Rams TT Under 20.5 (-138) – Not widely available (Avail on FoxBet)
[Under 19.5 -105 is widely available] - For the sake of the post let's call this the # I'm giving out
I really prefer laying the juice at 20.5 but if I was only able to get the 19.5 I’d make a play on that.
+Rams have only surpassed 20 pts scored in three of their last seven games. In that span they were held 20 pts or under by SF, NYJ, SEA, ARI – no stellar defenses.
+GB has only allowed 19.5 ppg to opponents when playing at home this year. 15.3 in the L3 games.
+Everyone is talking about Ramsey vs Devante today, but Jaire Alexander is the #1 rated CB in PFF this year. He will likely take away one side of the field today, typically the side that Woods lines up on.
+This leaves pressure on a hobbled Cooper Kupp who did not practice one day this week to make up for that production.
+Goff’s struggles in cold weather are known. 0-5 ATS in temps 45 degrees and under. -5.13 margin in those games. His teams have scored (10, 3, 27, 23, 6 in those games…an avg of 13.8)
+The Rams run game isn’t good enough to exploit Green Bay’s suspect run defense in a way that takes over the game.
+GB only allows 5.9 YPPass at home. Only two teams rank higher (CLE and LAR). And the CLE stats were affected due to 3 home games with heavy wind that all but eliminated passing in those games. So essentially GB’s pass defense, when playing at home, is tops in the league along side the Rams
+Goff’s thumb is still a major question mark. I personally felt that about a quarter of his throws last week seemed to be affected. He even looked a little cautious handing the ball off. Sure, one week could make a huge difference, it’s possible. But he’s coming off thumb surgery on his throwing hand and about to play in 30 degree weather where its not always easy to grip the ball (on top of his already noted struggles in the cold without thumb issues)
+Rams have been struggling to move the ball with any kind of real success lately (well really all season). They rank #23 in 1st downs per play at .318 and in their L3 games that number is a paltry .264 which is 2nd last in the league over that time. (Only behind Seattle who they just beat)
+GB is strong is the redzone on defense, ranking #8 in the league. (FWIW – This doesn’t affect this bet but the Rams RedZone defense is night and day home vs away. The Rams allow their opponents to score TDs once they enter the RedZone at the WORST rate in the league – allowing opponents to score a TD on 91.3% of their RZ opportunities.
+This will be one of the best offenses that LAR will face all year. Offense trumps defense nowadays and this tick up in competition I also think will help keep their offense off the field. GB is more equipped than most teams to move the chains and keep control of possession and clock against this vaunted Rams D.
+When it nears freezing temps, it does seem to affect the distance in which kickers are able to convert from. They use the K balls for kicking and I believe they’re kept warm. But still, kicking in the cold, imo, still seems to have an impact. There’s nothing in the kicking game that’s going against me here, and there is a chance that the weather could increase the difficulty making FGs, so I’ll consider this an extra possible edge that I have in my back pocket.
All these things point to it being a major struggle for the Rams to score. Considering Rodgers is the best QB at protecting the ball this year, I’d like to think I can avoid the back breaking defensive TD as well.
I really really really prefer to have that # of 20 or 20.5, but Under 19.5 is absolutely still playable.
Hope I'm a help.