For what it’s worth, Wild Card weekend was going really well, that is until we hit the Sunday night game in Pittsburgh. Then, in less than 15 minutes of some the of worst football that I have ever seen, it all went to hell. That one game, combined with my own stupidity, cost me a profitable week. I finished -1.5 units for the week. That left me +36.78 units for the season. I'll take that, but is was still hugely disappointing.
I used four favorites, the Bills, Bucs, Saints and Steelers, in a round robin of six, two-team six-point teasers. I knew that the odds going in weren’t in my favor. The only way I would make a profit was if all four won. If only three won, I would lose a little. I’m guessing that would not be considered a strong bet. I considered additional bets, but I’m not good at totals and the two ATS bets that I liked the most, Ravens-3.5 and Steelers -4, would have split. I decided the teasers were the strongest bets, even having to win all four, so I put 3 units on each teaser. I really thought that all four teams had a good chance of winning, but the Steelers crapped the bed in a game that they should have won. The five turnovers absolutely killed them and killed any hopes that I had of turning a profit.
As for my stupidity, that story goes back to the 2019 World Series. I was having a very good MLB season and I had a series bet on the Astros. Going into Game 7, with the series tied 3-3, a forum member (I think it was ApacheJohn) asked m if I was planning to hedge my bet by taking the Nats in Game 7. Hedging had never entered my mind, but the more I thought about it, the more sense it made. Either way, I would lock in a small profit. It was a “no-brainer”, so I did it and it paid off as the Nats won Game 7 and the series. You’d think that I would have leaned something from that experience, but apparently I didn’t and it cost me Sunday night.
With the Bills, Bucs and Saints already in the bag, the smart move would have been to hedge my three Steeler dependant bets by betting the Browns ML for 3 units). That would have locked in a profit either way. If the Steelers won, I win 12 units instead of the 15 that I would have won with just the teasers. However, if the Browns won, I would still be up 1 unit instead of down 1.5. I feel like an damned idiot. How could I have completely missed something so obvious? That’s a mistake a real pro would never make. I guess I have no one to blame except for the guy looking back at me in the mirror.
Now, let’s move on to this week’s games and try to be a little smarter. Here’s the early card:
Two-team 6-point Teasers
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Team #1
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Team #2
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Odds
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Units
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GB -1
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BALT +8.5
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-120
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2
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GB -1
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KC -4
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-120
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2
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BALT +8.5
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KC -4
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-120
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2
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ATS Plays
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GB -6.5
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-107
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1
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LA Rams @ GB
Yesterday, there was one game and one team that I immediately fell in love with. The game was the Rams @ the Packers, and the team was the Packers. This line opened Packers -6.5 and quickly moved to -7. My power ratings say that the Packers should be a 3.5 to 7 point favorite, so at -7 the Packers were an obvious teaser candidate.
The Packers closed the season with six straight wins. QB Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have played in four NFC title games, all on the road. This season, the Packers made it very clear how badly they wanted the #1 seed and the home field advantage that went with it. The Packers averaged a league leading 31.8 PPG and 389 YPG (rank #5)
RBs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon give the Packers a solid running game going into the playoffs. They combined for 1,346 rushing yards and 5.4 YPC. Dillon, in particular, is a power runner built for January in Green Bay. The Packers averaged 132.4 rushing YPG (rank #8) and 4.8 YPC (rank #7).
The Packers also possess an elite passing attack. They averaged 256 passing YPG (rank #9) and 7.8 YPA (rank #2). Rodgers is having an MVP season, completing a league leading 70.7% of his passes with 8.2 YPA (rank #3), a league leading 121.5 QBR and 48 TDs with just 5 picks.
The Rams have a formidable defense that is gave up just 18.1 PPG and 281.9 YPG (both league bests). They are very good against both the run and the pass. The Rams are allowing just 91.2 rushing YPG and 3.8 YPC (both ranked #3). Their pass D is giving up just 190.7 passing YPG and 5.6 YPA (both ranked #1) and allowing a 63.2% completion rate (rank #8). The Rams could give Rodgers more problems than he’s used to, but I doubt that they can completely shut him down. Rodgers is just that good.
On the flip side, the Rams offense is nowhere near as formidable as their defense. They are averaging 377 YPG (rank #11I) but only 23.2 PPG (rank #23).
One thing that the Rams can do offensively is run the ball. They averaged 126.1 rushing YPG (rank #10), but a mediocre 4.3 YPC (rank #17). The Rams ran for 164 yards against the Seahawks last week and they’ll need to run effectively again this week to have any chance here. The Packers have had issues stopping power running attacks, giving up 112.8 rushing YPG (rank #13) and 4.5 YPC (rank #21).
