This game is much harder for me to get a feel for than the Titans game last week. I was 90% confident the Ravens would have no issues last week. This week feels like a pure coin toss.
On one side of the ball, you have historically good rushing attack going against a bad rush defense (Buffalo ranks 20th, allowing 120+ rush yards per game). The Ravens attack the entire field on the ground. They can use LJ, JK, or Gus Edwards to go up the middle or attack the edges. They don't do any one thing well in the ground game, they do it all well. I know, I know - Stack the box, clog the middle of the field, force Lamar to throw outside, he sucks, he cant throw, he's a running back. Whatever. He is the best athlete on the field, every week, and he can throw well enough to make the passes he needs to make (12/15 127 yards when throwing outside vs Titans). He doesn't need to throw for 300 yards a game. He will take a play where the defense is perfect and turn it into a 50 yard scramble TD. That is something that can't be discounted, but, it is discounted every week.
On the other side, Josh Allen has taken off this year. Crazy what 1 year and a true #1 WR can do for a QB. We have the Bills and their 3rd ranked pass offense vs the Ravens #6 pass defense. I said in the Titans game, Humphrey, Peters, Smith are the best CB trio in the NFL, and I stand by that (when they are all healthy, which they are now for the first time in 2 months). I think they will slow down this pass offense a bit. Not completely - Allen and the Bills offense is too good to be stopped - But I think they can be slowed down. On the surface, it feels like a win for the Ravens, but the Ravens rely A TON on Man coverage and exotic blitzes (They lead the NFL in Blitz rate and are top 10 in man coverage rate). Allen just so happens to dice up Man coverage and blitzes (Allen is 3rd in EPA vs 5 or more rushers, ). Last season, the Ravens were able to rattle Allen with blitzes and held him to 17/39 for 146 yds. But, he is MUCH better this year, so that doesn't have much relevance. I expect the ravens in mix in more zone this week, but they are still going to try to blitz him enough with disguised coverages to cause confusion.
So - This is tough. Strength on strength. As I said, the Bills will make their plays. The Ravens defense just has to make some as well.
The last thing to consider is the weather. There is going to be some snowfall, but my bigger concern is the winds. How will 10-20 MPH winds affect the downfield passing game? Will there be enough snow accumulation to give Ravens RBs issues with their cuts? I tend to think the winds will favor the Ravens running game, but weather is hard to predict. Keep an eye out to see if this total drops before kickoff as the public liked to bet under in snow games.
When a game is this evenly matched up, I lean towards the points. And, the fact that everyone is on the Bills, makes me feel good about the Ravens in this spot as well.
The Plays:
Ravens +3 (B+.5) -119
Ravens ML +127
Marqueise Brown OVER 56.5 yds -114
Tease: Packers Pk / Ravens +8.5