Alright guys, here is something we can all gamble on. If you listened to the Sleepy J pod or read the CBB forms, I have several affections in life. The gym, Summit League basketball, and the NFL draft (Sleepy can attest to this). Before we get started, the site below is a good place to look around at who is good at mock drafts because the Mel Kipers and Todd McShays of the world aren’t that good and I highly encourage you guys to follow the guys you never heard of. I personally switched off of them, fantastic decision.
Twitter handle @mockdraftdb (white background and a chemistry beaker for its icon)
Before I dive into the picks that I like and are available, I cannot stress this enough. Teams are dumb. Seriously, teams are super dumb at drafting. For example, Raiders last year at pick 4 and Giants 2 years ago when they drafted a RB over a QB. I will be updating this list as more and more come out, my guess is a lot of these props will come out in the 1st of 2nd week of April. This is a fluid situation market; things change a lot especially on the few days before the draft.
Lastly, this biggest downside to betting any of these right now is new info will come out, we have to wait a month before we can cash these, or a player does something stupid and destroys his stock. I will risk it for now.
First RB taken D’Andre Swift +100 (Draftkings or BetRivers)
Unfortunately, you could have had this prop a week ago for +130. I was an idiot and didn’t pull the trigger, I am pulling it here. My guess as I write this (March 18) is he will become the slight favorite to be the first RB off the board. A good twitter follow is @angelo_fantasy because he put together a nice thread of RBs with film analysis (his most recent post or on March 18 depending on when you read this). He has Swift going round 1 (and I agree for now) with other RBs going high round 2. I have seen a few mock drafts with Taylor going round 1 (generally Chiefs or Dolphins) but Swift it the best back in this draft and some of these back end round 1 teams could use a RB. The reason why Swift is a round 1 grade and why I think he is first off the board, he can pass block really well. This a tough trait for CFB backs to coming out and be good at.
The only other guy I can make an argument for going ahead of Swift is Taylor. He has some question marks in the pass catching game so I don’t think it’s a big issue for Swift going ahead of him especially at plus money. I have seen Taylor +130 going first off the board, go for it you agree with the pick.
Total offensive lineman Round 1 Under 6.5 -142 (FanDuel and BetAmerica at -140)
Another prop I lost some value is on is this one, I could have had at -112 but now stuck at -140 territory. I still played it because I am not sure who gets this to 7. The 6 guys I see going round 1 are:
I have not seen a respectable person (or anyone in general) give me 7 offensive linemen going round 1. I am not even sure who would be the 7th guy. This is a great OT class but a weak IOL class. On February 12th, Mike Renner had OT as the 2nd best position in this class (out of 11) and IOL at 7. Yes, teams are stupid at drafting. These IOL guys will go day 2.
First TE drafted Cole Kmet -110 (Draftkings and BetRivers)
This TE class stinks. Mike Renner had them rated as the worst position group in this draft. I have seen Kmet go in round 1 (mostly Pats). This TE class is terrible. At -110, this implies a 50% chance he goes first. I think it should be higher. The only other respectable TE is Brycen Hopkins (Purdue) but I am just am not seeing him being the first TE going.