The Rams passing attack is the real problem. They are averaging a decent 250.9 YPG (rank #13), but only 6.8 YPA (rank #19). QB Jared Goff isn’t very good. He’s completing 66.4% of his passes (rank #15), for 7.2 YPA (rank #20), with a 23rd ranked 90.1 QBR, 20 TDs and 13 picks. Making matters even worse, Goff is just 2 weeks removed from thumb surgery. The Packers have an above average pass D, giving up 221.2 passing YPG (rank #7) and 6.6 YPA (rank #12). Those aren’t great numbers, but they should be good enough against Goff. I have no confidence in Goff, especially playing in Green Bay in January. Goff in cold weather at Lambeau is a disaster waiting to happen.
The Rams are also rated as the 2nd most injured team left in the playoffs. All Pro T Aaron Donald left last week’s game with a rib injury and starting QB John Wolford left the game with a neck injury. WR Cooper Cupp also left the game late with a knee injury. Donald and Cupp could return for this game, but I doubt that they will be anywhere near 100%. Like I said, teasing the Packers down to where they just have to win the game seems like a no braoiner. Since this line dropped to -6.5 this morning, I’m also throwing a unit on the Packers ATS.
The only question was who do I tease along with them. My answers were the Ravens from +2.5 to +8.5 and the Chiefs from -10 to -4.
BALT @ BUD
I don’t know who’s going to win this game. My power ratings say this line should be somewhere around pick ‘em,
From what I’ve seen, when the Ravens have the ball, it’s going to be strength v weakness. The Ravens have the best running game in the league. They ran the ball a league leading 55.8% of the time and are averaging 191.9 rushing YPG and 5.5 YPC (both ranked #1). Last week, against the Titans, they ran for 236 yards and 6.7 YPC. QB Lamar Jackson alone accounted for 136 of those yards averaging 8.5 YPC. The key to beating the Ravens is stopping the run and forcing Jackson to beat you through the air. Can the Bills stop the Ravens running game? I doubt it. They are giving up a mediocre 119.6 rushing YPG (rank #17) and a poor 4.6 YPC (rank #26). Last week, the Colts rushed for 163 yards and 5.4 YPC against these Bills. I’m guessing that the Ravens will also be able to run on the Bills.
By contrast, when the Bills have the ball, it going to be strength v strength, They’re going to throw it. The Bills pass over 60% of the time. Their running game is very mediocre, but their passing game is very good. The Bills are averaging 288.8 passing YPG (rank #3) and 7.8 YPA (ranks #4). Last week, the Bills shredded the Colts for 324 passing yards and a whopping 12.5 YPA. However, the Ravens have a strong pass defense. They are giving up just 221 passing YPG (rank #6) and 5.9 YPA (rank #4). Will the Ravens completely shut down the Bills prolific passing game? Probably not, but I don’t see the Bills aerial attack shredding this Ravens pass D either.
I expected that we’d see money coming in on the Ravens and it already has. The line was already down to BALT +1 this morning and that’s before the public gets involved, so I got a great number yesterday. I think the Ravens can at least keep this within a TD, so I gladly took them +8.5.
CLEV @ KC
The line is currently Chiefs -10, but my power ratings say that the Chiefs should be favored by 6.5 to 7.5 points.
I give the Browns all the credit in the world for knocking off the Steelers on the road, at Heinz Field. That was impressive! However, the Browns did give up 37 points and 553 yards of offense to the Steelers. That was not impressive. Steeler QB Ben Rothlessburger threw for 501 yards and 7.4 YPA. The Browns didn’t stop the Steelers as much as the Steelers did. The five turnovers, three of which led to three Browns TDs, were just too much for the Steelers to overcome.
The Chiefs are a lot better than the Steelers and Patrick Mahomes is better than Ben Rothlisburger at this stage of their respective careers. Yes, the Chiefs have struggled to cover big point speads. They are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games, but until a meaningless Week 17 loss to the Chargers, in a game in which they were resting players including Mahomes, the Chiefs were on a 10-0 S/U run.
I do have one concern and that’s the Browns formidable rushing attack. They are averaging 148.4 rushing YPG (rank #3) and 4.8 YPC (rank #5). By contrast the Chiefs rushing D is less than stellar. They are giving up a mediocre 122.1 rushing YPG (rank #21) and 4.5 YPC (rank #17). If the Browns can run the ball effectively, they could hang in this game, but only if they don’t fall too far behind early and only if they can slow down Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs prolific passing attack. If the Chiefs happen to jump to a big lead early, that would force the Browns to abandon their running game and throw the ball. That’s the last thing that the Browns want.
Ben Rothlisberger threw for 505 yards and put up 37 points last week and I expect that Patrick Mahomes will also shred this leaky Browns pass D. I just don’t think that the Browns can keep up, and I don’t think they’ll get five turnovers from the Chiefs either. That also doesn’t take into account Andy Reid’s superb record coming off a bye. I don’t ever like laying double digits, so I teased the Chiefs down to -4. It’s not quite the “just win the game” scenario that I prefer, so it’s not ideal, but it’s close enough against this leaky Browns D.
BTW, I know that I have to win all three teasers to turn a profit. This week, if the Packers and Ravens both cash for me on Saturday, I will certainly consider hedging on Sunday.
BOL all, I might have more later, then again this could be it. We’ll see.