I am going to go through the handicap of the Texans play I have this week. I mentioned it as a BIG play for me this weekend in Uncle Vito's post and was asked why. This is why...
1st of all, and maybe most importantly, this is a fade of Tennessee. When a team plays their most impressive game of the season on one of the isolated game nights...Thursday, Sunday, Monday or as in this special case it was on Tuesday. Bettors remember these great performances and invariably bet ON the teams that played so great their last game. What happens most of the time is that teams just cannot put together B2B great games. Falloff from a great game should be expected by bettors, but it is very tempting to play on teams that just played so well. In this special case that game also happened on a Tuesday, so we have a pretty rare scheduling situation. The Texans get 2 more days to prepare, that edge is built into the line and is one of the reasons why people are looking at this low number and thinking they are getting a gift with the unbeaten Titans facing a team that only last week got their 1st win of the season. That 1st win is key here as it gives the Texans some confidence they were lacking before the coaching change. That is the basic fundamentals of the handicap. When I can also work in some SDQLs to back a situation I like already, then we are in business.
1st SDQL that applies this week is this very simple one...PLAY ON division road teams on grass facing a good offensive team (at least 375 yds/game avg). Only one additional parameter is they are not dogs of 8.5 or more, that just ensures that we are betting on a team that is not over-matched. This SDQL goes back 9 years and has a winning record every year of at least 62.5%. The last 2 years teams are 16-5-2 ATS (76.2%) 8-2 ATS last year. Over the span of 9 years it is 53-20-3 ATS (72.6%), and like I said the yearly consistent winning is what I REALLY like about it, that tells me it isn't a fluke. In most cases this is also going to be contrarian, the public LOVES betting on good offenses at home. Here is the link to this one, you will see Cleveland is also in this situation this week, so you get a bonus play. lol
That by itself is significant re-enforcement to me, because the basic fundamental handicap of fading teams off their best performance of the season is one I will play every time. We had that situation just last week when the Chiefs came off an awesome dismantling of the Ravens on MNF and they then got beat SU by the Raiders in a game most people thought would be an absolute blowout. NOT. Here is SDQL #2 to re-enforce this already strong play.
This one says to play on division road dogs on grass off a home game playing against a good passing team (opponent avg 13 or more passing FD/game). Additional parameters are that the game is played between weeks 2 & 16, and the total is at least 40. To make the "why this works" easier to understand, I will break it down piece by piece.
1. Game is on grass=grass fields can be an equalizer, team speed is not as much of a factor. Since we are playing all dogs we don't want elite speed teams to have an advantage.
2. Off a home game=this is not a road weary team on an extended road trip
3. Playing a good passing team=several things
3a) The opponent may not be good running the ball to pick up 1st downs
3b) High powered passing offenses draw public action, people love betting on teams at home that can throw the ball well. Because of that, this is a contrarian angle.
4. Between weeks 2 & 16=one of the parameters is a team average passing 1st downs/game. I want more than 1 game played for that average to have any meaning. Games at the end of the season, especially week 17 are many times meaningless.
5. Total at least 40=Eliminating games with extremely low points expectations. In today's NFL these lower totals are so rare that this hardly ever even comes into play.
Teams in this situation are 25-6 ATS (80.6%) since 2014, this link spits out 3 plays this week...Houston, Cleveland and the Jets. I like all 3 of those this week...in that order.
2 more little bits of info...
The Titans are 0-9-1 ATS (-9.95 ppg) since Oct 07, 2007 as a favorite off a game as a dog in which they allowed at least seven points less than expected.
The Titans are 0-8 ATS (-12.00 ppg) since Oct 03, 2010 off an upset win when they are facing a team under .350 on the season.