In all likelihood these will be my last bets. My overall game plan was to create positive EV by betting early and deciphering information. Although I have changed my views on some picks, overall l am happy with my portfolio. To this point, the odds on my posted bets have moved in my favor on all of them except for maybe 3 picks. In hindsight, I wish I would have waited on investing so much so early on the #3 pick. Best of luck to anyone that is following along at the end of the day there are only a select few people who truly know what will happen for each team. There will certainly be some trades and surprises that have a domino effect on the rest of the draft. Should be a lot of fun!
New bets today...
Exact picks #1 T. Lawrence, #2 Z Wilson, #3 Mac Jones #4 Kyle Pitts (+165) 1u to win 1.65U
Exact picks #3. Mac Jones #4. Kyle Pitts #5. Ja'Marr Chase (+275) 0.5U to win 1.37U
Exact picks #3. Trey Lance #4. Kyle Pitts #5. Ja'Marr Chase (+1100) 0.05U to win 0.55U (a small amount of insurance in case its Lance over Jones)
Some quick thoughts on who I think goes where as of today...
#1 T. Lawrence
#2 Z Wilson
#3 Mac Jones *I’ve come full circle on this one; People that have had a very good track record have gone on the record to say it will be Jones and I trust their opinion more than mine.
#4 Kyle Pitts *I’ve written in more detail about this pick before but I simply think Pitts is a rare player that they simply can’t pass up here. I don’t see them trading back and taking a chance on missing Pitts.
#5. J Chase *A chance another team trades up for Fields/Lance...If they keep the pick I LOVE Chase to be the guy.
#6 J Waddle *Also a chance another team trades up for Fields/Lance...if they keep the pick I think it’s Waddle. But it’s certainly possible for them to trade back and still get him.
#7 Justin Fields *This could be the Lions pick but I really feel like the Lions will trade back here. They have Goff (for better or for worse) for at least two years. New coach. New GM. Trade back and get some picks. The big question is who trades up?
#8 Panthers could take a QB here...not committing to Darnold on his 5th year option at this point is interesting. Could also look at offensive tackle or trade back...no strong feeling here.
#9 I believe Broncos will take a QB if someone falls or if the top 5 QB’s are gone they will take a offensive tackle. I don’t get the feeling they want to trade up.
#10 Dallas - Looks like CB is strong possibility here but I’d be curious what they would do if Sewell/Slater is also available here.
#11 Giants - Not sure what they will do here but I don’t think they pick a WR which seems to be the odds on favorite. If I could, I would bet the “NO” on WR selected. They have 3 good WR’s, including heavily investing in Kenny Golladay this offseason. They also have a solid TE and RB that can catch passes. Just doesn't make sense to me to invest so much draft capital in another WR.
Overall summary of bets are listed below....
Jaylen Waddle drafted Under 12.5, 1U to win 0.9U
Trey Lance to be for #3 overall pick, 0.5U to win1.45U
Mac Jones drafted over 6.5, 2U to win 2.2U (+110)
Jamarr Chase Under 6.5 1U to win 0.9U (-110)
Justin Fields #3 overall pick 0.5U to win 1.25U (+275)
Justin Fields under 4.5 draft position 1u to win 0.9U (-110)
CB Jaycee Horn to be first defensive player drafted 0.5U to win 3.5U (+700)
Falcons to select a TE with there first pick 0.5 to win 0.75U (+150)
Bengals to select a WR with 1st pick 1u to win 1.25 (+125)
Patriots to select a defensive player with their first pick 0.5 units to win 0.75 (+150)
Denver Broncos to select Trey Lance 0.5 to win 1.5U (+300)
Steelers first pick will be offensive lineman 0.5 to win 0.8U (+160)
Cowboys to select CB with first pick 0.5U to win 0.5U (EVEN)
Jaylen Waddle to get drafted by Dolphins .25U to win 1.5U (+600)
J. Waddle to be drafted ahead of D. Smith 0.5U to win 0.45U (-110)
Mac Jones to go #3 Overall 1u to win 1.05u (+105)
Bengals to select a WR with their 1st pick 1u to win 1.2 (+120) *2nd Bet*
Chicago Bears to draft a QB with the first pick .2U to win .8U (+400)
Las Vegas Raiders to select a QB with the first pick 0.1U to win 10U (+1000)
Kansas City Chiefs first draft pick to be a safety 0.2U to win 6.6U (+3300)
Exact picks #1 T. Lawrence, #2 Z Wilson, #3 Mac Jones #4 Kyle Pitts (+165) 1u to win 1.65U
Exact picks #3. Mac Jones #4. Kyle Pitts #5. Ja'Marr Chase (+275) 0.5U to win 1.37U
Exact picks #3. Trey Lance #4. Kyle Pitts #5. Ja'Marr Chase (+1100) 0.05U to win 0.55U