KC CHIEFS -170
I looked at every possible way to take the Bucs plus the 3.5, but I am concerned that even if the game is close it will be more than a FG win for the Chiefs. I made the mistake of betting against Mahomes in last year's super bowl, and in the AFC title game, and it takes just a few minutes to make you wish you hadnt, even when things are looking good for the other side! The Bills built a 9-0 lead, then surrendered a score to KC, and when they punted on the following drive after a critical drop, I immediately said to myself, "this is over."
Theyre the only team I have ever felt that way about, even the greatest show on turf or the Manning Colts didnt instill the same amount of confidence in their offenses. You just know that at just about any given moment they can hit the 20 yard pass to Kelce, the 12 yard scramble by the QB, the 60 yard sweep to Hill who is the fastest, slipperiest player I have ever seen. You worry about them having no run game, but then when they hand off youre feeling like its a wasted snap when you have Mahomes behind center.
Enough about the KC offense, we all know how good they are, looking at the Tampa offense, they're a far more balanced attack with the emergence of Leonard Fournette in recent games with Ronald Jones also getting some run. They have a talented group of receivers themselves, and will have Antonio Brown back for this one which cant be underrated. Brown is going for his first super bowl title after playing on a competitive Steelers team so many years that came up short. Brown has the trust of Brady, and clearly that aspect of the Bucs passing game was missing in the NFC Championship, he was seen a few times jawing at his receivers.
Heres my takeaway from the NFC Championship game... The Bucs were outgained 381-351, had a 9 minute deficiency in TOP, lost the turnover battle 3-2, and gave up 8 of 14 3rd downs... so what happened? Matt Lafleur crapped himself in his first "big" game, the Packers gave up a crushing hail mary TD at the end of the first half, they failed on 1st and goal from the 6, and 1st and goal from the 8 when they famously kicked a FG down 8 with 2 mins left, and Tompa, to their credit, converted an even higher percentage of 3rd downs (9-14), and their 1 4th down attempt which led to the hail mary, we wont even get into the officiating, as we all know by now that on a Rodgers INT late in 1H there was a clear holding call that caused the turnover.
The Packers were the better team IMO, they simply had a murphy's law game, while the Bucs had so many things go right. The Chiefs are a step up in competition, they have no offensive weaknesses, they can do just enough on defense, they play with a supreme confidence, very loose, and are a reflection of their hall of fame coach, which is another area I think they have an advantage. Arians is a fine offensive mind, but Tom Brady is the coach of the Bucs, Reid is coaching at the highest level in the NFL, even surpassing Belichick this year. What KC did to Buffalo last week was astonishing to me, as I thought Buffalo was as good or better than KC, my mistake, I wont make it again. If I lose with Patrick Mahomes behind center I can accept it. If I bet against him and I'm watching the KC speed show run wide open all over the field midway through the first quarter and already know its over I will regret it for 6 months. I am rolling with the best team we have seen in quite some time.
KANSAS CITY 32 TAMPA BAY 24