Saturday results:
Bovada:
1pm NY Jets +7 winner
4pm Baltimore -13.5 winner
7pm PHI/WAS under 51.5 winner
10pm DAL/NYG under 55 loser (by 20)
MyBookie:
10am TEN/CAR under 46 loser
4pm BUF/DEN under 44 loser
6pm BAL/TB over 51 winner
10pm Washington +8.5 winner
5-3 (overall 96-64) - and all 3 of my losses were Unders.
Going forward, I going to have to pass on Unders. Not matter how much I like them, the scoring can come so suddenly, and in such bunches, that an under is never safe. I don't want to blindly take Overs either. However, the scores in the Bovada simulations - especially since they made the change/non-change to now label their sims as "rookie mode", are creeping higher.
I posted yesterday evening, while the Bengals were beating the Ravens, we could still buy the Bengals "win it all" future at a great price. The Bengals went on to lose anyway - and I threw $5 at a 500-1 chance for probably nothing. However, by the final game last night, Bovada was not listing the future prices for the conference that was in action at that moment. For example, when I looked for futures after 10pm ET start (Giants vs Cowboys), we could bet on futures for the AFC, but not the NFC.
As ajmallie has noted over the past few days, if a low-rated team can get themselves into the knockout round of 16, anything can happen. We'll be looking for other opportunities like that as this week's first group stage games play out. Speaking of AJ, if you see his post above on the IND/TEN game, that match up is for Monday at noon.
I'm gonna do a post later today on the movement in future prices after first round games. Nothing groundbreaking, pretty mundane expected stuff, but with this much variance in possible game outcomes there will be some real nuggets of gold to be found in these futures.
Sunday's card:
Bovada's Sim Classic (playing with 2019 rosters)
10am CLE at PIT..... -5 / 56.5
1pm DET at GB..... -13.5 / 55.5
4pm CHI at MIN..... -3.5 / 54.5
7pm AZ at SF......... -13 / 51.5
10pm LAR at SEA... -4.5 / 55
MyBookie (playing w/ rosters updated w/ 2020 draft picks, trades, FA signings, etc)
10am DAL at TEN... +7 / 49.5
12pm BUF at IND.... +5.5 / 47.5
2pm ATL at AZ........ +3.5 / 49.5
4pm NO at KC........ -2.5 / 54.5
6pm CLE at MIN..... -3.5 / 48.5
**8pm CLE at PIT...... pk / 48.5
**10pm CIN at BAL... -14 / 51.5
12am WAS at OAK... -3.5 / 49.5
**MB and sportsgamblingpodcast are running a single elimination tourney. You can see their updated bracket w/ previous scores here.
Picks will be up later this morning.