This was originally posted in Harry's thread, but I see he deleted it............. I'm guessing because he was embarrassed by his simpleton answer.
Try this one instead by someone (not me) who had the winner last year at 20-1 odds.
"Some of the offshore books have posted odds on this. The first thing you can do is take Bill Belichick off the list, followed by John Harbaugh, Andy Reid, Pete Carroll, Sean Payton, Sean McVay, Mike Vrabel, Mike Tomlin, Matt LaFleur, Kevin Stefanski, and Sean McDermott. Any one of those guys could go 0-17 and they wouldn't be fired.
Also, even if one of those guys did stumble mightily, it's highly improbable that they would be fired before the end of the season, and whoever wins this wager is someone who will likely be fired mid-season.
You can probably eliminate all of this year's first year head coaches too. While an occasional first year head coach will get fired at the end of the season - Steve Wilks, Rob Chudzinski, and Jim Mora, Jr. come to mind - I've never known one to get fired in mid-season. Firing a first-year head coach in the middle of his first season would be cold. Although I do remember first-year head coach Bobby Petrino quitting before the season was over.
Now you may have noticed that I didn't include Bruce Arians in the first group above. That's because the fine print on some these wagers specifies the winner will be the first head coach to be fired or resign. Arians could develop health issues and call it quits. So could Washington's Ron Rivera. So keep that in mind. At odds of 250/1, Arians is worth throwing ten bucks on. If he has to resign, that's a quick $2,500. Just make sure the rules at your book state first to get fired or resign.
So with everyone we've eliminated so far, these are the most eligible suspects:
Mike McCarthy 15/2
Vic Fangio 8/1
Matt Nagy 17/2
Jon Gruden 10/1
Mike Zimmer 11/1
Kliff Kingsbury 11/1
Zac Taylor 11/1
Matt Rhule 16/1
Brian Flores 25/1
Frank Reich 25/1
Kyle Shanahan 25/1
Ron Rivera 28/1
Joe Judge 40/1
Bruce Arians 250/1
Jerry Jones learned the hard way about canning coaches in mid-season when he foolishly fired Wade Phillips and replaced him with The Clapper. I don't think he'll make the same mistake twice by firing Mike McCarthy until the season's over. Also, with Dak Prescott back, the team doesn't look like they'll struggle this year.
Jon Gruden is close with owner Mark Davis. If he gets fired, it will probably be at the end of the season.
Brian Flores won ten games last year and he's a personal favorite of owner Stephen Ross. Like Gruden, if he gets fired it will likely be at the end of the season.
Frank Reich, Kyle Shanahan, Ron Rivera and Joe Judge all appear unlikely to get fired until the season's over. It's just not in the policy of their team's owners. Although, Rivera does have those aforementioned health issues.
Here's our list now:
Vic Fangio 8/1
Matt Nagy 17/2
Mike Zimmer 11/1
Kliff Kingsbury 11/1
Zac Taylor 11/1
Matt Rhule 16/1
Ron Rivera 28/1 (health)
Bruce Arians 250/1 (health)
Denver fired Josh McDaniels in the middle of his second year back in 2010. But they went two complete years with Vance Joseph. Denver opens with an easy schedule vs. the Giants, Jaguars and Jets. Plus, their defense is strong enough to keep them in games and Vic Fangio is well respected. If he's fired, it will probably be at the end of the season.
Carolina Panthers owner David Tepper made a big deal about signing Matt Rhule with a seven-year, $62 million deal and the understanding that it would take a couple of years to rebuild the team. If Tepper fired Rhule before the season was over, it would be publicizing his own mistake. His ego won't allow that. Plus, year three has been the charm for Rhule during his college years. He's not likely to get fired before that.
Here's our list now:
Matt Nagy 17/2
Mike Zimmer 11/1
Kliff Kingsbury 11/1
Zac Taylor 11/1
Ron Rivera 28/1 (health)
Bruce Arians 250/1 (health)
Looking back on some recent coaches that were fired in mid-season, many of them had gruff personalities that may have contributed to their demise. Rex Ryan, Bill O'Brien, Matt Patricia, Todd Haley ... they all fit that bill. In 2021, I would lump Matt Nagy and Mike Zimmer with them.
Negative press also plays a part. Last season, Dan Quinn, Bill O'Brien and Matt Patricia all had negative press going for them before the year began. This year, Matt Nagy, Mike Zimmer, Kliff Kingsbury and Zac Taylor all have negative press entering the season.
Another common factor for coaches fired in mid-season is their habit of jettisoning their team's best players. Bill O'Brien, Matt Patricia and Chip Kelly all did that. None of the coaches on our remaining list have done that, however, Matt Nagy dumped quarterback Mitch Trubisky in favor of Andy Dalton. That might not sound like a big deal, but bear in mind that Nagy is 25-13 SU and 20-18 ATS in the regular season with Trubisky, and 3-7 SU and 4-6 ATS without him. Also, Kliff Kingsbury got rid of running back Kenyan Drake and cornerback Patrick Peterson, and Cincinnati has been ridding the team of its veteran players since Taylor arrived.
Finally, before a team fires their head coach they should have an interim replacement in mind. Chicago has several assistant coaches that could step in and lead the team, including Bill Lazor."
Add in all up and I'm thinking either Matt Nagy, Kliff Kingsbury or Zac Taylor will be the first head coach fired this season.