rush defense grade so far and could get their best cornerback back this week in Marshon Lattimore.
479 Chargers (+6.5) over Chiefs
The Cowboys came away with the win last week over the Chargers but the Chargers have to come away from that game thinking they should’ve won as they had 2 touchdowns called back because of penalties in the 2nd half. Also going back to last year Justin Herbert showed that he had the talent to compete against the Chiefs as they lost by 3 in overtime and probably should’ve won their first matchup. The Chiefs are super talented but they’re just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 regular season games and their coming off a SU loss. The Chargers weapons are healthy and should be able to put up enough points to stay within the number in a game I’m thinking could turn into a shootout.
482 Giants (-3) over Falcons
The Giants are 0-2 but should be 1-1 if it weren’t for a dumb penalty committed at the end of last weeks game against Washington. Daniel Jones was the bright spot coming out of that game as he had a 68.4 QBR and through 2 weeks the Giants have a 85.4 passing grade which ranks 2nd so their should plenty of opportunities against this Falcons secondary who has been torched by the Eagles and Buccaneers as they have a coverage grade less than 50 which ranks bottom 5 in the league and a drop off from their 54.7 grade last season. Giants also opened as the 3 point favorite but their getting less than 50% of the ticket so I’ll play against the public dog Falcons as I think the Giants are the better team in this spot.
483 Bears (+7) over Browns
Really like the Bears in this spot especially if Justin Fields gets his first start of the season which sounds like he will according to the recent reports on Andy Dalton. Fields just adds an element to the Bears offense that Dalton just can’t and even though the Bears fans have been calling for Fields to take over the job since preseason it seems like the players want Fields in their also. On his first rushing touchdown in Week 1 the whole offense ran to him and celebrated his first touchdown with him which shows to me that he’s won over the locker room as a leader and playmaker for his team and i think he’ll have opportunities to take advantage of this Browns defense that has a lot of popular names put haven’t shown much improvement from last years group giving up 27 PPG in the first 2 weeks while one of those games coming against the Texans with Tyrod Taylor missing majority of that game.