Betting this early, not sure where the lines going but I love it where it is...
BUFFALO BILLS -145 (also -2.5 -120)
The world is in love with the Ravens, hell I loved them yesterday myself and they won for me, but lets look a little closer. The Ravens struggled to put up big points against one of the worst defenses in the league. They scored 20 points, despite compiling over 400 yards, most alarming is their lack of efficiency scoring TDs in close, Lamar doesnt have great accuracy and thats whats needed to throw near the goal line. The run game was solid, and that should continue against anyone, however, the Bills just held Jonathan Taylor to 3.7 ypc on the ground, allowing Phil Rivers to throw all he wanted. I expect them to do the same, they will load up and slow the run game, and "allow" Lamar to throw as much as he wants.
Bottom line, the Ravens beat a flawed Titans team that wasnt as good as the 11-5 record they posted, the Bills "looked" a little shaky against a Colts team I believe is better than the 11-5 record they posted. The Colts played the most perfect game they were capable of, totaled 472 yards, no turnovers, 76 total plays, and TOP of 34 minutes, and they STILL lost despite all this! The Bills are REALLY good, and they're at home playing on a Saturday night at 8PM where it will surely be extremely cold, and I dont like Lamar's throws in the cold.
The public is already loving the Ravens, and they seem to have forgotten about the Bills. The Bills have won 7 straight and only lost one game at home (to the Chiefs) earlier in the season. The offense can do so many things, Allen is on another level, and in this game I am taking him over Lamar. The Baltimore defense was great against a poor gameplan yesterday who continued to run Derrick Henry up the middle when the Ravens had 9 guys waiting on it, and the Titans lacked the adjustments needed on offense. Tannehill couldnt beat the corners with his arm, Allen can beat them 10 different ways. Buffalo wins this one, I dont think its that close but I think the ML is a very fair price, and I may add here a parlay with another team. BUFFALO 29 BALTIMORE 12